First, the disclaimer: I’m not a doctor, I don’t play one on TV, and I don’t dispense medical advice … I just report things that I think might be of interest.
This one has two tracks: urgent care clinics and antibiotics.
Loyal readers know that I’m a proponent of Nurse Practitioners, Physician Assistants and Urgent Care Clinics.
Here’s the story …
Let’s put a couple of pieces together.
On 60 minutes, the President blamed the Intelligence Agencies – specifically, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper — for failing to detect the rise of ISIS (or, ISIL, if you prefer).
Squealing sources in the intelligence agencies have leaked that the President’s Daily (Security) Briefs PDBs have contained detailed threat warnings about the Islamic State dating back to before the 2012 presidential election.
=====
So, what’s going on?
From the “had to see this one coming department” …
In the old days, folks who who banged computer keyboards day in and day out suffered nerve damage in their hands & wrists called carpal tunnel syndrome.
More time on tablets and phones may have abated that problem a bit … but, of course, new problems have cropped up.
Here are the son and daughter of carpal tunnel …
Since Congress is gridlocked … and, since the President is end-running Congress on most matters … th fulfillment can’t be “having an impact”.
So, it must be something else.
Money, maybe?
Raises the question: how much dough gets thrown into the pot?
Here’s the scoop…
McKinsey recently published a report “Big Data – The Next Frontier” that concludes:
The United States faces a shortage of 140,000 to 190,000 people with deep analytical skills as well as 1.5 million managers and analysts to make decisions based on their findings.
Crunch those nums …
Even before Burger King splashed its inversion scheme, its CEO, Daniel Schwartz, created quite the buzz in his first year.
Thanks to a successful restructuring of the company, BK has nearly doubled its net income and increased same store sales by 2%.
While the company’s performance warrants the positive PR, the majority of articles focus on a non-financial number …
This one is from the “great moments in law enforcement” file …
According to the Orlando Sentinel, Orange County police have been cracking down on major crime.
SWAT teams – in full riot gear – have been raiding local barbershops.
====
What’s the criminal activity that the police are trying to tamp down?
NPR says …
“Getting the results of a genetic test can be a bit like opening Pandora’s box … you might learn that you’re likely to develop an incurable disease later on in life.”
There’s a federal law that’s supposed to protect people from having their own genes used against them, the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act, or GINA.
Under GINA, it’s illegal for health insurers to raise rates or to deny coverage because of someone’s genetic code.
But the law has a loophole: It only applies to health insurance.
Some insurance can be denied or priced high because of a person’s DNA.
Here’s an example … and a prediction.
You bet they do …
======
Prof Robert Kaplan of San Diego State University conducted an experiment:
Faculty subjects were asked to grade an essay written by a student.
A photograph of the student was attached to the essay.
The grade given for the essay correlated strongly with a subjective attractiveness scale evaluated by other judges.
What is interesting is that all the subjects received the exact same essay, and the photograph attached to it was randomly assigned.
Bottom line: physical attractiveness causes graders to give essay writers better scores on their essays.
Here’s what’s going on …
According to Variety – the entertainment industry paper of record …
The National Labor Relations Board has ordered CNN to rehire 100 workers as part of a labor dispute that originated in 2003.
=====
This initially caught my eye because of the defendant … CNN.
Demonstrating non-partisanship, the NLRB isn’t targeting Fox … it’s going after administration-friendly CNN.
And, the story gets better …
A few years ago, the FTC was hassling Sirius and XM Satellite Radio when they wanted to merge…. they fretted that a Sirius and XM would jack up subscription rates.
Apparently the FTC hadn’t heard of satellite radio’s main competitor – free, over-the-air broadcast radio,
The FTC pondered the case for so long, that the companies lost millions of dollars The companies finally merged, just in time to get one-upped by other media.
Now the FTC is turning its watchful eyes on the dollar stores.
Here’s the story …
Flashback: Remember when the Administration declared war on the Little Sisters of the Poor?
Not ISIS (or ISIL or whatever), the Little Sisters.
You see, the nuns weren’t interested in ObamaCare’s contraception provisions … they were already controlling births very well, by abstaining from you-know-what … and the nuns didn’t want to provide birth control for their lay employees since it violated their fundamental religious beliefs.
So, the DOJ filed a lawsuit to force the nuns off their right-to-life platform and compel them to provide birth control in their insurance packages.
