Archive for August, 2016
August 31, 2016
My nomination: Dennis Miller.
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NY Times ran a piece contrasting Donald’s and Hillary’s debate prep:
Hillary Clinton Piles Up Research in Bid to Needle Donald Trump at First Debate
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Predictably, the Times slams Trump for a refusal to wade through policy books or practice mock debates.
Hillary, though, is disciplined, studious and advice-seeking.
She’s consulting with psychologists “preparing ways for her to unnerve Mr. Trump and provoke him to rant and rave.”
They conclude that Trump’s hot buttons are: his intellect, his net worth and his image as a successful businessman.
Easy picking, right?
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So, how can Trump possibly win a debate against her?
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary, Debates, Trump, Donald | 5 Comments »
August 30, 2016
Spotted an interesting analysis of a recent Monmouth poll …
Cutting to the chase, the likely voter poll is split roughly in thirds with respect to candidate favorability:
Only about 1/3 view Hillary favorably, less than that view Trump favorably and slightly more than a third view neither candidate favorably.
Note that the “neither” is multiples higher than in past elections.
Previously, there was partisan divide, but partisans at least liked their candidates.
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These numbers are consistent with the most recent WSJ poll:
Dissatisfaction with the two main candidates is at historic levels: 37% of Democrats said they would have preferred that somebody other than Mrs. Clinton become the Democratic nominee, and a resounding 52% of Republicans said they would have preferred somebody other than Mr. Trump.
My take: I think the “neither” numbers are grossly understated.
I don’t think that I’ve run into a single person – on either end of the political spectrum – who is enthralled by their side’s candidate. Not a one.
Most people seem more motivated to vote against a candidate … than vote for one.
Wonder if that will be enough motivation to get people to the polls?
Political pundit Charlie Cook opines that “fear and hatred are the strongest emotions in politics” and motivate voter turnout.
Apathy tends to suppress turnout.
He doesn’t say what “disgust” does.
We’ll see
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, polls, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »
August 29, 2016
Report insinuates that Google gives biased search results.
Here are some surprising results and a bit of tech advice for you.
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Let’s start with a very retro piece of tech advice.
Long ago, a techie friend of mine advised: “Always over-specify your searches”.
English translation: When searching, use more words rather than fewer to make your search more specific and, thus, make the likely answers be most relevant.
If you get no or too few hits, re-search by making the search less specific, i.e. take out some of your qualifying words.
Works for me
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Case in point …
Over the weekend, non-MSM went viral on Google:
Here’s the case that was being reported …
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Posted in Clinton, Hillary, Google, Search engines - SEO | Leave a Comment »
August 26, 2016
How many times have you seen clips of the police confiscating a suspect’s computer for forensic analysis?
Pretty common on Forensic FIles, CSI and the 11 o’clock news, right?
And, the punch line is always the same …
The perps try to delete files & browsing histories, but unknowingly leave behind evidence.
Oops.
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Well, thanks to Team Hillary, FBI documents and a shout-out by Congressman Trey Gowdy, criminals now have no excuse for not covering their tracks.
Introducing to the American consciousness: BleachBit:
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Here’s the story ….
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary, Comey, James, Computer hints & tricks, Computer software, Computers & PCs | 1 Comment »
August 25, 2016
Hint #1: 40 years ago, it was “secretary”.
Hint#2: It’s one of the most dangerous jobs in the U.S.
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Census data was crunched by NPR analysts.
Don’t squint for the labels … just glance at the states’ color coding and make your guess.
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And, the answer is ….
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Posted in Automation - Robots, Careers & Interviewing, Census data | 1 Comment »
August 24, 2016
Short answer: Disproportionately from Hillary.
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According to the latest NBC / Survey Monkey poll (<= gotta love the ‘Survey Monkey””’ part, right?):
No bounceback for Trump … he still trails Hillary by 8 in a head-to-head match-up …. 50 to 42.
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Here’s what I find most interesting …. the 4-way race.
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August 23, 2016
Bottom line: Neither ignorance nor innocent intent are stay-out-of-jail cards for ordinary folks.
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Let’s connect two articles from last week.
The first is a legal opinion from The Hill:
It’s relatively short and direct – well worth reading.
The essence of the legally supported conclusion:
In letting Hillary off-the-hook, Comey revived two old, tenuous legal defenses: “ignorance of the law” and “no direct evidence of criminal intent”.
Every kid is taught that ignorance of the law isn’t an excuse, right?
