February 15, 2017
Long ago, I was community organized.
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The sour-grape Dems who have taken to mass-disrupting GOP town halls brought some memories out of long-term storage …
Way back in the 70s, we moved to Chicago (for a 2nd time).
We bought a cute little ranch that backed up to a large vacant parcel of land.
The real estate agent said that it was wetlands that couldn’t ever be developed.
If you can’t believe your real estate agent, who can you trust, right?
Well, as soon as the moving trucks pulled out, a couple of our next door neighbors came walking up the drive.
Friendly neighborhood, I thought.
But, their first words: “What do you think of the apartments that are going to be built on the vacant parcel – starting 10 fee from our lot lines?”
Uh-oh. Panic city.
Got an invite to meet more neighbors at a “stop the apartments” get together.
We went, and got to meet Father Greg – a young Catholic priest who said he was a community organizer and could help us stand up to the town chieftains and the developer.
Sounded good to me.
His prescription: start barging into town meetings, making a big ruckus.
“Bring babies if you have any … bring ‘em hungry and, if necessary, pinch them – not to hurt them, but to make them cry.”
He told us that those were some of the “Rules” of community organizing.
At the time, I didn’t think to ask: “What Rules?”
But, now I know …
Father Greg wasn’t preaching from the Good Book, but right out of Saul Alinsky’s “Rules for Radicals”.
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As a public service, just in case you’re unfamiliar with Alinsky’s rules, here’s a short-form version that’ll help you understand the Dems strategy….
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Posted in Alinsky, Saul, Rules for Radicals | 1 Comment »
February 14, 2017
Liberal talking point has a few holes …
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A near-viral liberal assertion these days is that the Constitution protects all people, not just Americans.
Sorry, Charlie … that’s just not true.
For openers, glance at the Preamble to the Constitution
Note that it says “We the people of the United States … not “We the people from everywhere around the globe”
And it says “… to secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity” … not “… to anybody from anywhere on the planet who may sneak across our borders.”
Seems like a clear (and narrow) definition to me.
Some may not like that proclamation, but that’s the way it reads, folks.
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OK, let’s give the libs some slack …
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February 13, 2017
Kellyanne’s gaffe brought back memories of Boss Daley.
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Big bruhaha last week when Kellyanne Conway — the first woman to ever run a successful Presidential campaign – was asked in an interview:
“So, what do you think of Nordstrom dropping Ivanka’s Trump’s line of fashions?”
“Go buy Ivanka’s stuff is what I would say,” Ms. Conway said in an interview with Fox News, speaking from the White House briefing room.
“I’m going to give a free commercial here: Go buy it today, everybody; you can find it online.”
Oops.
Double oops in this time of political correctness and diminished senses-of-humor.
According to the NY Times: “Legal experts said Ms. Conway might have violated a federal ethics rule against endorsing products or promoting an associate’s financial interests.”
Certainly an ill-advised comment, but strikes me as a molehill being elevated to mountain status.
The ruckus brought back memories of my days living in Chicago…
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Posted in Conway, Kellyanne, Daley, Mayor Richard J., Nepotism | 1 Comment »
February 10, 2017
Classical educators argued that these disciplines are the building blocks of reasoning, problem-solving and critical thinking.
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The courses that I teach contain a heavy dose of problem-solving skills.
Early on, I assert my belief that that problem-solving skills can be taught – and, more importantly, learned – and set about to prove the point.
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I’ve been doing some summer reading on the topic of reasoning & problem-solving and learned:
“For twenty-six hundred years many philosophers and educators have been confident that reasoning could be taught.”
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February 9, 2017
Are they drawing that much intellectual capital and talent from Iraq, Iran, Syria, Somalia, Sudan, Libya, and Yemen?
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According to ABC News: “Silicon Valley’s biggest companies are taking a strong stand against President Donald Trump’s travel ban, saying high tech needs immigrants’ creativity and energy to stay competitive.”
“About 58 percent of the engineers and other high-skill employees in Silicon Valley were born outside the U.S.”
OK, I get that tech companies need foreign talent …
But, silly me, I thought they were coming from places like India, China, Russia, Korea.
Nope.
We’re talking about some of the science centers of the world: Iraq, Iran, Syria, Somalia, Sudan, Libya, and Yemen.
Really?
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All of which begs another question.
Are the schools and technical training that much better in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Somalia, Sudan, Libya, and Yemen than they are in the U.S.?
If that’s the case, why aren’t the tech companies ‘all in’ to fixing the American education system.
Strikes me that would be a better use of tech company time & money than rallying to keep a constant flow coming from 7 Obama-identified terrorist hotspots.
This one really baffles me.
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#HomaFiles
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Posted in Immigration, Technology, Trumo, President Donald | Leave a Comment »
February 8, 2017
Math scores dropped since 2009 … U.S. now trails 39 countries.
Strikes me that Duncan is an easy act for DeVos to follow as Education Secretary..
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The Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) recently released its 2015 survey results for math “literacy” … and, the results aren’t pretty.
The average for 15-year-old U.S. students slipped to 470 on the PISA scale … down about 3.5% from 2009 … ranking the U.S. #40 among developed nations (see list at end of this post) … 20 points lower than the average of the 35 OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries.