· See Let’s have a little fun with the nuns … for details
= = = = =
While the story has gotten buried in the news, things have gotten very interesting …
Fast food workers around the country have been protesting for a $15 minimum wage.
A couple of days ago we warned about the possibility of McDonald’s replacing $1 menu with a buck-and –a-half menu … ouch!. The core story line: economists modeled the impact of raising the minimum wage for fast food workers to $15 and concluded that, all else equal, fast food prices would have to go up by about 40% to cover the increased labor costs.
Ooch. Continues a historic trend … As time rolls on, a buck buys you less and less at Mickey D’s
Since that post, a couple things happened.
First, McDonalds reported a 3.7% decline in global same-store sales.
That ranks as the company’s worst global same-store sales results in more than a decade.
Profit margins are shrinking and the company is trying to upmix customers to higher margin menu items.
Not exactly the time to be asking for a 66% raise, right?
=====
Adding to the discourse, a couple of loyal readers fed me some red meat: the realistic possibility that, very soon, low skilled burger flippers will be eased out by burger-making robots.
Here’s the scoop …
In this and a couple of preceding and subsequent posts, i’ll be excerpting the 13 reasons from:
Why We Make Mistakes, Joseph T. Hallinanm, Broadway Books
Today, we add reason #10 to the list. we all think we’re above average
In his speech this week, President Obama said:
Last month, I ordered our military to take targeted action against ISIL to stop its advances. Since then, we have conducted more than 150 successful airstrikes in Iraq.
He made it sound like a big deal … and built on the point, saying that the air strikes would continue across a wider target area. Possibly extending into Syria.
Picture from NATO web site
Of course, the comment got me thinking … are 150 airstrikes a lot or a little?
Works out to about 5 missions per day … which doesn’t strike me as up there with shock & awe.
But, I wanted to put 5-a-day in context and got some counsel from a friend…
A couple of day-after–the-speech thoughts…
First, some props for the President.
On the style front, I’ was glad that he was eyes forward last night. As loyal readers know, for prior talks to we0the-people, I asked Why didn’t he look us in the eyes? Apparently he reads HomaFiles and changed course.
But, the speech left me scratching my head ….
In this and a couple of preceding and subsequent posts, i’ll be excerpting the 13 reasons from:
Why We Make Mistakes, Joseph T. Hallinanm, Broadway Books
Today, we finish the list … ending with an old standby: The Grass Looks Greener …
Relax, we’re just speculating … it’ll only happen if the fast-food workers get the $15 per hour that they were clamoring for last week
Economists at the Heritage Foundation have observed that fast-food joints operate on very slim profit margins (about 3% on average) so they’d have no choice but to bump up prices. to stay even.
The Heritage economists estimate that a $15 minimum wage for hamburger flippers would force restaurants to raise average menu prices about 40% in order to hold the current level of profitability.
Here’s the essence of their analysis …
In this and a couple of preceding and subsequent posts, i’ll be excerpting the 13 reasons from:
Why We Make Mistakes, Joseph T. Hallinanm, Broadway Books
Today, we add reason #9 to the list. Men shoot first, then …
In this and a couple of preceding and subsequent posts, I’m excerpting the 13 reasons from:
Why We Make Mistakes, Joseph T. Hallinanm, Broadway Books
Today, we add reasons 6, 7 and 8 to the list.
In this and a couple of preceding and subsequent posts, I’m excerpting the 13 reasons from:
Why We Make Mistakes, Joseph T. Hallinanm, Broadway Books
Today, we add reason #5 to the list: the myth of multi-tasking…
In this and a couple of subsequent posts, i’ll be excerpting the 13 reasons from a summer read:
Why We Make Mistakes, Joseph T. Hallinanm, Broadway Books
Today, the first 4 reasons on the list …
According to George Parker of AdScam ….
At a conference a couple of years ago. GE and their agency, BBDO, made a presentation of their new “Imagination” campaign.
After showing some nice TV spots and explaining that they’d spent $300 million on media over the last year, they proudly declared that brand awareness had increased substantially.
This generated polite applause.
Next up was the Marketing Director of blender manufacturer Blendtec who proceeded to blend:
He then put up a single slide showing that every time they posted a self-produced, ten dollar video on YouTube in their long-running “Will It Blend” campaign (which to-date has had more than 220 million views,) sales went up by an accurately measurable percentage.
Understandably, the crowd went nuts.
The point of the story …
Of course not … that’s silly.
OK let’s try a variant of the question: Does education make you smarter?
=====
I bet a lot of you would bet the over on that one.
