Here’s the gut-check question for Pelosi who says that walls are immoral and don’t work.
============
Let’s start with the historical context…
In the 1980s, San Diego was known for its enticing climate … and its high crime rate.
Much of the crime was attributable to hombres (literally) coming across the border from Tijuana with bad intentions … not hard workers coming across for employment.
Then, in 1993, President Bill Clinton signed Operation Gatekeeper into law … and. in 2006, President George W. Bush signed the Secure Fences Act. During his term, President Obama’s budgets provided ample funding to complete the work authorized by “Gatekeeper” and “Secure Fences”.
What were the implications for San Diego?
Because of Gatekeeper and Secure Fences, right now the U.S.-Mexico border in San Diego has 12 miles of double fencing that stretches from the coast to the Otay Mesa Port of Entry.
After that, there are another 43 miles of “primary” fencing into and through the mountains in the eastern part of the county. Source
That was then. This is now.
Now, the Dem mantra is “Walls are immoral and don’t work.”
Let’s take a snapshot of the shutdown, starting with the demand side …
Seriously, has the partial government shutdown impacted you personally?
Admittedly, my sample isn’t projectable, but — save for a couple of furloughed “non-essentials” — I have yet to run into anybody who has been impacted by the shutdown.
ABC-WaPo did run a projectable poll and found that 18% of Americans say they have been inconvenienced by the shutdown.
Take the converse of the WaPo findings:
82% of Americans have not been inconvenienced by the shutdown.
That’s less than 1 in 5 … and, it includes the furloughed gov’t employees who have certainly been inconvenienced.
Bottom line: From a demand perspective, the shutdown hasn’t been a particularly bad deal.
What about the supply side – the impact on government operations ?
Among the aspects of the shutdown drama that make me want to scream are sympathy-soliciting headlines about furloughed government employees’ “lost wages”.
You know, presenting yourself as you really are … rather than exhibiting a fake persona.
Let’s illustrate the concept…
Last week, Sen. Elizabeth Warren tried to jumpstart her presidential ambitions (and erase the memories of her laughable DNA test).
At a climatic moment, she expressed her need for a cold one and started to chug a bee.
Authentic or not?
Her nemesis – President Trump – scored it as inauthentic, noting that it would have seemed more authentic if she had been wearing her native headdress.
I’ve gotten credits from Comcast when my cable service has gone out!
===============
Let’s set the stage:
On a macro level ….
1/4th of the Federal government’s “non-essential employees” have been furloughed for about 3 weeks.
Technical note: In this case, “furlough” means “paid vacation”, albeit with deferred pay for the remainder of the time off.
1/4th of the government’s “essential employees” have been reporting to work … and, had been getting paid until last Friday. Now, their pay is deferred until the end of the shutdown.
On a micro level, I loaded Turbo Tax over the weekend and did a first-cut at my 2018 taxes.
The combo of the macro and micro raised a logical question…
Dems and their surrogates snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
===============
For the record, I’m net positive about both the wall and the gov’t shutdown (or, as I like to call it: “the furloughing of non-essential government employees”).
But, frankly, I’m not very worked up about either.
With that relaxed perspective, I can enjoy the the entertainment value of the hysteria.
And, this was a great week for entertainment.
===============
Let’s jump to the week’s winner: Chuck & Nancy’s rebuttal.
I literally burst out laughing when they did their Bobby Jindal-like hallway entrance … to me, they looked a bit ghoulish … walking in from the catacombs.
Then they delivered their remarks in the fashion of animated Madam Trussaud wax manikins.
Many schools just don’t teach cursive handwriting any more.
============
Yesterday, we posted about how Johnny can’t write. That was in a macro sense: he can’t construct a compelling, logical argument since that skill is decreasingly taught and practiced in schools these days.
Today, let’s dive down to the literal level.
I was taken aback when a friend casually mentioned to me that his grandson – a freshman in college – “couldn’t even sign his name”.
I initially thought that the kid might have a learning disability, a physical handicap or was – for some weird reason – banned from signing legal documents.