The scores differential versus the OECD countries is roughly equal for the average, 25th percentile and 90th percentile … refuting claims that “our” best are head-to-head competitive with the the rest of the world’s best.
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Digging a bit deeper into the numbers ….
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Posted in Education - Academics, IQ - IQ Scores, Math & Quant Skills | 3 Comments »
February 7, 2017
Don’t memorize anything that you can lookup (<=bad advice!)
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First, some background …
The tests I give my students always include some questions that can reasonably be tagged “memorization”.
Some students are repulsed by them them and shout the cultural refrain: “Don’t memorize anything that you can look up.”
The apparent thinking: You’ve only got a limited amount of space in your brain, so don’t clog it with an overload of information … only store the stuff you can’t look-up.
What’s wrong with that argument?
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Posted in Cognition, Cognitive behavior, Digital amnesia, Memory | 1 Comment »
February 6, 2017
Study: Half of people “remember” events that never happened
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According to a recent study, once a person hears that a fictional event happened, there’s a 50/50 chance that they will believe that it took place and start to embellish it with details, even if the imaginary event is of a personal nature.
For example, researchers “primed” subjects with fake (but relatively harmless) memories, such as taking a childhood hot-air balloon ride or pulling a prank on a friend.
Researchers intimated that the imaginary events were real.
And, the result …
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Posted in Fake news, Memory, News sources, Psychological Traps | Leave a Comment »
February 3, 2017
More than you think, they may impact your chances of getting an interview.
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Interesting study reported in HBR …
The study investigated whether applicants got invited to interview at highly prestigious law firms (though the findings are probably generalizable to other top-notch professional firms).
Here’s the drill:
Imagine four applicants, all of whom attend the same, selective second-tier law school.
They all have phenomenal grade point averages, are on law review, and have identical, highly relevant work experiences.
The only differences are whether they are male or female and if their extracurricular activities suggest they come from a higher-class or lower-class background.
Who gets invited to interview?
More specifically, the researchers used a technique — known as the resume audit method — randomly assigning different items to the resumes and sending applications to real employers to see how they affect the probability of being called back for a job interview.
All applicants were from 2nd tier schools (where top firms don’t typically do on campus interviewing).
All educational, academic, and work-related achievements were identical between the fictitious candidates.
To test gender effects, the applicants were first-named James or Julia.
To “signal” social status, last names were either prestigious sounding “Cabot” or more common “Clark” … and commonly used and and often required portions of resumes were varied: awards and extracurricular activities:
The experiment confirmed some expectations, but there were also surprises …
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Posted in Careers & Interviewing, Gender equality, inequality | Leave a Comment »
February 2, 2017
The AP calls it “unsettling” … “governing-by-upheaval” to recast the role of government.
A historian says that Trump’s style is a mixture: “a whiff of Reaganism” with “plays reminiscent of Richard Nixon”,
My take: President Trump’s 1st week in office calls for a reprise of a HomaFiles post from August 2015 … slightly ahead of its time !
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Many of you may be too young to have witnessed and remember, but…
In the 1972 Olympics, the polished U.S. boxing team was predicted to sweep the competition.
But, something happened on the way to the medals’ platform that shocked the sporting world.
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Here’s the story and why Trump’s first days in office jogged my memory of the 1972 Olympics …
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Posted in Boxing, Cuba - Cuban, Olympics, Sports - Games - Recreation, Trump, Donald | Leave a Comment »
February 1, 2017
But, you have to read beneath the headline !
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Reuters issued one of the 1st polls on attitudes towards Trump’s travel ban on people from President Obama’s list of 7 terrorist hotspots: Iraq, Iran, Syria, Somalia, Sudan, Libya, and Yemen.
The headline:
Of course, we hate to get picky, but if you add together “make you safer” and “keep you safe”, the headline would read “majority think travel plan keeps America safe (or safer)”
But, that doesn’t fit the narrative, I guess.
Here’s the bigger story (that should have been in the headline).
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Posted in Immigration, Terrorism, Trump, Donald | 1 Comment »
January 31, 2017
Well, then quit browsing the Internet during class.
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A recent study by psychology researchers at Michigan State University investigated students’ actual Internet usage during classes.
The students agreed to have their in-class browsing activity monitored .
The researchers then matched the browsing activity with the students’ self-reported browsing behavior, their overall academic readiness (think: SAT / ACT scores), their self-reported motivation and interest in the class, and their performance on the course’s final exam.
Here’s what the researchers discovered …
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Posted in Computers & PCs, Education - Academics, Internet - Soc Networking | Leave a Comment »
January 30, 2017
“Retrain and relocate” sounds so reasonable … unless you’re the one needing to retrain & relocate.
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When the Obama administration declared war on coal, and Hillary famously declared “we’re going to put a lot of coal companies out of business and a lot of coal miners out of work” … most government employees whopped and hollered in delight.
Their advice: Shake it off, coal miners.
Go back to school and get trained as a java programmer (even if that’s a quantum leap from your skills, education and interests … and as natural as learning to speak Swahili).
Move to thriving locales like Austin or Palo Alto (even if it means leaving 3 generations of family and friends behind).
Suck it up and turn the page, bro.