Here’s what the researchers say …
OK, he really didn’t say the last part., I made that up.
Since Buffett shed his hypocritical “please tax us more” sham and hopped on the BK inversion deal, I thought it was fair to flashback to some of Buffett’s pro-tax rants and our proposed “Buffett Rule”
=====
According to CNBC, Warren Buffett is one of several dozen wealthy people who have signed a statement calling for a “strong tax on large estates.”
Buffett & friends say:
OK, so what constitutes a sizable estate and how much of it should the government take?
This one is too good to be true.
Burger King is planning to buy Tim Hortons – a Canadian coffee-and-doughnut chain.
Forget for a second that this is 2014 and doughnuts are, shall we say, a bit out of fashion,
Conventional wisdom is that BK isn’t strategically driving thru the doughnut hole left by Krispy Kreme’s woes.
=====
Though the company denies it, BK seems aimed at turning things upside down tax=wise.
You know, “invert” itself into a Canadian company so that it doesn’t have to pay U.S. taxes on money it earns outside the boundaries of the U.S.
Here’s where things start to get interesting ….
From the HBR blog site: “The Myth of E-Commerce Domination” …
Forrester’s data on the top 30 product categories (which account for 97% of total e-commerce sales) indicates that e-commerce growth is clearly slowing overall:
If historical trends continue, e-commerce’s share of retail will rise from 11% today to about 18% in 2030, way below projections from a few years ago.
Of course, 18% isn’t shabby, but it’s not exactly world domination.
What’s going on?
Since Obama is still blaming Bush for everything, it’s good to see the tide turning and see him get tagged for some losses.
Here’s the scoop according to several sources:
The Cubs were leading the SF Giants 2-0 last week when the game had to stopped due to heavy rain.
The ground crew struggled to get the tarp across the field.
=====
After a 4-hour rain delay, the field was declared unplayable.
Since the teams had played more than 5 complete innings, the Cubs were declared the winners.
Here’s where things get interesting.
US News & World Report says to keep these 10 catch phrases off your cover letter:
1. “I meet the requirements for the position.”Explain why you’re an excellent candidate, not just an adequate one.
2. “I’m hard-working and a great communicator.” These are cliches that cause hiring managers’ eyes to glaze over …and don’t convey anything of substance.
3. “I’m a visionary leader.” Proclaiming this about yourself comes across as, well, weird. Show accomplishments.
4. “You won’t find a candidate better qualified than me.” This comes off as needlessly cocky hyperbole — and it’s generally inaccurate..
5. “Dear sir or madam.” In most industries, this will come across as an antiquated, stuffy salutation. If you know the hiring manager’s name, use it … if not, simply writing “dear hiring manager” is fine.
I’ve been reading a book called How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg
The author recounts a classic stock advisor scam that goes like this …
======
One day, you receive an unsolicited newsletter from an investment advisor, containing a tip that a certain stock is due for a big rise.
A week passes, and just as the Investment advisor predicted, the stock goes up.
The next week, you get a new edition of the newsletter, and this time, the tip is about a stock whose price the adviser thinks is going to fall.
And indeed, the stock craters.
That’s good, but it gets even better …
We’ve been spending a lot of time at Georgetown Hospital recently.
In the process, we’ve developed a deep respect for some of the key cogs in the system: nurses, nurse practitioners and doctor-residents.
In casual conversation, our surgeon mentioned how she had managed to “survive her surgical residency”.
That got me wondering, about the life of a resident.
=====
Here’s what I found …
Warning: Adult Content.
The Economist – a reputable publication — recently reported the results of a groundbreaking economic analysis.
Specifically, staffers “analysed 190,000 profiles of sex workers on an international review site … with data going back to 1999 … with prices corrected for inflation.”
What did they find?
“The most striking trend our analysis reveals is a drop in the average hourly rate of a prostitute in recent years”
=====
What explains the 30% drop in prices?
Well, pardon the pun, it’s pure economics …
Been The First Mile Mile by Scott Anthony … a practical book re: how to ID practical innovations and launch them.
Anthony characterizes an innovation as having a combination of a deep customer need, a compelling solution, and a powerful economic model.
He argues that the first 2 items – a deep need and a compelling solution – are often overstated … and that the 3rd – the economic model – is often completely ignored.
So, as everybody know, most innovations fail in the marketplace.
To increase the odds of a innovation’s success (think new product or start-up company) he proposes a a process that borrows from the classical scientific method, discovery driven planning and the trendy “lean start-ups”.