Nope, the reason was more straightforward and pervasive than that…
Might induce some genuine empathy, motivate some constructive action … and forestall future government shutdowns.
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There was an interesting exchange at last week’s impromptu Trump press conference.
A reporter asked: “Administration personnel are due for a salary increase … will you be delaying them until the shutdown is resolved?”
Trump answered: “That’s a good idea. I’ll look into that.”
I think that the response surprised the reporter who probably expected a long-winded rationale for the pay increases.
And, the Q&A pushed one of my hot buttons: gov’t officials who insulate themselves from the burdens that they impose on us. Think: Medicare exceptions for Congressional staffers.
So, to avoid future government shutdowns, what not a simple legislative change: No member of the Senate, Congress or their staffs shall receive any compensation during the period when any part of the government is shutdown because of Congressional actions or inaction.”
BINGO!
My bet: the likelihood of a future shutdown would fall to near zero.
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Along a similar vein — I said it was one of my hot buttons — in a prior post, I wrote about how our dim-witted government officials put the brakes on school vouchers that would allow working folks to send their kids to private schools …. while sending their kids to swanky private schools.
According to The Atlantic …
As a presidential candidate, Jimmy Carter criticized “exclusive private schools that allow the children of the political and economic elite to avoid public schools that are considered dangerous or inferior.”
When he assumed office in 1977, he did something remarkable:
He enrolled his 9-year-old daughter, Amy, in a predominantly black Washington, D.C., public school.
Amy became the first child of a sitting U.S. president to attend a public school since 1906.
She still is.
Gotta give the man credit for walking the talk.
Former President Obama?
Not so much …
A Dept. of Education study found that students in the nation’s capital that were provided with vouchers allowing them to attend private school made “statistically significant gains in achievement.”
Despite that finding, then President Obama curtailed the program … and turned around and enrolled his daughters in Sidwell Friends – the swank private school of choice for the DC elite.
So, it wasn’t at all surprising that several sources found that many of the Democratic Senators who voted against school voucher advocate Betsy DeVos –- opt out of the public school system and send their off-spring to private schools.
OK, maybe they really thought that DeVos wasn’t as qualified as Obama’s basketball buddy, Arne Duncan, who presided for 7 years over declining test scores and “failing schools” headlines.
Or, maybe their pro-choice inclinations don’t really extend beyond their family & friends when it comes to education.
Education politics are big business in America, often pitting institutionalized interests like the NEA against parents and kids.
And, equally unfortunately, there are far too many people who are in a position to right the wrongs who are taking advantage of their ability to opt out of the discussion, at least as far as their own children are concerned.
Where education is concerned there’s one America for the elites, like members of Congress and the President, who send their children to private schools.
And, there’s one for everyone else, the regular people who are seeing the educational dreams they have for their children shattered on the altar of politics.
Ouch: Make that: I don’t own Apple stock directly.
==============
Except for a couple of legacy stocks, I shy away from individual company stocks.
My history has been dismal when I’ve tried to pick individual stocks. I either buy at the peak … or, hold winners until they become losers.
So, my equity investments tend to be in broad market ETFs and low-cost mutual funds.
I used to think that they insulated me from wild swings in individual stock prices.
If true, yesterday’s steep drop in Apple should have been lost in the round.
Not so, as evidenced by the hammering that the Dow and S&P took yesterday.
One analysis I saw indicated that Apple was directly responsible for over 15% of the Dow’s decline … and indirectly responsible for the rest … either by dragging other tech stocks with it, or by seeming to be a leading indicator of economic troubles ahead.
The current partial government shutdown showcases one of my hot-button issues.
Best that I can tell, about 1 million government employees are impacted: about half of them are “essential” employees who must report to work and will be paid when the budget is resolved.
The other 500,000 are classified as “non-essential” … they get to stay home for the duration … and, will also be paid when the budget is resolved.
That raises 2 questions:
(1) why should non-essential employees get a better deal than essential employees (who have to work for their pay)?
(2) Why do non-essential employees ever have to report to work, and why do they ever get paid?
As I’ve said, I’ve been on this issue for awhile … and the shutdown gives me an opportunity to reprise a post on the subject from last winter … when you read “snow storm”, simply substitute the word “shutdown”.