You’ve got to embrace change and adapt to the changing times (even if the change is artificially induced by government know-it-alls)
Well, it looks like the worm has turned …
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Posted in Employment - Jobs, Government Employees, Unemployment | 2 Comments »
January 27, 2017
Connecting some research “dots” suggests that may be the case.
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A recent Bankrate.com survey says that 40% of respondents or their immediate family ran into a major unexpected expense last year.
That’s a problem since most Americans (63%) don’t have enough budget-cushion or savings to cover an unexpected $1,000 expense (think, medical bill, house or car repair).
According to the poll, only 37% said they would be able to take the money directly from savings; the rest said they would try to cut expenses (24%), use their credit cards (15%) or borrow money from friends & family (15%). About 1 in 10 had no idea what they’d do.
Predictably, those with higher incomes were most likely to say they would be able to tap savings for emergencies or divert some discretionary spending.
75% of people in households making less than $50,000 a year and 2/3s of those making between $50,000 and $100,000 would have difficulty coming up with $1,000 to cover an unexpected bill.
Even for the wealthiest 20% — households making more than $100,000 a year — more than 1 in 3 say they would have some difficulty coming up with $1,000. Source
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Obviously, the threat of a large, unexpected expense is emotionally daunting to most Americans.
“It definitely adds stress to everyday life. It hangs over you.”
To make matters worse, there is some evidence that the financial stress may impair “cognitive functioning” – that is, dent a person’s IQ.
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Posted in Cognitive functioning, Economics, Household budgets, IQ - IQ Scores, Jobs - Unemployment | Leave a Comment »
January 26, 2017
Since tax reform is on the front burner, it’s time for some tax facts.
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Americans pay a tad over $5 trillion in taxes to the Feds, States and Local Governments.
Technical note: In government parlance, the taxes are called “revenue”.
By taxing authority
Drilling down, the $5 trillion is split roughly 50%-30%-20% to the Feds, States and Locals, respectively
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By type of tax
Roughly 1/3 of the $5 trillion is income taxes individual and corporate)
… about 1/4 is ad valorem taxes (think sales and property taxes)
… just under 1/5 are social insurance (i.e. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid)
… slightly more than 1/5 are fees and charges (think tolls, business licenses)
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Income taxes
Roughly 1/3 of the $5 trillion – about $1.8 trillion — is income taxes
… 83.4% are individual income taxes; only 16.6% are corporate income taxes
… about 80% of income taxes go to the Feds; around 20% goes to the States & Locals
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Ad-valorem taxes
Roughly 1/4 of the $5 trillion in total taxes paid – about $1.2 trillion – is ad-valorem taxes – taxes paid based on the value of something bought or owned.
… about 40% of ad-valorem taxes are Local property taxes
… about 1/3 are Sales Taxes … going mostly to the States
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Social Insurance
Roughly 1/5 of the $5 trillion in total taxes paid – about $961 billion – is social insurance – with about 80% going to the Feds
… roughly 60% of the social insurance payments going to the Feds is for Social Security
… almost 1/4 of the social insurance payments going to the Feds is for Medicare.
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Pulling it all together Ken’s Rosetta Stone of Taxes
All the details — now much? to whom? for what?
Click for a PDF: Ken’s Rosetta Stone of Taxes
PDF Data Source
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Tags: Federal, Income taxes, Local, Rosetta Stone, State, Taxes
Posted in Government Angst, Taxes | Leave a Comment »
January 25, 2017
Rather, double the corporate tax deduction for workers’ wages earned the U.S. workers.
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Let’s start with an interesting analysis from Nate Silver’s 535.com titled Manufacturing Jobs Are Never Coming Back
“It’s understandable that voters were angry about trade. The U.S. has lost more than 4.5 million manufacturing jobs since NAFTA took effect in 1994. And, there’s mounting evidence that U.S. trade policy, particularly with China, has caused lasting harm to many American workers.”
“Manufacturing in particular embodies something that seems to be disappearing in today’s economy: jobs with decent pay and benefits available to workers without a college degree are vanishing. The average factory worker earns more than $25 an hour before overtime; the typical retail worker makes less than $18 an hour.”
“In 1994 there were 3.5 million more Americans working in manufacturing than in retail. Today, those numbers have almost exactly reversed, and the gap is widening. More than 80 percent of all private jobs are now in the service sector.”
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How can that be? Aren’t we hearing a lot about “re-shoring” and foreign capital investing in U.S. based manufacturing plants?
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Posted in Employment - Jobs, Manufacturing, Re-shoring, Tax reform, Taxes | 1 Comment »
January 24, 2017
Now that tax reform and spending “rationalization” are on the front-burner, I wonder why there has been nary a mention of old Simpson-Bowles Report.
You may remember that former President Obama commissioned Simpson, Bowles and a blue-ribbon committee to recommend ways to cut the deficit … and the skyrocketing national debt.
The report took shots at some sacred cows like capping home mortgage deductions and taxing employer-paid healthcare.
But, S-B had the gall to suggest pulling back some entitlements so Obama deep-sixed the report.
Maybe DJT should try to locate a copy.
Maybe it’s time to re-visit the Simpson-Bowles Report .
Here are some of the highlights …
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January 23, 2017
The answer is obvious, right?
They take up more seats, require more server time, and eat more food.
Why do I ask?