Anthony acronyms his process DEFT: document, evaluate, focus, (test & adjust)
The first step in the DEFT process is to document the essence of an initiative … not voluminously, but insightfully … with an eye to separating facts from assumptions … and then concentrating on the assumptions that are least certain and most impactful.
Specifically, Anthony offers up 27 specific questions to answer when documenting an innovation …
Dan Lovallo, a professor and decision-making researcher says, “Confirmation bias is probably the single biggest problem in business, because even the most sophisticated people get it wrong. People go out and they’re collecting the data, and they don’t realize they’re cooking the books.”
What’s this “confirmation bias” that Lovello is talking about?
No surprise, people tend to seek out information that supports their existing beliefs.
You know, liberals watch MSNBC, read the NY Times listen to BBC podcasts; conservatives watch FOX, read the WSJ and listen to Rush.
Behavioral psychologists call the he dynamic “confirmation bias”.
=====
In socio-politics, the confirmation bias tends to harden polarized positions. People just gather debate fodder rather than probing both sides of issues.
In the realm of decision making, confirmation bias has a dysfunctional effect: it leads to bad decisions.
Awhile ago,, I was invited to do a radio interview on NPR.
When I told my daughter-in-law, she suggested that I request sparkling water and green M&Ms.
====
I thought that was pretty funny, but didn’t know the story behind it Read the rest of this entry »
Chris Rock is a very funny guy.
His routine on the many uses of Robitussin (‘tussin, for short) is a comedy classic.
The ‘tussin skit sets the context for the rest of this post.
If you haven’t seen it – or want a refresher — click to view it now.
I always assumed that Rock was a naturally funny guy who just stoked up and unleashed a stream of top-of-mind consciousness on stage.
I was surprised to learn that Rock takes his craft very seriously and toils long and hard to test and fine-tune his material.
Here’s a glimpse at his recipe for success …
Too bad it was written after-the-fact. After the rejections.
The WSJ published an op-ed by a HS senior: To (All) the Colleges That Rejected Me
It’s worth reading … says the things that most of us are probably thinking.
Here are some highlights:
This may seem petty, but it has been gnawing at me …
Last Thursday, President Obama announced to the nation that he had authorized airstrikes in Iraq.
His rationale: act against an act of genocide and protect Americans stationed in Iraq.
I’m ok with the reasons and the actions.
This isn’t a political observation.
Here’s what’s been bothering me ….
I know that Andy Grove of Intel says “only the paranoid survive”.
But, work relationships are sometimes corrupted by negative assumptions that take on a life all their own.
A jabrone speaks out against your idea in a meeting, and you naturally assume that he’s trying to sabotage your or embarrass you in front of the boss.
If this situation happens a couple of times, you might declare war and go on the offensive to neutralize or defeat him.
To interrupt this cycle, some organizational leaders urge their employees to “assume positive intent,”
Here’s an interesting study excepted from Kahneman’s Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow…
Let’s start with some background … straight from Wiki:
The “seven-year itch” is a psychological term that suggests that happiness in a relationship declines after around year seven of a marriage.
The phrase was first used to describe an inclination to become unfaithful after seven years of marriage in the play The Seven Year Itch by George Axelrod, and gained popularity following the 1955 film adaptation starring Marilyn Monroe and Tom Ewell.
The phrase has since expanded to indicate cycles of dissatisfaction not only in interpersonal relationships but in any situation such as working a full-time job or buying a house, where a decrease in happiness and satisfaction is often seen over long periods of time.
* * * * *
OK, so is the 7-year itch just folklore for real?
According to an Urban Institute study, more than 35 percent of Americans have debts and unpaid bills that have been handed over to collection agencies.
The unpaid bills include credit cards, hospital bills, mortgages, auto loans, student loans, gym membership fees or cellphone contracts.
Here are some interesting factoids …
We’ve all been there …
We’re in meetings pitching an idea when some jabrone pipes in:
“Let me play the role of devil’s advocate …”
He then blasts your idea with half-baked criticisms.
As you aggressively defend your cherished idea, he backs off:
“Hey man, I’m just playing devil’s advocate”.
“Say, what? You mean your just made up those cheap shots?”
I’ve been reading books on decision making this summer.
A couple have praised the use of so-called devil’s advocates to validate ideas and arguments.
Here’s what they’re talking about …
Summertime means America’s Got Talent.
Every year I swear off the show, when my favorites get sent pack.