Seriously, do you care one way or another?
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Have noted some asynchronous behavior in the past week or two…
Cable news pundits lead most broadcasts with deep concern: “It’s day (insert number here) of the partial government shutdown and no end in sight.”
Clarification: On MSNBC and CNN, the word “partial” is replaced by “Trump”
But, holiday chit-chit among friends and family has taken a much different track…
============
On no occasion has the topic come up in the normal course of conversation.
If prompted, I’ve gotten responses ranging from “What government shutdown?” … to “I hope it stays closed.”
Only one instance of anybody being impacted: A government lawyer who was appreciative that she was getting an additional week or two of vacation … knowing full well that she’d eventually receive back pack for the time off.
While the MSM is positioning the stalemate as the greatest disaster since Katrina, it’s not evident to me that the public is buying into the hysteria.
Many pundits say that the recent stock market volatility and steep decline are at least partially attributable to algorithmic trading … complex analytical models with decision rules executed in real time by computers … think: flash trading.
The current relevance prompted me to flashback to a very cool 15 minute TED Talk … my all time favorite.
In the talk, tech entrepreneur Kevin Slavin tells how algorithms have reached across industries and into every day life.
A couple of lines caught my attention:
There are more than 2,000 physicists working on Wall Street developing operational algorithms
Massive scale speed trading is dependent on millisecond read & respond rates …
So, firms are physically literally locating right next to internet routing hubs to cut transmission times … or, setting up shop right at the exchanges.
And, of course, there isn’t time for human intervention and control
“We may be building whole worlds we don’t really understand, and can’t control.”
Obviously, Slavin comes down on the side of the quants.
It’s worth listening to this pitch … a very engaging geek who may be onto something big.
Like most investors, I’ve started paying closer attention to interest rates.
The initial motivation: came this summer via my trusty mortgage ARM — which hovered around 3% for a decade or so — jumped to 4% last year and is being reset to 5% this year.
Ouch.
Now, with the Fed “normalizing” interest rates, i.e. jacking rates up, I’m on full alert.
… and, the market responds predictably. ==========
Yesterday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell took a meat ax to the market.
As expected, the Fed inched interest rates up a notch — as planned, and as expected.
That’s OK … the economy need to be weaned off of near-zero interest rates.
But, despite indicators of an economic slowdown, Powell said there are still more interest rate boosts on the table for next year … count on ’em.
Pundits expected a more wiggle-roomed statement that the Fed would be watching what happens and be driven by the data.
Then, he deliver the coup de grace, saying “financial markets and the Fed’s balance sheet don’t matter.”
Au contraire, Mr. Powell.
The financial markets matter to folks holding financial assets … and the Fed’s balance sheet – a correlate to the supply of money in the economy – is a major determinant of financial markets’ strength.
Need proof?
===========
Let’s start by taking a stroll down memory lane ….
The article summarized an econometric study (think: big, hairy financial model) that demonstrated a tight link between the amount of money floating around and, on a slightly time-delayed basis, the price of stocks.
That is, when the Fed adds liquidity into the market (think: “quantitative easing”), much of money flows into the stock market – rocket-boosting stock prices.
And the opposite is true. When the Fed tightens, stock prices fall back into earth orbit.
Last week, we posted that Costco – which sells almost 1 million chickens each day – is opening its own mega chicken farm to partially satisfy its needs.
… you can control the way you respond to everything that happens to you.
===========
That’s one of the admonitions from my adios lecture to my MBA students.
I was amped when Condi Rice used a version of the line in one of her speeches
Other snippets from her speech that caught my eye are below …
The world is a chaotic and dangerous place.
The U.S. has since the end of World War II had an answer – we stand for free peoples and free markets, we are willing to support and defend them – we will sustain a balance of power that favors freedom.
Our friends and allies must be able to trust us. From Israel to Poland to the Philippines to Colombia and across the world — they must know that we are reliable and consistent and determined. And our adversaries must have no reason to doubt our resolve — because peace really does come through strength.