As the GOP moves to Repeal & Replace ObamaCare, a constant refrain is ‘everybody agrees that two popular parts of ObamaCare should be saved: insurability for pre-existing conditions and allowable coverage of ‘adult- children’ on their parents’ policies until they are 26”.
I agree that there needs to be a way to cover pre-existing conditions, but … except for special needs situations, I respectfully disagree re: adult-children.
First, the term “adult-children” gives me the creeps. But, that’s beside the point.
More on point, I don’t care if insurance companies have to carry 26 year olds on their parents’ policies, but I don’t understand why they should “fly free” and that you & I should have to pay for it … not the adult-children’s parents.
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Let me explain …
Now, practically all employer-sponsored health insurance plans charge premiums in tiers: employee only, employee plus spouse, employee plus children, and employee plus spouse and children. Note: it doesn’t matter if the employee has 1 child or a dozen children … same premium.
Say what?
For example, the United Healthcare plan through Georgetown — which is probably pretty typical — charges:
Let’s dive a little deeper into those numbers …
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Tags: adult-children, health insurance, kids go free
Posted in Health Care / Medical Insurance | Leave a Comment »
January 20, 2017
Comey probably did cost the Dems the White House …
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Here’s something for Dems to ponder on inauguration day.
My theory of the case from the get-go was that
(1) Hillary did break the law by grossly (and intentionally) mishandling classified information
(2) There was both harm & foul … i.e. foreign agents hacked the info.
(3) Comey brushed past the intent (which wasn’t really required for criminality) and the harm of the foul … because he didn’t want to go down in history as the brutish guy who stopped the first woman from being elected president.
Here’s the irony for the Dems ….
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary, Comey, James, Trump, Donald | Leave a Comment »
January 19, 2017
Team Clinton worshipped at the altar and got burned.
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Lots of post-election articles about how the Clinton campaign got fixated on their data-rich electorate models, using them to allocate ad dollars, deploy field workers and schedule “market visits” by Hillary and her surrogates.
What Team Clinton seemed to have forgotten is the old Reagan adage: trust but verify.
The data models – which worked near-flawlessly for Obama – took stage as “shiny objects” that led the Clinton campaign astray.
Politico reported a case study that illustrated the point …
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Posted in 2016 Campaign, Big data, Clinton, Hillary, Data analysis, Data analytics | Leave a Comment »
January 18, 2017
Her action might prompt re-opening of the Clinton server investigation.
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Departing AG Lynch lobbed a clock-winding-down grenade … unleashing the DOJ’s inspector general to review “broad allegations of misconduct involving FBI Director James B. Comey and how he handled the probe of Hillary Clinton’s email practices.”
Center stage are Comey’s July 5 non-sequiturial press conference (lots of evidence, but issue a stay-out-of-jail free card anyway), his re-opening of the case when classified emails were spotted on Anthony Weiner’s laptop and Comey’s last minute pronouncement for every to fuggitaboutit.
There are a couple of ways that Dem-loyal Lynch’s ploy might backfire.
First, beyond Comey, the IG said that he’ll be investigating “whether Peter Kadzik, the Justice Department’s assistant attorney general for legislative affairs, improperly disclosed non-public information to the Clinton campaign” and whether “FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe should have been recused from the case since his wife, Jill McCabe, ran for a Virginia Senate seat and took money from the political action committee of Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, a fierce Clinton ally.”
Said differently, the IG is likely to find more influence peddling and tampering from the Clinton side than from the Trump side.
Second, while Lynch has narrow-scoped the investigation to exclude her not-so-secret tarmac meeting with Bill Clinton, an in-coming AG might broaden the scope to dig into the “event” that forced Lynch to punt the ball to Comey … setting the stage for his press conference and letters.
Her improprieties certainly contributed to the mess.
Third, and most important, while the IG said that he’s not going to relitigate the findings in the Clinton case, the IG review is likely to rip off some scabs at the FBI and prompt a re-look at the case.
And, there are a couple of plausible motivators for re-opening Clinton’s file …
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Posted in Clinton, Hillary, Comey, James, DOJ - Dept of Justice, FBI, Hacking - Hackers | Leave a Comment »
January 17, 2017
Wonder if the guy watched the 2012 Presidential debates when Obama mocked Romney and declared the cold war to be over …
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On the Sunday talk shows, outgoing CIA Director John Brennan had some sharp criticism and warnings for President-elect Trump.
Brennan said that Trump is a bit naive and doesn’t have a “full understanding” of Russia’s power and the threat to the world posed by Russia’s aggressive actions.
Brennan failed to mention that — up to a couple of months ago — President Obama didn’t consider Russia to be much of a threat.
I wish the shows’ anchors had asked Brennan if he remembered the 2012 Presidential debates?
A key moment was when President Obama ridiculed Gov. Romney’s knowledge of foreign affairs.
The clip is a classic … try to stay calm when you.watch it
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Here’s more that’ll should make you scream …
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January 13, 2017
Yesterday, we reported that the U.S. is, on average, #40 in the world in mathematics.
Usual punditry is that schools are bad … blame it on the teachers.
But, I wondered: is it a bad production process (the schools) … or could it be the raw material going into the process (i.e. innate brain power).
So, the question of the day: how does the U.S. rank on IQ versus other countries?