And, courts have regularly dismissed the need for prosecutors to prove “willfulness”.
If you did it, you did it
Old adage: Do the crime, do the time (or pay the fine).
But, since Comey’s leniency rested on ignorance and willfulness (“no direct evidence of criminal intent”), those defenses are making a comeback.
Here’s a specific case …..
(more…)
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Posted in Clinton, Hillary, Comey, James, Legal - justice | Leave a Comment »
August 22, 2016
Most recent Gallup poll reports a 44% decline in “satisfaction with the way things are going” … and that’s from an already rock-bottom level.
Note that the satisfaction levels were running in the mid to high 20s since the start of 2016 … that number plummets to 17% in the most recent poll … with a 17 point drop among Dems.
Hmmm.
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Posted in Polls & Surveys, Right track - wrong track | Leave a Comment »
August 22, 2016
Weekend MSM headlines focused on Trump’s campaign staff shake-up, not on his favorably reviewed speeches or his trip to Louisiana.
So, I wasn’t expecting any movement in the polls.
Surprise, surprise, surprise.
On Sunday, the USC-LA Times poll reported Trump in the lead.
No less than Dem-favorite pollster Nate Silver sped over to CNN to disparage the poll’s methodology.
Of course, that raised my curiosity.
Bottom line: yep, Donald over Hillary by 2 points.
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Here’s what I find more interesting than the single day’s numbers ….
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Polls & Surveys | 1 Comment »
August 19, 2016
Watching the Olympics last night, I was sneak-exposed to a Hillary jobs ad.
The 3 point plan: (1) make everybody pay a fair share – where, of course, ‘everybody’ is shorthand for ‘somebody who is not you, so cheer’ (2) ‘invest’ in infrastructure – where ‘invest’ means overspend on poorly managed government projects using Cadillac-planned union workers and (3) institute an “exit tax” to keep companies from leaving the U.S.
It was the exit tax that caught my eye … partially due to the ads placement in the Olympics and because Trump gave his economic speech a few hours earlier.
Here’s why …
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary, Trump, Donald | Leave a Comment »
August 18, 2016
Dare to take the “ I Side With …” Presidential Quiz.
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This is a very interesting online quiz from a group called “I Side With …”.
In a nutshell, you just sign on to the site and answer a battery of multiple choice questions in a variety of categories, e.g. foreign policy, social issues, science. It takes 10 or 15 minutes to make it through the questions.
I thought the array of questions was appropriately comprehensive … and the answer choices were fair (i.e. nothing tricky or embarrassing ).
Some of the questions made me pause to check my gut on where I stood on some issues.
That alone made the quiz worthwhile.
After answering all the questions, answers are matched against the candidates’ positions.
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And, which candidate did I match most closely?
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Polls & Surveys | 2 Comments »
August 17, 2016
Over the weekend, former President Bill (Bubba) Clinton lashed out at FBI Director James Comey.
You may remember that Comey laid out the evidence against Hillary … and then let her walk.
Righties were displeased because of Comey’s illogic: The conclusion didn’t follow from the premises.
Lefties simply dispute premises … since they reveal Hillary to be a boldface liar.
Hubby summed it up: “Comey is full of bull …)
Hmmm.
Former President calling out the current FBI Director … who gave his wife a stay-out-of-jail free card.
My question: will Comey take that lying down?
NY Post
He doesn’t have to … Congress just provided Comey with an opportunity to rehabilitate his cred as a straight arrow.
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Clinton, Bill, Clinton, Hillary, Comey, James | 1 Comment »
August 16, 2016
The WSJ jumped on the pile yesterday — outlining Trump’s flaws as a candidate — and opining:
“Mr. Trump, needs to stop blaming everyone else and decide if he wants to behave like someone who wants to be President—or turn the nomination over to Mike Pence.”
Hmmm.
Where have I heard that before.
Oh yeah, in the HomaFiles a couple of weeks ago when we posted:
Wish Pence & Kaine were at top-of-tickets …
Here’s the flashback:
Both seem rational & hard-working with some degree of moderation … history of working across the aisle.
Sure, they’re boring … and my favorite (Pence) would probably lose … but I’d sure feel better about the election.
Agree?
Just imagine: Trump back in the Towers, Hillary finally in jail …. and Pence & Kaine duking it out on the issues.
Two good choices instead of two bad ones.
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August 15, 2016
Frequent readers know that I’m big fan of the WSJ’s Peggy Noonan.
I love the way the lady writes and she always cutting to the chase with keen insights.