When the world looks at us today they see an American government that cannot live within its means. They see a government that continues to borrow money, mortgaging the future of generations to come. The world knows that when a nation loses control of its finances, it eventually loses control of its destiny. That is not the America that has inspired others to follow our lead.
The essence of America – that which really unites us — is not ethnicity, or nationality or religion – it is an idea — and what an idea it is: That you can come from humble circumstances and do great things. That it doesn’t matter where you came from but where you are going.
Ours has never been a narrative of grievance and entitlement. We have not believed that I am doing poorly because you are doing well.
We have been successful too because Americans have known that one’s status at birth was not a permanent station in life. You might not be able to control your circumstances but you could control your response to your circumstances
Today, when I can look at your zip code and can tell whether you are going to get a good education – can I really say that it doesn’t matter where you came from – it matters where you are going. The crisis in K-12 education is a grave threat to who we are.
We need to have high standards for our students – self-esteem comes from achievement not from lax standards and false praise. And we need to give parents greater choice – particularly poor parents whose kids – most often minorities — are trapped in failing neighborhood schools.
And on a personal note– a little girl grows up in Jim Crow Birmingham – the most segregated big city in America – her parents can’t take her to a movie theater or a restaurant – but they make her believe that even though she can’t have a hamburger at the Woolworth’s lunch counter – she can be President of the United States and she becomes the Secretary of State.
Both sides are getting way too serious either defending or skewering the guy.
So, let’s step back and start the week with a chuckle.
========
Yeah, I’m still a fan of America’s Got Talent .
I watch it so that you don’t have to … except for the highlights that I dish to loyal readers.
Here’s a hilarious one for you, whether you’re pro-Trump or anti-Trump …
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The back story:
When the Singing Trump walked on stage for his first audition, the crowd booed loudly … remember, it is an NBC show.
Australian “Mel B.” – former Spice Girl and now an AGT judge – joined the booing and gave him a disqualifying ‘red X’ as soon as he started his act. Politically motivated?
The other judges passed him on to the next round.
This time, crowd was friendlier and Mel B. said
“I have to eat my words and apologize. You’re just like ‘him’ and you entertained us with the best 2 Backstreet Boys songs ever.”
Trust me … and start the week with a smile (and maybe a laugh).
Costco is shelling out $440 million to open a Nebraska chicken farm.
Why is Costco doing it?
“To partially escape the American chicken monopoly run by the likes of Tyson, Pilgrim’s Pride and Perdue.”
Technical note to CNBC: A monopoly has only one supplier. A duopoly has two. When there are three, it’s a concentrated competitive market.
The self-operated farm provide Costco with 100 million chickens … 40 percent of its yearly chicken needs.
Doing the arithmetic, that means that Costco goes through about 250 million chickens every year.
That’s a lot of chickens but pales in comparison to KFC which reportedly goes through 3 or 4 times as many.
Personal note: Many, many years ago, I interviewed for a position at KFC as a chicken buyer. I was recruited because I had an economics degree and had worked for a large grocery store chain.
Many of the cited studies on human behavior are pure bunk.
For example:
The 270 researchers working under the auspices of the Center for Open Science spent four years trying to reproduce 100 leading psychology experiments.
They successfully replicated only 39 of the 100 psychology experiments.
A survey of 1,576 scientists published in Nature reported that “more than 70% of researchers have tried and failed to reproduce another scientist’s experiments … and more than half are unable to reproduce their own experiments.”
Dems and their media buddies keep hammering Trump for being too cozy with Russia.
The slightest innuendo or chance encounter (think: Trump chats with Putin at formal G20 dinner”) gets blown up into a faux cause celebre that quickly evaporates.
Imagine for a moment if President Trump were to circumvent the Senate’s “advise & consent” rules by appointing people to his administration who play high-level cabinet-like roles … but aren’t subject to Senate approval.
The screaming would be deafening.
And, imagine if Trump were to call the process-circumventing appointees “Czars”.
Russia ! Russia !!! Russia !!!!
Clear evidence of collusion: Impeach for treason.