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Posted in IQ - IQ Scores, Math & Quant Skills, STEM | Leave a Comment »
January 12, 2017
U.S. now trails 39 countries …
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The Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) recently released its 2015 survey results for math “literacy” … and, the results aren’t pretty.
The average for 15-year-old U.S. students slipped to 470 on the PISA scale … down about 3.5% from 2009 … ranking the U.S. #40 among developed nations (see list at end of this post) … 20 points lower than the average of the 35 OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries.
The scores differential versus the OECD countries is roughly equal for the average, 25th percentile and 90th percentile … refuting claims that “our” best are head-to-head competitive with the the rest of the world’s best.
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Digging a bit deeper into the numbers ….
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Posted in Education - Academics, IQ - IQ Scores, Math & Quant Skills | 1 Comment »
January 11, 2017
ObamaCare is front & center on the legislative agenda again, so …
Last week, we reported that — according to Gallup — ObamaCare is under water by 7 points (51% to 44%) … and that 29% think their families have been hurt by ObamaCare versus 18% who think that their families have been helped).
In other words, the disapproval is grounded in the program’s fundamentals.
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Cutting to the chase, an article in the WSJ quoted David Cutler, a Harvard health-care economist:
Obamacare may be “a story of three Americas.”
One group, the rich, can afford health care easily.
The poor can access public assistance.
But for lower middle- to middle-income Americans, “the income struggles and the health-care struggles together are a really potent issue.”
No kidding, Dr. Cutler …
HomaFiles was all over this one back in June:
Remember how healthcare costs were going to drop by $2,500 for every family?
We concluded that in 2016, employees will pay $11,000 out-of-pocket … up $2,500 since 2012.
“Employees” … you know the working class … the middle class.
Here’s the essence of our original post …. worth re-reading …. glad others are catching up to it.
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Milliman – a well-regarded actuarial consulting” firm – has published an annual recap of healthcare spending since 2001.
The Milliman Medical Index tracks the total costs of providing health care to an average family of four covered by an employer-sponsored “preferred provider plan” … that’s about 155 million employees and their dependents.
The total includes the health insurance premiums paid by both the employer and the employee, as well as the actual expenditures for health care paid by the insurance plan and out of pocket by the insured family.
The big news: In 2016, the average healthcare costs for a family of 4 surpassed $25,000 for the first time … the $25,826 is triple the cost to provide health care for the same family in 2001 … and up about $5,000 since 2012.
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The bad(est) news is the increased proportion of the healthcare costs being shouldered by individual employees …
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January 10, 2017
More precisely, I should have said “flashback” to 2008.
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Lots of attention on the alleged Russian hacking of the DNC and Clinton campaign.
Less attention on the Intelligence Community’s assessment that the RNC was hacked, too.
More surprising, there have been no references by Intelligence Agencies or the MSM to China’s hacking of the 2008 Presidential campaigns.
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So, let’s take a stroll down memory lane …
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Posted in Hacking - Hackers, McCain, John, Obama, presidential campaigns | 1 Comment »
January 9, 2017
Fortune cookie was the best part … and I’m hungry again.
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Over the weekend, we posted : Intel Report on Russian hacking … my take.
Now that the dust has settled, I’m getting that “where’s the beef feeling”?
Best I can do is:
Key points: Russians were more #NeverHillary than pro-Trump … no evidence that the election was impacted … none of the purloined emails were fakes or forgeries … Russians held back some of the juicier information-bombs to drop during Clinton’s expected presidency (and, they still have those morsels stockpiled).
click to view report
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My questions:
1) How were the sleuths able to able to find cyber-prints in this case but came up empty on the Clinton server (though the FBI reported that there was a high probability the enemy agents hacked that server, too)?
2) Wasn’t there any evidence of other foreign forces hacking into the same information bases, say the Chinese or North Koreans? Or, did our spies succumb to “fixation bias” (with a little “confirmation bias” thrown in) and only looked at a Russian connection? Maybe the problem is bigger and broader than reported.
By the way, what’s up with the Feds failing to haul in the suspect computers & servers and analyzing them for clues and evidence? Geez, on every episode of American Greed, the cops haul off the perp’s computer …
3) What info are the Russians holding in storage, waiting for an opportune time to cause some real havoc? Hmm. Maybe they have some of the classified material that was held safe (?) on Clinton’s and Weiner’s computers. Isn’t anybody worried about that?
Those are the questions that I’d like to see answered.
I’m not holding my breath …
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Though it was generally superficial and disappointing, I did ID one useful part of the report (seriously) …
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Posted in Confidence levels, Hacking - Hackers, Intelligence Agencies, Probability - certainty, Russians - Putin | Leave a Comment »
January 7, 2017
Some interesting assertions … that raise some interesting questions.
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Here’s my take:
First, the non-classified report isn’t very compelling.
For openers, the 25-page report isn’t really 25 pages of report … it has a 3-page summary of a 5-page report … with 17 pages of filler on the front and back (the media “annex”).
Hope my students don’t get a whiff of that report-writing strategy.
And, the report contains mostly top-line assertions with virtually no new news or supporting data.