Her most recent column is no exception:
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Here are a couple of snippets from Noonan …
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August 13, 2016
This isn’t exactly new news , but for those who cling to belief that CNN is an unbiased source of news …
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Speaking of Hillary Clinton’s campaign –- specifically her fund-raising from fat cats – CNN anchor Chris Cuomo (son of NY Governor Andrew Cuomo) blurted out the usually veiled truth:
We couldn’t help her any more than we have.
She’s got just a free ride so far from the media.
We’re the biggest ones promoting her campaign.
So, it had better happen.
As Gomer Pyle would say:
Surprise, surprise, surprise.
The media bias may not be new news, but the explicit admission by one of the players sure is.
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Watch it for yourself.
The clip is less than a minute … Cuomo starts about 25 seconds in.
Click to view video
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August 12, 2016
Checking today’s polls …
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This week, Trump gave a pretty good speech on his economic plan (<= my opinion) … and a mellow, favorably-reviewed speech to a homebuilders trade association.
But, he got blasted in the mainstream media for rallying 2nd amendment supporters (“obviously inciting violence against Hillary”) … and for referring to Obama & Clinton as founders of ISIS (since BHO pulled ALL troops from Iraq – leaving a hole that ISIS filled).
Here’s the ironic twist:
Trump started the week down 7.7 points on the RCP poll-of-polls.
Today, he’s down 6.3 … still a big number, but 1.4 better than the week started.
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Of course, there were other forces at work: the typical dissipation of Hillary’s post-convention bounce … and, oh yeah, the email – Clinton Foundation thing … she got caught with her hand in the cooking jar again.
Still, I wonder: was it the mainstream media that took the bait this time?
Blasting Trump, they spotlighted terror and gun rights … two of Trump’s strong suits.
Hmmm.
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August 12, 2016
Slot this one in the ‘you can’t make this stuff up” file.
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I don’t really give a hoot about the legalization of marijuana one way or another.
But, I love ironic twists, so …
Story #1
According to NPR:
“The Obama administration has denied a bid by two Democratic governors to reconsider how it treats marijuana under federal drug control laws, keeping the drug for now, at least, in the most restrictive category for U.S. law enforcement purposes.”
“So, under federal law, marijuana remains a Schedule 1 controlled substance, which means it’s considered to have “no currently accepted medical use” and a “high potential for abuse.”
OK, so far so good.
Now, let’s advance the story …
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Posted in Laughs, Marijuana - weed, Obama | 1 Comment »
August 11, 2016
It’s no secret that only about half of the U.S. Voting Age Population (VAP) turns out to vote … and that the vast the majority of Americans are poorly (or narrowly) informed on political issues.
These days, pollsters are saying that a high percentage of Americans have a high level of interest in the 2016 Presidential race.
I got into a friendly debate re: whether “interest” is a valid proxy measure for “informed”.
My POV: nope.
For example, how many people were interested enough to watch the Trump & Clinton acceptance speeches at their conventions?
Here’s the answer …
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Posted in Clinton, Hillary, Polls & Surveys, Trump, Donald, TV Ratings | 1 Comment »
August 10, 2016
Yesterday, we channeled a WSJ opinion piece by Peggy Noonan.
Her takeaway point:
I end with a word that speaks of the moment we’re in.
It is “kakistocracy.”
From the Greek, it means government by the worst persons, by the least qualified or most unprincipled.
We’re on our way there, aren’t we?
Yes, Peggy, we are.
Let’s do a quick recap of yesterday’s news.
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The guy didn’t just “attend” the rally.
He was ushered to a VIP seat right behind the podium.
Team Clinton – which bills itself as a disciplined political machine and is known to script everything — says that they didn’t know who the guy was and that he just slipped behind the podium unnoticed.
Yeah, right.
BTW: Survivors of the massacre were invited guests at the rally.
In classic understatement, the media reported that they were “disappointed”.
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That would have been the story of the day if Trump had just stayed in bed.
But, he didn’t … and seriously gaffed again.
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election | 1 Comment »
August 9, 2016
Brutal op piece by Peggy Nooman in the WSJ last Friday.
The title tells most of the story: “The Week They Decided Donald Trump Was Crazy”.
The evidence: his taking the Khan bait and dissing Ryan and McCain.
“People started to become convinced he was nuts, a total flake.”
That’s all that most folks will take from the article.
But, there was an important twist that most folks will miss or dismiss.
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary, Trump, Donald | 1 Comment »
August 8, 2016
Headline in Drudge: “Grandma helped up stairs.”
