Archive for September, 2016

Debate Commission: “Yep, there was a problem with Trump’s audio”

September 30, 2016

This election campaign gets wackier by the day.

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After the debate, Trump complained  that his microphone wasn’t functioning properly at the debate.

“And they also had, gave me a defective mic … My mic was defective within the room.”

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Of course, Team Clinton jumped on that:

According to CNN: Trump’s Democratic challenger, Hillary Clinton, mocked Trump the day after the debate for complaining about his mic:

“Anybody who complains about the microphone is not having a good night.”

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I agree that it was a bad nite for the Trumpster, but …

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Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

Polls: Total garbage … or, canaries in the coal mine?

September 30, 2016

Pundits are trashing online polls and praising “scientific” ones.

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Let’s take some risk today …

As I write this, the expected flurry of so-called scientific post-debate polls haven’t hit the airwaves yet.

Early on Tuesday, we posted about the online polls that showed Trump to have won the debate.

I pointed out that I thought Trump got crushed so I was surprised … especially since the polls were from a range of sites from far-right Drudge to far-left CBS-NY.

I doubted that the shaky Trump organization has a system in place to troll all those sites and stuff all those ballot boxes.

Well, the mass media went nuts … disparaging those polls and putting their golden eggs in the basket of the scientific polls.

Case in point the newspaper of record: the NY Times.

 

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The media and professional pollster (who get paid a lot to be about as accurate as weather forecasters) may be right, but here are a couple of angles for you to consider …

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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Polls & Surveys | 2 Comments »

I do my best thinking when I’m sleeping … say, what?

September 30, 2016

Discussing creativity in class, I casually mentioned that I seem to do my best thinking when I’m asleep.

Specifically, I reported that I like to get to work as soon as I jump out of bed (literally) … and that I often find myself doing a brain dump of thoughts that weren’t top of mind before I’d gone nite-nite.

The revelation initially got some chuckles … then some folks started nodding and chiming in with “me, too” variants on the story.

Of course, some remained unconvinced.

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For the skeptics, here some science …

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Posted in Creativity, Problem solving, Sleep - Sleep Disorders | Leave a Comment »

Stop saying “Don’t grade Trump on a curve”

September 29, 2016

My objection is technical, not political,

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The phrase “don’t grade him on a curve” has now eclipsed “It’s not who we are” as my absolute least favorite.

Folks who are saying it (think, Clinton supporters) are inadvertently flaunting their ignorance (which makes for great irony).

Speaking as a card-carrying academic, my objection is strictly technical.

 

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Let’s get basic.  What does it mean to grade on a curve?

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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Academics - Research, Clinton, Hillary, Debates, Trump, Donald | 1 Comment »

“I ain’t going down no more”

September 28, 2016

Now, will Trump draw inspiration from Rocky?

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The debate reminded me of the classic clip from the first Rocky movie.

In the flick, Apollo Creed –- fighting within the Marquess of Queensberry Rules — was pummeling Rocky … round after round after round.

With little time left in the fight, Rocky uttered those memorable words:

“I ain’t going down no more”

Then, he came out of his corner like a bull and changed the trajectory of the fight.

 

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click to view the memorable clip   <= worth watching

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My view:

Clinton pummeled Trump, but she didn’t knock him out.

Trump landed a few strong punches.

Trump lives to fight another a day.

He’s a fighter.

Let’s see if Trump pulls a Rocky.

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P.S.  I recollect that Rocky won the re-match and took Creed’s title … hmmm.

click to view the memorable clip

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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary, Debates, Trump, Donald | Leave a Comment »

Update: Visceral vs. cerebral … who won the debate?

September 27, 2016

More overnite numbers ….

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Great recap in the Daily Mail … worth browsing – lots of polls.

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Left-leaning pundits — especially Hillary’s surrogates — are apoplectic on TV today.

“Is the American electorate that stupid?”

Which is worse, stupid or irredeemably deplorable?

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Great tweet from Michael Moore to his left-leaning pals:

 

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This is way more fun than I expected I to be

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Here’s the original post from this morning … just in case you missed it.

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First, my overall take:

Hillary was very well prepped, got all of her talking points in and stayed on offense.

Trump wasted too much time defending himself, didn’t hammer the email scandal and didn’t even raise pay-to-play, Benghazi or “deplorables”.

Holt nibbled at Trump all night, but gave Trump the most important gift: making the first 15 minutes about the economy.