That’s understandable since the evidence is classified and can’t be revealed to us minions.
click to view report
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Despite the above, I stipulate that the Russians hacked the DNC and John Podesta’s emails … and fed the info to WikiLeaks and RT media.
Here’s my take on the key points (and the questions that the report leaves unanswered):
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January 6, 2017
Am I the only one wondering why there are 17 spy agencies?
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I’ve been amused at the way the phrase slides off the tongues of the news readers: “All 17 intelligence agencies…”
Certainly aroused my curiosity.
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Sure enough, the U.S. intelligence “community” is officially the composite of 17 overt organizations (more on them later) … but, according to a Washington Post investigation, they’re just the tip of the iceberg.
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Among WaPo’s findings:
- Some 1,271 government organizations and 1,931 private companies work on programs related to counterterrorism, homeland security and intelligence in about 10,000 locations across the United States.
- An estimated 854,000 people, nearly 1.5 times as many people as live in Washington, D.C., hold top-secret security clearances.
- In Washington and the surrounding area, 33 building complexes for top-secret intelligence work are under construction or have been built since September 2001. Together they occupy the equivalent of almost three Pentagons or 22 U.S. Capitol buildings – about 17 million square feet of space.
- Many security and intelligence agencies do the same work, creating redundancy and waste. For example, 51 federal organizations and military commands, operating in 15 U.S. cities, track the flow of money to and from terrorist networks.
- Analysts who make sense of documents and conversations obtained by foreign and domestic spying share their judgment by publishing 50,000 intelligence reports each year – a volume so large that many are routinely ignored.
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Back on point, here’s a list of the 17 agencies that make up the U.S. spy network …
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January 5, 2017
18% say the law has helped their families; 29% say it has hurt them
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ObamaCare is front-and-center again as the GOP controlled Congress starts the process of repealing and replacing.
A repeated Dem talking point yesterday was how the majority of Americans support ObamaCare.
Sorry, Charlie, but the data doesn’t seem to support the claim.
Gallup has been tracking public sentiment towards ObamaCare for the past couple of years.
Bottom line:
More people have disapproved of ObamaCare since its inception … for most of the past 4 years, a majority has disapproved … most recently, the there has been a 7 point gap – 51% disapproving to 44% approving.
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Why the majority disapproval ?
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Posted in ObamaCare, Polls & Surveys | 1 Comment »
January 4, 2017
President Obama seems determined to leave office ungracefully … spending his lame duck time igniting a steam of transitional stink bombs to welcome the President-elect.
Or, as pundits like to say (when somebody other than Obama is doing it): “taking unprecedented unilateral action”.
Those who are gleefully cheering him on, should keep in mind that what goes around, comes around.
Some day, Trump may be in a lame duck period with a Dem president-elect ready to launch.
When he starts complicating life for the president-to-come, today’s cheer squad will have no legitimacy to whine.
Obama’s recent power plays reminded me of a “must read” opinion piece in the Washington Post archives.
The article was penned by left-leaning GWU law professor Jonathan Turley
Turley has long been warning that Dems may think it is clever and appropriate when Obama circumvents the Congress and courts to implement his partisan policies, but that they should be forewarned that what goes around, come around.
Specifically, he says:
Democrats have supported President Obama’s claims of unchecked authority in a variety of areas.
Obama has been particularly aggressive in his unilateral actions.
From health care to immigration to the environment, he has set out to order changes long refused by Congress.
Thrilled by those changes, supporters have ignored the obvious danger that they could be planting a deeply unfortunate precedent if the next president proves to be a Cruz or Trump rather than a Clinton.
While the policies may not carry over to the next president, the powers will.
The Obama model will be attractive to successors who, although they may have a different agenda, have the same appetite for unilateral decisions.
Here are some specifics that he cites:
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January 3, 2017
Majority of Americans expect 2017 to be better than 2016.
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FLOTUS Michelle Obama chatted with slimmed-down Oprah recently, lauding her hubbies accomplishments (and fretting that the era of hope & change is ending, replaced by pervasive (and justified) melancholy.
She asserted that her husband had succeeded in keeping his campaign promise of fostering hope.
And, she opined: “The U.S. is entering a time of hopelessness We are feeling what not having hope feels like. We can feel the difference now.”
Worry not, Michelle.
Polling firm GFK conducted a survey for the AP that asked people how 2016 was for them personally and what their expectations are for 2017.
Here’s what they found …
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Posted in Consumer psychology, Obama, Michelle, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »
December 24, 2016
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and HAPPY NEW YEAR to all !
This short video was sent to me by a friend a couple of years ago
It really resonated with me, so I like to share it at Christmas time.
… back with you after the New Year
* * * * *
click picture to launch ( best with audio on)
#HomaFiles
Follow on Twitter @KenHoma >> Latest Posts
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Tags: Merry Christmas
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December 23, 2016
Some pillars of management theory are weakening.
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Interesting article in The Economist asserts that “business gurus have lost touch with the world they seek to rule” and that “management theory is ripe for a reformation, especially at Business schools — the cathedrals of capitalism.”
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More specifically, the author argues that: “Management theories are organized around four basic ideas, repeated ad nauseam in every business book you read or business conference you attend, that bear almost no relation to reality.”
Here are some snippets on those four disputable basic ideas …
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December 22, 2016
Maybe folks should consider the source.