Heartbreak came early this season when my early fav act got eliminated by the judges.
The act is called Flight Crew Jump Rope.
Click below for 2 minutes of pure fun and “wow”.
=====
Here’s what happened …
In Decisive, the authors (Heath Brothers) observe that people often approach problems from two radically different mindsets: “promotion” and “prevention”.
The mindset one adopts can bias the way solutions are considered and selected.
A classic “framing” question from Kahneman’s Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow …
Here’s the situation:
A woman has bought two $80 tickets to the theater.
When she arrives at the theater, she opens her wallet and discovers that the tickets are missing.
$80 tickets are still available at the box office.
Will she buy two more tickets to see the play?
Most (but, not all) survey respondents answer that the woman will go home without seeing the show.
Let’s try another situation …
We’re talking Sandra Fluke today.
You know, the Georgetown law student who couldn’t afford $3,000 for birth control pills while going to law school.
Not to worry, we’re not taking sides on the ObamaCare contraceptives issue … this is all about money — freakonomics.
Still, since it’s critical background, here’s an excerpt of her infamous Congressional testimony:
My name is Sandra Fluke, and I’m a third-year student at Georgetown Law School.
I attend a Jesuit law school that does not provide contraceptive coverage in its student health plan.
We students have faced financial, emotional and medical burdens as a result.
When I look around my campus, I see the faces of the women affected by this lack of contraceptive coverage …
On a daily basis, I hear from yet another woman from Georgetown or from another school … and they tell me that they have suffered financially, emotionally and medically, because of this lack of coverage.
Without insurance coverage, contraception, as you know, can cost a woman over $3,000 during law school.
For a lot of students who, like me, are on public interest scholarships, that’s practically an entire summer’s salary.
Forty percent of the female students at Georgetown Law reported to us that they’ve struggled financially as a result of this policy.
OK, I understand.
Sandra is cash-strapped because of the high cost of attending Georgetown and she wants other folks to pay for her contraceptives.
But now, there’s a strange twist to her “poor me” story.
Behavioral theorists have long observed that most people are risk adverse and, due in part to an “endowment effect”, they “value” losses greater than gains.
Endowment Effect: People tend to ascribe a higher value to things that they already own than to comparable things that they don’t own. For example, a car-seller might think his sleek machine is “worth” $10,000 even though credible appraisers say it’s worth $7,500. Sometimes the difference is due to information asymmetry (e.g. the owner knows more about the car’s fine points), but usually it’s just a cognitive bias – the Endowment Effect.
The chart below illustrates the gains & losses concept.
=====
For example, would you take any of these coin flip gambles?
Most people pass on #1 and #2, but would hop on #3 and #4.
OK, now let’s show how all of this relates to ObamaCare.
First, a definition lifted from Wiki:
Buyer’s remorse is the sense of regret after having made a purchase. It is frequently associated with the purchase of a big ticket item such as a car or house.
It may stem from fear of making the wrong choice, guilt over extravagance, or a suspicion of having been overly influenced by the seller.
Buyer’s remorse is thought to stem from the post-decision cognitive dissonance that arises when a person makes a difficult decision.
Factors that affect buyer’s remorse include resources invested, the involvement of the purchaser, whether the purchase is compatible with the purchaser’s goals, and what positive or negative evidence the purchaser encounters post-purchase that confirms or denies the purchase as a good idea.
= = = = =
Bet you can guess where this one is going.
Remember the 2012 election when Obama squared off against Romney?
Obama won the election with 51% of the popular vote.
My, how things have changed.
The WH-OMB estimates that, in FY 2014, the federal government will collect a record amount in inflation-adjusted tax revenues (i.e. taxes) while still running a deficit,
Source: CNS; See the Monthly Treasury Statement. for details
More specifically …
interesting factoid from Quartz.com “ What universities have in common with record labels” …
Used to be that the majority of college faculty were on the tenure track … with less than 1 in 3 being non-tenure track “part-timers”.
Source: Quartz.com
With the cost pressures that universities face these days, those numbers have completely reversed.
Now, the majority of university faculty s part-timers … and about 1 in 3 are on the tenure track.
And, Quartz points out that there’s increasing separation between content producing “marquee” profs and “average” profs.
“The ranks of professors will quickly diverge into the 1% and everyone else.”
As the original Grandma Homa used to say; “It’s easy to be good, hard to be great.”
#HomaFiles
Follow on Twitter @KenHoma >> Latest Posts
The Homa Files 