Takeaway from that segment – which pundits pre-argued would be determining – was that Trump will be aggressive on saving jobs and Clinton will create tax payer funded green energy jobs.

Advantage: Trump.

Clinton’s biggest score (with a boost from Holt):  birther issue “proves” that Trump is a racist.

Trump’s biggest scores: “why haven’t you done any of this in the past 30 years?” and firmly headlined  “law & order”.

Both demonstrated why they’re the most disliked candidates ever.

OK, now for the numbers which, frankly, surprised me ….

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From left to right:

Time scored it a 50-50 draw.

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CBS scores it Trump 76%, Clinton 24%

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CNBC scores it 61 to 39 Trump.

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And, far right-leaning Drudge has it Trump 80, Clinton 20

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Team Clinton must be pulling their hair out this morning.

There isn’t much else that Hillary could have done – she was locked & loaded.

Maybe there’s something in her message … or her character … or that smirky “I’m smarter than you” smile that she kept flashing.

Bottom line: Pundits will dismiss the internet polls and score it heavily for Hillary …  but Donald gets to crow about the overnite results and lives to fight another day.

My question: what ammo does Hillary have left for the next debate?

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P.S. Yesterday’s post is worth re-reading:
Trump: Inspired by the 1972 Cuban Olympic boxing team?

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#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary, Debates, Trump, Donald | Leave a Comment »

Visceral vs. cerebral … who won the debate?

September 27, 2016

Here are the overnite numbers ….

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First, my overall take:

Hillary was very well prepped, got all of her talking points in and stayed on offense.

Trump wasted too much time defending himself, didn’t hammer the email scandal and didn’t even raise pay-to-play, Benghazi or “deplorables”.

Holt nibbled at Trump all night, but gave Trump the most important gift: making the first 15 minutes about the economy.

Takeaway from that segment – which pundits pre-argued would be determining – was that Trump will be aggressive on saving jobs and Clinton will create tax payer funded green energy jobs.

Advantage: Trump.

Clinton’s biggest score (with a boost from Holt):  birther issue “proves” that Trump is a racist.

Trump’s biggest scores: “why haven’t you done any of this in the past 30 years?” and firmly headlined  “law & order”.

Both demonstrated why they’re the most disliked candidates ever.

OK, now for the numbers which, frankly, surprised me ….

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From left to right:

Time scored it a 50-50 draw.

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CBS scores it Trump 76%, Clinton 24%

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CNBC scores it 61 to 39 Trump.

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And, far right-leaning Drudge has it Trump 80, Clinton 20

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Team Clinton must be pulling their hair out this morning.

There isn’t much else that Hillary could have done – she was locked & loaded.

Maybe there’s something in her message … or her character … or that smirky “I’m smarter than you” smile that she kept flashing.

Bottom line: Pundits will dismiss the internet polls and score it heavily for Hillary …  but Donald gets to crow about the overnite results and lives to fight another day.

My question: what ammo does Hillary have left for the next debate?

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P.S. Yesterday’s post is worth re-reading:
Trump: Inspired by the 1972 Cuban Olympic boxing team?

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#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary, Debates, Trump, Donald | Leave a Comment »

Trump: Inspired by the 1972 Cuban Olympic boxing team?

September 26, 2016

Since the 1st presidential debate is tonite, I thought it would be timely to reprise a post from a couple of months ago.

Read it … and keep it in mind when the contenders spar tonite.

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Many of you may be too young to have witnessed and remember, but…

In the 1972 Olympics, the polished U.S. boxing team was predicted to sweep the competition.

But, something happened on the way to the medals’ platform that shocked the sporting world.

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Here’s the story and why Trump jogged my memory of the 1972 Olympics …

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Posted in Boxing, Cuba - Cuban, Olympics, Sports - Games - Recreation, Trump, Donald | Leave a Comment »

Trumpspeak: It’s all about the way he talks …

September 23, 2016

Since the debate is coming up, it’s time to pull from the archives ….

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Great piece in the Washington Post by Barton Swaim author of “The Speechwriter: A Brief Education in Politics.”

His basic conclusion: “The most distinctive about Trump … is the structure of his language.”

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Swain says that Trump — nnlike most politicians –doesn’t speak in political rhetoric; he speaks in punchlines – short jabs, not convoluted passages.

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Posted in Language, Public speaking, Trump, Donald | 1 Comment »

Digital amnesia: Is Google dulling your memory?

September 22, 2016

First, some background …

The tests I give my students always include some questions that can reasonably be tagged “memorization”.