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Big frenzy these days about fake news.
Though Facebook CEO Zuckerberg says that less than 1% of news postings are fake, the company is setting up a special truth-checking squad.
I find that interesting in a couple of respects.
First, getting one’s news via Facebook.
Really?
I find that scary.
But, not surprising since The WaPo reports a recent poll that “more than one in 10 young adults (ages 18-29) say they rely on “The Daily Show” or its now-departed spinoff, “The Colbert Report” for news about what’s going on in the world.”
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Pew Research reports similar findings … right around 10%.
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This raises as obvious questions …
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Posted in Comedy - Jokes, Media - Ratings, Media Bias, Media Demongraphis, News sources | Leave a Comment »
December 21, 2016
Your answer says a lot about you.
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Before you look at the chart below, jot down the 3 or 4 web pages or channels/shows that you trust as your primary sources for news.
No cheating.
Done?
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OK, now check where your news sources fall along this ideological continuum crafted by Pew Research.
Your news sources align with your political ideology, right?
It’s a psychological dynamic called “confirmation bias” … soliciting and internalizing information that is consistent with one’s current beliefs.
Said differently, confirmation bias is a natural stress-reduction tendency to avoid or resist any information that is contrary to or inconsistent with one’s current thinking.
One of the major solidifiers of our current political polarization is the “echo chamber effect” … we all tend to consult sources and hang with people who share, reinforce and exaggerate our ideological leanings.
So what to do?
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Posted in Cognitive biases, Confirmation bias, Media Bias, News sources | Leave a Comment »
December 20, 2016
According to his economists, the trillion dollar stimulus program was a bust!
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Lots of MSM headlines these days about the strong economy that Obama is handing Trump … with a strong suggestion that Trump will have a hard time matching Obama’s stellar performance as a job creator.
Really?
On the plus side, the reported unemployment rate has dropped from the financial crisis highs.
For today, we’ll push aside the facts that (a) American’s who have been economically crushed largely voted the Dems out of office; and (2) the labor force participation rate has dropped precipitously – giving the unemployment rate a faux boost.
But, let’s dig a little deeper into the numbers … using the Administration’s own analyses.
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Posted in Jobs - Unemployment, Obama, Stimulus Bill, Stimulus Plan | Leave a Comment »
December 19, 2016
Some key points are being overlooked.
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Fueled by a “secret CIA assessment”, election-deniers are having a field day blaming Queen Hillary’s loss on the Russians.
Beyond the hypocrisy of their post-debate-3 hyperventilation over Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting the election results if they seemed tainted, the deniers seem to be overlooking a couple of key points.
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary, Cybersecurity - cybercrime, Hacking - Hackers, Trump, Donald | Leave a Comment »
December 16, 2016
She landslided California, but lost the combined popular vote in the other 49 states (& DC).
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Dems are still carping that Trump’s ascendency is illegitimate since Hillary won the popular vote.
And, everybody knows that Hillary won big in California.
But, I was a bit surprised by how big her California win was … and its implications.
Bottom line: Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.8 million votes … buoyed by a 4.3 million edge in California.
Think about that for a second.
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Yes, Clinton won California big time … but, Trump won the combined popular vote of the other 49 states (& DC)
The MSM repeatedly observes that Trump followers drag their knuckles … and that Hillary dominated among the intelligensia.
So was Clinton’s success in California simply explained by Californians being smarter than the rest of the country?
Quick quiz: how does the average Californian’s IQ rack up against residents of other states?
The answer may surprise you ….
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary, IQ - IQ Scores | 2 Comments »
December 15, 2016
Lessons in diplomacy …
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Of course, the current Russia hysteria has prompted flashbacks of the infamous Russian Reset …
Back in March 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton presented Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov with a small green box with a ribbon.
Inside was a red button with the Russian word “peregruzka” printed on it.
Clinton offered that pushing it would “reset our relationship” … ostensibly, for the better.
So, how did that all work out?
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December 14, 2016
Remember the 2012 Presidential debates?
A key moment was when President Obama ridiculed Gov. Romney’s knowledge of foreign affairs.
Given the current hysteria over Russia, the clip is a classic … try to stay calm when you.watch it
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Here’s more that’ll should make you scream …
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December 13, 2016
I’ve got an alternative scenario for you.
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Last week, focus shifted from fake news to Russian hacking intended to help Trump get elected.
There’s hand-wringing and outrage that the Russians might have tried to impact a U.S. election by revealing Hillary’s emails..
President Obama has ordered that an investigation be done and a report on his desk by the time he leaves office (i.e. right before President-elect Trump gets sworn in).
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Most recently, U.S. intelligence officials fingered the Russians but have conceded that (1) they are basing their views on deductive circumstantial reasoning and not conclusive evidence and (2) they are uncertain as to motive. Source
I’ve got an alternative deduced scenario for you. Let’s connect some dots on this one …
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, DNC, Hacking - Hackers | 2 Comments »
December 12, 2016
Flashback: Current POTUS skips more than half of his (while President).
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The MSM is blasting President-elect Trump for not having security briefings every day.
Keep in mind that Trump is President-elect, not President.
So, the briefings can be a learning experience, but there’s nothing actionable that he can do until January 20.