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Only problem with the story: Trump hasn’t done it, but Obama did … to a gleeful, encouraging press that argued “he had no choice but to do it.”
For a trip down memory lane, here’s a list of Obama’s Czars….
The Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) recently released its survey results for math “literacy” … and, the results aren’t pretty.
The average for 15-year-old U.S. students slipped to 470 on the PISA scale … down about 3.5% from 2009 … ranking the U.S. #40 among developed nations (see list at end of this post) … 20 points lower than the average of the 35 OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries.
The scores differential versus the OECD countries is roughly equal for the average, 25th percentile and 90th percentile … refuting claims that “our” best are head-to-head competitive with the the rest of the world’s best.
Reason #15: Did Paris just pull out of the “Paris Accords”?
============ For the record: I’m neither a denier nor a zealot … so, according to British writer (& phrase-coiner) Matt Ridley, I’m a “lukewarmer”. ============
In car-speak, the rubber seems to be hitting the road in Paris.
In case you missed it, French President Macron tried to slap-on a gas tax to save the planet by discouraging petrol consumption, (i.e. driving).
The result: a political crisis for Macron … more than a million protesters … some rioting in the streets … approval ratings in the 20s.
Apparently, French citizens who don’t travel by Metro, Uber or private jets took the gas-tax personally since it impacts their get-to-work costs and, thus, flattens their wallets in a statistically significant way.
As Gomer Pyle would say: “Surprise, surprise, surprise”
New study of NYC charter schools provide compelling evidence.
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I recently stumbled upon an interesting research study by CREDO – the Center for Research on Education Outcomes at Stanford University.
CREDO was established to gather and analyze empirical evidence about education reform and student performance (i.e. “outcomes) with a particular emphasis on innovative programs, curricula, policies and accountability practices.
A recent report focused on New York City charter schools since “New York City has been the nexus of public discourse about charter schools for nearly two decades but only a fraction of that debate has been grounded in well researched evidence about charter schools’ impact on student outcomes.”
Earlier this week we posted about how Asian-American students are being admitted to selective elite high schools at increasingly high rates.
Why?
Because they are academic achievers.
Why?
In part because Asian-American parents place a high priority on education, drive their children to excel (especially in STEM academics) and provide their kids with extensive extracurricular learning experiences.
And, oh yeah, they’ve probably gone to college … providing good role modeling and ready tutoring capabilities.
Browsing it, a couple of sets of numbers caught my eye ….
Let’s start with math scores/
Two big takeaways:
(1) The gap between boys and girls narrowed from the 40 point difference in the 1970s to about 25 points … but has remained fairly constant at that level for about the past 20 years
(2) Scores for both boys and girls have been falling for the past dozen years or so.
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OK, boys outscore girls in math, but girls do better on the verbal part of the SATs, right?
One of my sons works downtown in Baltimore’s Harbor East complex … his office building is across from the posh Four Seasons Hotel.
You get the idea…
His morning commute is about an hour … with the last leg running through Baltimore’s city streets. The finish line is thru a busy intersection – the only way to his workplace.
Heartwarming story that raised $400,000 takes a strange twist.
====================
Just in case you missed it…
In November 2017, a homeless guy (Johnny Bobbitt) noticed that a driver (Kate McClure) was stranded on a roadside … out of gas with no money or credit cards.
So, Bobbitt gave “his last $20” to McClure to buy a couple of gallons of gas.
McClure went on a PR blitz praising Bobbitt’s generosity.
Then, McClure and her boyfriend (Mark D’Amico) set up a GoFundMe page to lift Bobbitt from homeless.
The GoFundMe campaign raised almost $400,000.
Bobbitt reportedly set up a bank account, bought a house and a truck, and started looking for job.
A life-changing story that restores your faith in people, right?
In class, I always preached: Don’t underestimate the “power of free”.
Here’s a real life example to prove the point.
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Everybody knows that Amazon’s free shipping program has been a resounding success.
So much so. that the company has announced that it will be moving the minimum qualifying order up from $25 to $35 … inducing shoppers to fill their carts fuller or switch to the highly profitable Amazon Prime program.
May be a classic case of the “winner’s curse” … or just loser’s lament.
