…. and, it’s showing up in the polls with big implications.
===============
Let’s start with the big picture…
Prior to each Presidential election, Pew surveys Americans to find out which issues are most important to them.
Below are Pew’s results for 2016 and 2020
Here’s how to interpret the chart and the key takeaways…
RCP – Betting Average of 6 “live” betting books
Biden 50.6 Trump 48.7 Gap +1.9
Yesterday: 52.0 47.8 +4.2
Biden July HIgh : 60.9 30.6 +24.3
Pre-conventions: 55.6 43.3 +12.3
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.7 Trump 42.8 Gap 6.9 Undecided 7.8
Note: No polls since Aug.25
538 – Chance of Winning
Biden 61 Trump 39 Gap 21
187,215 Deaths-to-Date
362 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 944 (peak 2.229 April 23)
32,709 New Cases
> 7-day average 39,689
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Details below…
RCP – Betting Odds
Biden 52.0 Trump 47.8 Gap +4.2
Biden July HIgh : 60.9 30.6 +24.3
Pre-conventions: 55.6 43.3 +12.3
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.7 Trump 42.8 Gap 6.9 Undecided 7.8
Note: No polls since Aug.25
538 – Chance of Winning
Biden 61 Trump 39 Gap 21
186,789 Deaths-to-Date
888 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 945 (peak 2.229 April 23)
39,656 New Cases
> 7-day average 39,671
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Details below…
185,865 Deaths-to-Date
1,069 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 952 (peak 2.229 April 23)
47,560 New Cases
> 7-day average 40,287
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Details below…
RealClearPolitics (RCP) tracks betting odds at 6 live betting “books”.
At the end of July, the RCP Betting Odds had Biden up 24 over Trump — 61 to 37.
By the start of the Democratic Convention, Biden’s advantage had narrowed to 12 … 56 to 43.
Coming out of the conventions, Biden’s lead is down to 6 … 53 to 47.
Let the games begin.
CDC covid testing guidance goes from haphazard to ass-backwards
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Earlier this week, the CDC revised its guidelines for covid testing.
For background, the CDC categorized people into “five populations” for which COVID-19 testing may be appropriate:
The CDC previously recommended testing for people in categories in the first 3 categories.
Here’s the big change to the CDC guidance … and why it’s wacky.
184,433 Deaths-to-Date
780 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,001 (peak 2.229 April 23)
36,713 New Cases
> 7-day average 40,700
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Details below…
Minimal research into coronaviruses and no drugs or vaccines in the pipeline.
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In a prior post, we channeled a report titled “The Road Not Traveled” by investigative reporter Christine Dolan.
For details, see: 15 years ago, scientists bet that the next pandemic would NOT be a coronavirus and Why the bad bet?
In a nutshell, Dolan concludes that circa 2003:
The scientific world bet that the next big pandemic would emanate from a more traditional flu and not a coronavirus like Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) or Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).
Obviously, that bet proved wrong … deadly wrong!
And, the implication of the bad bet:
“Although coronaviruses have been recognized as human pathogens for about 50 years, no effective treatment strategy has been developed.”
The fundamental reason: economics.
183,533 Deaths-to-Date
1169 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,028 (peak 2.229 April 23)
40718 New Cases
> 7-day average 41933
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Details below…
Why the bad bet?
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In a prior post, we channeled a report titled “The Road Not Traveled” by investigative reporter Christine Dolan.
For details, see: 15 years ago, scientists bet that the next pandemic would NOT be a coronavirus …
In a nutshell, Dolan concludes that circa 2003:
The scientific world bet that the next big pandemic would emanate from a more traditional flu and not a coronavirus like Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) or Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).
Obviously, that bet proved wrong … deadly wrong!
===========
How did the science community collectively miss the mark?
182,348 Deaths-to-Date
1,235 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,040 (peak 2.229 April 23)
39,021 New Cases
> 7-day average 42,538
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Details below…
That bad bet left us scientifically unprepared for the current crisis.
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Christine Dolan is a former Political Director for CNN and is now an Investigative Journalist, for a site called Just the News.
One of her latest reports provides some important context for this year’s response to the coronavirus.
Dolan’s story starts way back, circa 2003…
181,113 Deaths-to-Date
509 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,057 (peak 2.229 April 23)
41,448 New Cases
> 7-day average 43,236
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Details below…
Pre-convention, Team Trump released the President’s “core” priorities for his 2nd term.
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Here is the initiative in each category that caught my eye:
Here’s the full list…
180,604 Deaths-to-Date
430 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,068 (peak 2.229 April 23)
32,718 New Cases
> 7-day average 43,117
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Details below…
180,174 Deaths-to-Date
974 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,081 (peak 2.229 April 23)
43,829 New Cases
> 7-day average 43,706
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Details below…
179,200 Deaths-to-Date
1,170 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,101 (peak 2.229 April 23)
50,455 New Cases
> 7-day average 45091
(below 14-day average since July 26)
> 14-day average 50,810
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Details below…
B of A says “the Coronavirus is rolling over”.
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If you’ve been following our Daily C-19 Data Dashboard, you’ve undoubtedly noticed that the 7-day moving average of confirmed cases has fallen by over 30% since its peak on July 23.