In this 2016 picture, a frail –looking Hillary Clinton – who has a history of injuries from falls (including at least one concussion) – hobbles up a flight of stairs with the assistance of Secret Service agents and aids.
Poignant imagery, right?
The mainstream media will likely bury the picture.
But, I fully expect Trump to ask:
“Is she even physically able to handle the Presidency?”
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Before you claim “foul”, there’s a Presidential precedent …
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary | Leave a Comment »
August 8, 2016
I can’t believe my eyes.
I’ve oft opined that the Washington Post is most biased of the Clinton-supportive print media.
Stories of the Post’s 30-person Trump attack team are widespread and not denied by the paper.
So, imagine my surprise when I saw the headline:
The article is a thorough investigative story — not an opinion piece.
Here’s the short version of the story …
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary, Economics, Jobs - Unemployment, Trump, Donald | Leave a Comment »
August 7, 2016
OK, let’s start with the obvious: Trump had a very, very bad week … and, if I were Trump, I’d rather have Clinton’s poll results than Trump’s.
But, Trump’s campaign obit may be a bit premature.
At least one poll’s results suggest that Donald may still have a pulse.
The Reuters / IPSO poll shows a typical dissipation of Hillary’s post-convention bounce … and a statistically significant bounceback for the Donald … narrowing Clinton’s advantage to only 2.4 percentage points … within the margin of error.
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Clintonites surely consider the results to be simply an outlier.
For Trumpsters, it’s a ray of hope.
Which is it?
Here are some factors to consider …
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August 5, 2016
Here’s why many Americans feel bad about the economy.
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First, GDP – a measure of the overall economy – has been growing at a declining rate for the past 35 years.
The blue line below is the year-over-year percentage change of GDP … the red line is my eyeball trend line – attempting to factor out recessionary dips.
The boxes are roughly the Clinton years (green box), the Bush years (orange) and Obama years (red).
GDP growth for the past 10 years has been less than 5% year-over-year.
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Let’s dig a little deeper …
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August 4, 2016
First, how many of us have a 16-character password?
If the over-under is 1, I’m betting the under.
Still, let’s pretend that that your passwords are 16-characters long – a mix of capital and lower case letters, numbers and special characters.
Here’s how long it takes to crack it …
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Posted in Computer hints & tricks, Computers & PCs, Gotcha, Hacking - Hackers, Passwords | 1 Comment »
August 3, 2016
Here’s a shocker for you.
According to a survey taken by Centrify, a leader in identity management, 1/3 of online users admit to suffering from ‘password rage’ … with many of them driven to crying, screaming and swearing.
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Here are some of the survey’s more interesting findings:
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Posted in Computers & PCs, Hacked - Hackers, Passwords | 2 Comments »
August 2, 2016
Last week, the WSJ ran an opinion piece: Trump’s Big Data Gamble.
The punch line: “While Donald tweets to the masses, Hillary will be precisely targeting persuadable voters.”
Advantage Hillary, right?
Maybe. Maybe not.
In an AP interview, Trump said that he “always thought that it (meaning data analytics) was overrated” and, accordingly, he’ll spend limited money on data operations to identify and track potential voters and to model various turnout scenarios that could give him the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency.
He’s moving away from the model Obama used successfully in his 2008 and 2012 wins, and the one that likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is trying to replicate, including hiring many of the staff that worked for Obama in his “Victory Lab”.
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A data-light strategy may sound very old-school in the era of big data … especially coming from Trump …. but it reminded me of an opinion piece that Peggy Noonan wrote in the WSJ soon after Obama’s 2012 election win.
Noonan had a riff about predictive analytics that caught my eye.
It pointed out one of the downsides of predictive analytics … the craft of crunching big data bases to ID people, their behaviors and their hot buttons.
Here’s what Noonan had to say …
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Data analysis, Predictive Analytics, Trump, Donald | Leave a Comment »
August 1, 2016
According to pollster Frank Luntz …
“It’s not the low-information “undecideds” who will determine the election, it’s the “none-of-the-above voter” … who knows lot about both candidates and doesn’t like either one.”
These folks have deeply held opinions about what they want and expect from the next President.
“They can’t stomach the choice between “crude” and “corrupt” … a decision with no good outcome.”
Luntz concludes that these none-of-the-above voters have eight core hot buttons …
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clinton, Hillary, Luntz, Frank, Polls & Surveys, Trump, Donald | Leave a Comment »
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