Some students are repulsed by them and shout the cultural refrain: “Don’t memorize anything that you can look up.”

The apparent thinking: You’ve only got a limited amount of space in your brain, so don’t clog it with an overload of information … only store the stuff you can’t look-up.

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What’s wrong with that argument?

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Posted in Cognition, Cognitive behavior, Digital amnesia, Memory | Leave a Comment »

Are more folks employed in manufacturing jobs or government jobs?

September 21, 2016

Of course, the answer is government jobs.

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Interesting analysis by Terence Jeffrey of CNS News …

According to the BLS, government employees in the United States now outnumber manufacturing employees by almost 10 million.

Federal, state and local government now employs 22,213,000 people: 2,790,000 federal employees, 5,120,000 state government employees, and 14,303,000 local government employees.

The manufacturing sector now employs 12,281,000.

A difference of almost 10 million.

 

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Note on the above chart that manufacturing employment peaked in the late 1970s at just under 20 million.

Government employment has been on a tear since the mid-1940s.

The lines crossed in the late 1980s.

While government employment has leveled off, manufacturing jobs continue to disappear.

So, the gap keeps widening and soon government employment will be twice manufacturing employment.

Think about that for a moment.

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#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

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Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments »

Biases: The “halo effect” … rock on, sister!

September 20, 2016

Since Alicia Keys debuted as a coach on The Voice last night, I have a semi-legitimate excuse for reprising one of my all-time favorite posts … topic is a cognitive bias called the “halo effect”.

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I’ll explain the picture later, but first, the back story.

A couple of interesting dots got connected last week.

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First, I started watching The Voice.

I liked the talent and the bantering among the coaches, but wondered why they used the turning chairs gimmick.  You know, judges can’t see the the performers, they can just hear them.

Became apparent when Usher turned his chair and was surprised to see that the high-pitched soul singer was a big white guy.

Hmmm.

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Second, for the course I’m currently teaching, I’ve been reading a book called The Art of Thinking Clearly — a series of short essays on cognitive biases – those sneaky psychological effects that impair our decision-making.

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Posted in Biases, Cognitive biases, Decision-making, Psychology | 1 Comment »

Hillary Clinton: fashion icon … say, what?

September 19, 2016

An article in this weekend’s Washington Post made me belly-laugh …. and gives me a chance to dig a tidbit out of the archives.

Here’s the headline:

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According to WaPo:

The Democratic presidential nominee is, by no means, the typical fashion icon, not in the manner of an actress, a musician or even First Lady Michelle Obama.

But it is hard to deny her influence, whether direct or indirect — on so many designers.

Really?

Reminded me of  a post by Scott Adams — Dilbert’s author — on his Dilbert blog

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Posted in Adams, Scott, Clinton, Hillary, Dilbert, Trump, Donald | Leave a Comment »

Wedding gifts: What’s the right amount to give?

September 16, 2016

Let’s start with a non-judgmental question:

How much do people give?

SurveyMonkey conducted a survey to answer that question.

The answer – reported by FiveThrytEight — depended on 3 factors:

(1) Whether you’re a high-roller or just skating by …

(2) Your relationship to the couple

(3) Whether you drag along a plus-one guest or not.

For example: On average, high-rollers who don’t bring a guest give immediate family members $500, extended family and close friends $200, and “just” friends $100.

The median gift for folks who don’t bring a guest is $100 for immediately family and $50 for everybody else.

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How much do those antes go up if folks bring a guest?

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Posted in Weddings | 1 Comment »

Why not undercard debates featuring Johnson and Stein?

September 15, 2016

Last weekend, I caught an interview with Jill Stein – the Green Party’s candidate for President.

While she stands zero chance of winning and I disagree with most of her positions, the interview was interesting.

She was articulate and cut to the chase on the issues in a simple understandable way.

Example: “We should go with renewable energy because pollution from fossil fuels is responsible for more than 200,000 deaths each year.”

That resonated with me.

No reliance on weather predictions from dudes who predicted that Hermine would devastate the East Coast this past weekend.

Just a simple: Stop pollution, it causes deaths every year.

I can buy in to that argument faster than worrying about forecasts of the seas rising in a couple of hundred years.

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According to several polls – the MorningConsult being among the latest – a majority of likely voters would like to see Libertarian Gary Johnson and Greenie Jill Stein on the presidential debate stage even though they are below the 15% popularity threshold.

Based on the Stein interview, I’d like to see more of Johnson and Stein. I wouldn’t waste my vote on either of them, but I’d like to here more.