Putting that fact aside …
Flashback to a study done by Government Accountability Institute re: Obama’s briefing practices.
At the time, security folks were concerned that Obama was frequently skipping his Presidential Daily Briefings (PDBs).
Here’s what the GAI found …
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December 9, 2016
Adding visuals to menus (and reports) creates interest and boosts credibility.
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Studies have shown that adding icons and photos to restaurant menus increase sales up to 30% for the featured items.
The visuals draw attention to the items … if done well, they stimulate diners’ senses.
OK, we’ve all be menu-enticed … that’s not news.
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But, did you know that simply adding a visual – a graph or chart or formula — to a report can boost the credibility of a conclusion by 50% or more?
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December 8, 2016
“A permanent job with good benefits is (now) beyond reach for most American workers … only federal judges and tenured professors are insulated from the forces of workforce transformation”
That’s according to the authors of the book Working Scared (Or Not at All): The Lost Decade, Great Recession, and Restoring the Shattered American Dream
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The book Working Scared is focused on the ways that the American workplace has changed in the past 50 or so years … and the implications on American workers (and non-workers).
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The central premise of the book is that globalization (out-sourcing & off-shoring); de-industrialization (towards more services and knowledge-based); technology-intensity (computers, internet, robots); and de-unionization have shattered the American Dream for tens of millions of working adults who are struggling or poor … “despite working hard and playing by the rules.”
More specifically …
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Posted in Economy, Employee engagement, Jobs - Unemployment, Working Scared | 1 Comment »
December 7, 2016
After last week’s employment numbers, Administration reps emphasized that over 12 million jobs have been added … recovering the number of jobs lost, plus a few to spare.
Predictably, conservative pundits countered that that the “mix” of jobs has deteriorated … well-paying full-time jobs have been replaced with lower paying full-time jobs and involuntary part-time jobs … with many of the added jobs going to immigrants – some legal, some not.
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Coincidentally, I started reading a book titled Working Scared (Or Not at All) … about the plight of the American worker … both old-timers who worked hard and played by the rules and newbies who are graduating with high college debt and disappointing career prospects.
The authors cut to the chase by researching the core issue: have the workers who lost their jobs bounced back?
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December 6, 2016
Yesterday, we looked at the falling labor force participation rate (LFPR) among so-called prime age males … aged 24 to 54 … a range that outboards most students and retirees.
About 10 million men fall into that category – unemployed but not looking for work.
One hypothesis is that the LFPR among prime age males has dropped because – as women have entered the workforce – the men have stayed home to care for family members and do household chores.
According to the Fed’s latest American Time Use Survey, there’s some evidence to support that hypothesis.
In fact, “non-participating prime-age men” spend about 1/2 hour per day more on “household activities & services” than do prime age males who are in the labor force.
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But, that’s only a small part of the story ….
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December 5, 2016
More able-bodied men are sitting on their duffs …
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The November jobs report in a nutshell: 160k jobs added, but … the adult population increased by 219k and the civilian labor force contracted by 226k … so, the labor force participation rate dropped again.
It’s no secret that the Labor Force Participation — the % of able bodied adults who are employed or looking for work — has dropped about 4-1/2 percentage points from pre-financial crisis levels … and continues to fall.
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The economy-is-doing-just-fine crowd chalks the declining rate to demographics – old-timers retiring.
In prior posts I’ve attributed about 1/3 to retirees … the rest to slackers.
To that point, let’s cut the data a different way …
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Posted in Economy, Employment - Jobs | 3 Comments »
December 2, 2016
Since the election is over, the T-Day conversation at our house shifted to “cow tipping”.
So, let’s dip into the HomaFiles archive for the definitive explanation … with a twist.
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A news story caught my eye yesterday.
But, first some context …
Have you ever heard of “cow tipping?
It’s a ritual where drunk farm boys sneak up on cows and tip them over.
Technical note: I have no idea why they have to be drunk, but it’s always stated that way.
Last year , Modern Farmer magazine published a scientific study on cow tipping.
Basically, Modern Farmer debunked the rural legend:
Cow tipping, at least as popularly imagined, does not exist.
Drunk young men do not, on any regular basis, sneak into cow pastures and put a hard shoulder into a cow taking a standing snooze, thus tipping the poor animal over.
While in the history of the world there have surely been a few unlucky cows shoved to their side by gang of boozed-up morons, we feel confident in saying this happens at a rate roughly equivalent to the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series.
The evidence against cow tipping is immense, and backed up by both farmers and the laws of physics
Ignore the cheap shot at my favorite Cubbies … focus on the “boozed up morons” and the “laws of physics”.
The Modern Farmer study was provocative enough that it was picked up by Slate.com with the following headline:
Uh-oh, this is where things get really interesting …
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Posted in Autos - Travel, Lau, Laughs, Ryral legends, Urban legends | 1 Comment »
December 1, 2016
They are the building blocks of reasoning, problem-solving and critical thinking.
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The courses that I teach contain a heavy dose of problem-solving skills.
Early on, I assert my belief that that problem-solving skills can be taught – and, more importantly, learned – and set about to prove the point.
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I’ve been doing some summer reading on the topic of reasoning & problem-solving and learned:
“For twenty-six hundred years many philosophers and educators have been confident that reasoning could be taught.”
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