============
Well, Amazon finally reached a decision re: HQ2.
Err, make that HQ2 and HQ3
Rather than the ballyhooed 50,000 jobs in one locale somewhere in the U.S., Amazon had a last minute change of heart and split the spoils between 2 east coast metro areas:: HQ2 in Crystal City. VA … HQ3 in Long Island City, NY (25,000 jobs).
WSJ summarized Amazon’s stated criteria … and estimated where both VA and NYC score.
Looks pretty analytical, right?
But, many observers retro-conclude that the fix was in from the start.
Predictable places?
Yep,
DC because it’s the nation’s capital and proximate to the goldmine of government business (of which, Amazon is already a major player).
NYC because it’s the financial and media capital of the world (where Google has already staked a big claim).
Both DC and NYC because they’re located on the east coast (pundits say that Heartland locales were never serious contenders) … and because those local governments have the deepest pockets.
================
So far, there don’t seem to be many current residents dancing in the streets.
The Economist and YouGov, a pollster, have surveyed thousands of Americans and built a statistical model to predict political party preferences.
Think: generic ballot for Congressional elections.
What did they find?
America’s founding fathers envisioned a republic in which free-thinking voters would carefully consider the proposals of office-seekers.
Today, however, demography seems to govern voters’ choices.
Specifically, Economist and YouGov identified a dozen demographic characteristics that highly predicted how people would vote in Congressional elections.
Post-election, can they muscle up to pull us together?
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A lot of punditry these days about American Tribalism … categorizing people by common interests … usually with a demographic slant (i.e. race. gender, and location – urban, rural; coastal or Heartland).
Those “tribes” are usually characterized as warring factions with little in common.
The result: sharp differences and apparently intractable political polarization.
==============
An organization called More in Common did some research that takes a different cut at the situation.
Their study – America’s Hidden Tribes – identified seven distinct groups of Americans. These are our Hidden Tribes of America: distinguished not by who they are or what they look like, but what they believe. (Below – at end of this post – are descriptions of the groups)
Brace for 2 years of Congressional theatrics, legislative gridlock, Executive Orders and judicial appointments.
============
Here are a couple of morning after thoughts from the election:
Big win for prognosticators … on balance, the election turned out the way Silver, et. al., said it would – split decision with an expanded GOP majority in the Senate.
Money down rabbit holes … big money bets by Bloomberg, Streyer, Soros, etc., made for some tight races, but no wins.
Obama was a non-factor … the candidates that he stumped for came up short: Gillum, Abrams, Cordray (former head of BHO’s CFPB)
So were the celebs … think: Oprah, Buffett, oh yeah, Taylor Swift.
MSNBC first with many calls … I was flipping channels and MSNBC beat Fox to the punch on many calls (e.g. Cruz over Beto); big exception was Fox’s early call that the House would flip.
Another Reid Rule kicks in … remember how Harry Reid refused to take up hundreds of bills passed by the GOP led Congress? Well, what goes around, comes around … gridlock is alive and well.
Time for “pen and phone” … remember how a stymied Obama turned Executive Orders into a governance art form? A favorable judiciary looked the other way as Congress was rendered inconsequential. Bet on Trump to apply the precedent.
Here come the judges … no secret that the GOP will use its Senate majority to pack the courts with Constitutionalists … again, big thanks to Harry Reid for implementing the nuclear option.
Tax migrants sigh relief … couple of close calls – especially Florida – but tax & spend progressives were fended off … whew!
Stock market is up … past couple of days have been good and today’s futures are up … let’s see if that trend is enduring.
Nate Silver is the Democrat’s predictor of choice.
Remember, he’s the guru who said – on the day before the 2016 election – that Hillary had a greater than 90% chance of winning.
Oops.
Of course, he retroactively said that he was talking about the popular vote – not the pesky electoral college …. and Hillary’s 90% meant conversely that Trump had a slim statistical chance that happened to materialize..
Vindicated, right?
So, what is Silver saying about today’s elections?
Cutting to the chase, he says that Democrats have an 86% chance of taking control of the House.