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The prime argument against their participation is that it would shorten the time allotted to Clinton and Trump …

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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Debates, Environment - Green, Libertarian | 2 Comments »

Follow-up: In Google we trust?

September 14, 2016

In a prior post — In Google we trust? – we recapped some experiments that seemed to suggest that Google was rigging its search engine to favor Hillary Clinton.

Now, there’s more evidence …

Robert Epstein – “a distinguished research psychologist” – and his associates at the American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology (AIBRT) — a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization based in the San Diego area — have been investigating claims that Google systematically alters search results to favor Hillary Clinton.

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Here’s what they did and what they found …

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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary, Google | Leave a Comment »

How to rake in $1 million per year during retirement …

September 13, 2016

Answer: Get elected President … and, you only need to serve one term (maybe less)

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Politico ran a story last week, alleging that Bill Clinton used taxpayer money to stake Hillary’s homebrew server.

Frankly, I found that revelation to be very uninteresting.

What caught my eye is the retirement package that Presidents get … more than $1 million per year for life in comp & benefits.

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Here’s the scoop …

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Posted in Clinton, Bill, Government benefits, Pension benefits, Retirement - Social Security | 1 Comment »

Full circle: Hillary has herself to blame …

September 12, 2016

Hillary’s FBI interview teed-up her health as a reason for concern.

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The disclaimers: I’m not a doctor and don’t play one on TV (<= line is from a 1960s TV commercial) … and I don’t wish ill health on anybody, ever, for any reasons.

That said, let’s connect a couple of dots re: Hillary’s health …

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Back in 2012, she fainted and suffered a concussion

That happens, no big deal, right?

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Probably just a coincidence, but note the timing:

It happened after the Benghazi terrorist attack and before her Benghazi testimony to Congress … a period of high personal stress, I imagine.

The implication – according to CNN:

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sustained a concussion after becoming dehydrated and fainting, and will no longer testify Thursday before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on the deadly attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya.

Hmmm.

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Retrospectively, husband Bill filled in a couple of pieces …

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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Hillary Clinton | Leave a Comment »

But he told Howard Stern …

September 9, 2016

One of the sillier aspects of the campaign is Clinton trying to neutralize her yes vote for the Iraq War by using the schoolyard tactic: “Well, he did it first.”

Her evidence: “Trump told Howard Stern …”

Say, what?

And, the MSM is running with the gotcha as a headline story:

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Just for the entertainment value, let’s unpack this story …

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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary, Iraq, Trump, Donald | Leave a Comment »

Commander-in-Chief: Clinton or Trump?

September 8, 2016

NBC: “Trump comfortably earns the support of military-affiliated voters overall 55% to 36%”.

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What a week.

CNN reports a poll with Trump leading Clinton.

Then yesterday, NBC released a poll of military personnel & veterans.

My hunch: NBC was expecting Clinton to win that poll … and probably planned to headline the results in last night’s commander-in-chief forum.

Oops.

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Here’s the rub:

While Hillary holds a slim lead across the broad base of registered voters, Trump wins big — by 19 points — among current military & veterans.image

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Drilling down, a majority of military folks are confident of Trump’s “ability to be commander–in-chief”.

Not so for Hillary.

Only about 30% of military folks are confident of Clinton’s ability to be commander–in-chief.

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P.S. I watched the entire NBC commander-in-chief forum last night.

Here’s my take …

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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Military - Warfare, Polls & Surveys | 4 Comments »

Is ‘Hermine’ a male or a female name? So what?

September 7, 2016

Last weekend’s Florida hurricane, prompts the question …

Answer: Based on popular usage, it is 30.812 times more common for Hermine to be a girl’s name than a boy’s name. Source

What’s the ‘so what’?

Well, some names are deadlier than others.

Female-named hurricanes cause “significantly more deaths”

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Researchers analyzed over six decades of death rates from U.S. hurricanes and concluded that a severe hurricane with a female name is likely to have a death toll triple that of an equally severe hurricane with a male name.

Say, what?

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No, it’s not gender bias … it’s a cognitive bias induced by “Incidental stimuli”.

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Posted in Cognitive biases, Hurricanes, natural disasters, Mindware - Nisbett | Leave a Comment »

CNN: Dissing it’s own poll results … why?

September 6, 2016

Answer: This morning, CNN released poll results – Trump 45, Clinton 43%

I’ve had CNN on background this morning … kudos to CNN for releasing the numbers … but, it has been hysterical listening to the CNN anchors and poli-shills try to minimize the turnaround reported in their own poll.

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Let’s run through the numbers ….

Among likely voters,  Trump leads 45 to 43 … Trump upped his numbers by 4 points, Hilary dropped by 1 point.

Technical note: CNN shifted its polling from registered to likely voters … the latter is commonly regarded as most relevant

 

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Digging a bit deeper ….

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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

FBI: Hillary evaded indictment using the ‘Steve Martin Defense’…

September 6, 2016

By now, you should have heard that – during her FBI interview – Hillary had trouble recalling many details.

Details such as whether she gave or got state department guidance on email policy.

More of the “I can’t recall” items are listed at the end of this post

For the record, she signed a statement stating that she understood the rules & consequences … and emailed her minions about the importance of following the policy to the letter.

Easily forgotten, right?

And, she told the FBI that she could not recall any briefing after her December 2012 fall that left her with a concussion.

Say, what?

That’s presidential timber for you …

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Frankly, I expected Hillary to plead the ‘George Castanza Defense’ … just asking “was that wrong?”

Nope she went the Steve Martin route.

In a famous skit, Martin tips people how to get a million dollars tax-free.

His advice:

First, get a million dollars and don’t pay taxes.

Then, when the IRS calls, tell them “I forgot … I forgot to pay taxes.”

Martin  offers the same advice for bank robbery and other transgressions.

Click to view the 3-minute clip … it’s really funny.

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Also, for the record,  here’s a list of other things that Clinton could not recall in the FBI interview:

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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary, Comedy - Jokes, Comey, James | Leave a Comment »

Noonan: “Can Anxiety Beat Depression in November?”

September 2, 2016

Another interesting Noonan piece in today’s WSJ …

Peggy Noonan observes that there may be a deep psychological dynamic underlying the 2016 presidential race … it centers on depression and anxiety:

Mrs. Clinton is depression:

You know exactly who she is, what trouble she brings — she always brings that sack full of scandal — and you know deep down that she won’t make anything better.

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Mr. Trump is anxiety:

If you back him you know you’re throwing the long ball, a real Hail Mary pass to the casino developer and reality TV star who may or may not know how to catch the ball when catching the ball means everything.

But he’s entertaining—he scrambles all categories, makes things chaotic.

He has fun with his audience.

Noonan’s conclusion: “in America anxiety beats depression because it’s the more awake state”.  I guess that favors Hillary.

But, as Trump would say “What the hell do you have to lose?”

Hmmm.

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Happy Labor Day !

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#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

Posted in 2016 Presidential Election | Leave a Comment »

“Strip mall” teacher rakes in $4 million … now you’re talking.

September 2, 2016

Don’t I wish.

Kim Ki-hoon earns $4 million a year in South Korea, where he is known as a rock-star teacher.

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Here’s how he does  it …

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Posted in Academics - Research, Education - Academics, Teachers & Profs | Leave a Comment »

There are 3 Americas (not 2) … thanks to Obamacare.

September 1, 2016

Article in yesterdays WSJ quoted David Cutler, a Harvard health-care economist:

Obamacare may be “a story of three Americas.”

One group, the rich, can afford health care easily.

The poor can access public assistance.

But for lower middle- to middle-income Americans, “the income struggles and the health-care struggles together are a really potent issue.”

No kidding, Dr. Cutler …

HomaFiles was all over this one back in June:

Remember how healthcare costs were going to drop by $2,500 for every family?

We concluded that in 2016, employees will pay $11,000 out-of-pocket … up $2,500 since 2012.

“Employees” … you know the working class … the middle class.

Here’s our original post …. worth re-reading …. glad others are catching up to it.

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Milliman – a well-regarded actuarial consulting” firm – has published an annual recap of healthcare spending since 2001.

The Milliman Medical Index tracks the total costs of providing health care to an average family of four covered by an employer-sponsored “preferred provider plan” … that’s about 155 million employees and their dependents.

The total includes the health insurance premiums paid by both the employer and the employee, as well as the actual expenditures for health care paid by the insurance plan and out of pocket by the insured family.

The big news: In 2016, the average healthcare costs for a family of 4 surpassed $25,000 for the first time … the $25,826 is triple the cost to provide health care for the same family in 2001 … and up about $5,000 since 2012.

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The bad(est) news is the increased proportion of the healthcare costs being shouldered by individual employees …

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Posted in Health Care / Medical Insurance, ObamaCare | 5 Comments »