But, wiser with age, Nate is explicitly hedging his bet this time….
==============
Here’s Silver’s final pre-election banner headline:
Directly on-point, he says:
Hmmm
Could it be that the polling data is “systematically wrong” … again?
Here’s the main reason why YOUR health insurance premiums have gone up.
Since Dems have made pre-existing conditions a centerpiece in their midterm campaigns, lets flashback to a 2009 post which injected some sobering facts into the debate…
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All the healthcare attention seems to be on the 20 million people who are getting insurance via Extended Medicaid or ObamaCare Exchanges.
Virtually no light is being shined on the vast majority of folks who are covered by employer plans.
Case-in-point: the soaring premiums being paid by employees … hardly the $2,500 reduction that was promised.
Here’s one of the reasons that premiums have gone up not down …
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Most people – probably bordering on all – would agree that people with pre-existing conditions should be able to get health insurance.
I accept that as a non-debatable point.
But, I got curious about the economics of so-called “guaranteed coverage”… i.e. how much does it cost, and who pays for it?
Specifically, for folks covered by employer plans, how much of their increase in health insurance premiums over the past couple of years is attributable to guaranteed coverage?
Not really: it just covered more people with health insurance?
Since Dems are making ObamaCare an election issue, let’s flashback to a prior post and inject some facts…
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In my consulting / problem-solving class, I emphasize asking the right question before starting to gather data, doing analyses, drawing conclusions and making recommendations.
Makes sense, doesn’t it?
Then, would someone please explain to me why the politcos (on both sides) obsess over health insurance coverage (how many people are covered) and largely ignore the quantity & quality healthcare that Americans are getting?
Since Dems are making ObamaCare a midterm’s election issue, let’s flashback to a prior post and inject some facts.
In 2016 (Obama’s last year in office), employees paid $11,000 out-of-pocket for healthcare … up $2,500 since 2012.
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Milliman – a well-regarded actuarial consulting” firm – has published an annual recap of healthcare spending since 2001.
The Milliman Medical Index tracks the total costs of providing health care to an average family of four covered by an employer-sponsored “preferred provider plan” … that’s about 155 million employees and their dependents.
The total includes the health insurance premiums paid by both the employer and the employee, as well as the actual expenditures for health care paid by the insurance plan and out of pocket by the insured family.
The big news: In 2016, the average healthcare costs for a family of 4 surpassed $25,000 for the first time … the $25,826 is triple the cost to provide health care for the same family in 2001 … and up about $5,000 since 2012.
======
The bad(est) news is the increased proportion of the healthcare costs being shouldered by individual employees …
Since Dems are making a big deal of ObamaCare in the mid-terms, let’s flashback to a November 2014 post ….
Once again, they’re counting on the “stupidity of the American people.” (<= their words, not mine!)
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Even if you believe that “the end justifies the means”, this has gotta make your skin crawl.
Some background: Prof. Jonathan Gruber is an MIT economist who helped on RomneyCare in Massachusetts and was one of the primary architects of ObamaCare.
He was caught on video speaking quite frankly about the crafting of ObamaCare.
His basic message:
“The bill was written in a tortured way … to be sure that the CBO didn’t score the mandate as a tax … otherwise the bill would die … so, it was written to do that.
With regards to the subsides … if people figured out that healthy pay in to give sick people money, it wouldn’t have passed … lack of transparency is a huge political advantage.
Basically, call it the stupidity of the American voter or what … that was critical to getting the bill to pass … yeah, it would be better to be transparent, but I’d rather have this law than not.”
Watch the video … it’s even more chilling to hear Prof. Gruber say the words: “obfuscate” and “bank on American stupidity”.
How do these guys sleep at night?
P.S. Another Gruber video got some wide play..
He’s on tape saying that the specific language in the bill that only provided subsidies for folks going through state exchanges was intentional to motivate states to build exchanges,
ObamaCare supporters started claiming that it was just a typo that didn’t represent intent.
The Supreme Court agreed with them … with life & death consequence for ObamaCare.
As Forrest Gump would say:” Stupid is as stupid does.”
The Homa Files 