That’s good news but the case counts– as we oft repeat — are a very fuzzy-math number since they are impacted by the number and mix of people being tested.
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Positivity Rate
Dr. Birx says to watch the percentage of people testing positive — the so-called “positivity rate”.
It’s currently at 6.5% — about 1/3 of the rate during the NY-area outbreak.
That’s also good news but, again, “positivity” is an equivocal metric since it’s impacted by the mix of people being tested.
===============
So, the B of A analysts say to focus on hospitalization rates.
177,424 Deaths-to-Date
1,090 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,009 (peak 2.229 April 23)
45,341 New Cases
> 7-day average 46,442
(below 14-day average since July 26)
> 14-day average 50,810
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Details below…
Hint: Glance at the covid-19 death curves.
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Let’s reprise the oft-cited “Flattening the Curve” concept one more time…
…. and, we presented data that strongly suggests (i.e. proves) that NY didn’t flatten the curve at all — it conformed to the “no mitigation curve” … while press-maligned Florida does seem to fit the flattening curve model.
For details, see A covid tale of two states
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Now, let’s look at NY’s Cuomo-claimed “beautiful response” from still another angle…
176,337 Deaths-to-Date
1,283 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,031 (peak 2.229 April 23)
44,957 New Cases
> 7-day average 47,701 (below 14-day average since July 26)
> 14-day average 50,810
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Details below…
Coincidently, I received 2 related emails this morning.
The first was a Georgetown broadcast email to faculty (even retired ones) and students:
Reasonable advice from Dr. Anthony “Wide Left” Fauci:
“Trust respected medical authorities”.
Hard to disagree with Fauci on that one.
But, begs the question: Who are the medical authorities to be trusted?
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A second message came from a reliable HomaFiles’ source.
He reported that a survey was conducted asking people: “Which medical authority do you trust most?”
And, there was a clear-cut winner…..
Hardly a model of “flattening the curve”
==============
Talk about Chutzpah…
NY has amassed over 30,000 covid-related deaths (about 20% of the US total) … and, almost 1,700 deaths per million residents (2nd only to NJ’s 1,800; almost quadruple Florida’s 455).
Cuomo was bold enough to commemorate New York’s death toll (chart above) on an anatomically accurate “Victory Poster” (image below). Note the shape of the deaths’ curve.
Today, I want to make a very simple (and irrefutable point)….
175,065 Deaths-to-Date
1,349 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,072 (peak 2.229 April 23)
43,906 New Cases
> 7-day average 48,988
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Details below…
Let’s see if the Dems turn on him.
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Dr. Anthony “Wide Left” Fauci made news in an interview with ABC’s Deborah Roberts.
Roberts wash baiting Fauci to endorse mass voting by mail this November.
To her shock and dismay, Fauci said:
“If people follow appropriate precautions, safe in-person voting should be possible during the upcoming 2020 general election.”
Fauci explained…
173,716 Deaths-to-Date
589 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,079 (peak 2.229 April 23)
40,612 New Cases
> 7-day average 50,222
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Details below…
Say, what? C’mon, man.
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Holy Smokes.
Over the weekend, hard-left Politico ran an article sub-titled “What Obama really thinks about Biden”.
Since it’s the eve of the Dem convention, I expected it to be puff piece.
Suffice it to say that I was surprised.
In Obama-speak, the former President “took Joe to the hoop”…
173,128 Deaths-to-Date
522 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,073 (peak 2.229 April 23)
36,843 New Cases
> 7-day average 51,410
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Details below…
172,606 Deaths-to-Date
1,071 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,077 (peak 2.229 April 23)
53,523 New Cases
> 7-day average 52,983
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Details below…
171,496 Deaths-to-Date
1,081 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,060 (peak 2.229 April 23)
59,915 New Cases
> 7-day average 53,079
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Details below…
What are the odds?
===============
OK, everybody knows that on Thursday, Aug. 12, Hidin’ Joe Biden officially named Kamala Harris to be his VP running mate.
Coincidentally, another Kamala Harris made headlines this week; former WWE wrestler James “Kamala” Harris.
According to politically correct CNN, Mr. Harris passed away earlier in the week… Aug. 10 to be precise.
Here’s what makes that story interesting…
170,360 Deaths-to-Date
1,229 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,079 (peak 2.229 April 23)
54,148 New Cases
> 7-day average 53,454
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Details below…
Five “biomarkers” can alert docs to the need for aggressive, immediate treatment
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According to an article published in Future Medicine by George Washington Univ. researchers…
Currently, physicians determine risk for COVID-19 health deterioration and death based on age and certain underlying medical conditions, like having an immunocompromised state, obesity, and heart disease.
People over the age of 65 and those with underlying conditions are typically less able to fight off any infection, not just COVID-19.
But coronavirus has proven deadly to scores of otherwise healthy, relatively young people too – and scientists are still not sure exactly why some COVID-19 patients quickly spiral downward and others have no symptoms at all.
George Washington University (GW) researchers found five biomarkers, medical indicators found in the blood, associated with higher odds of clinical deterioration and death in COVID-19 patients.
169,121 Deaths-to-Date
1,376 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,074 (peak 2.229 April 23)
53,972 New Cases
> 7-day average 54,092
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Details below…
One flattened the curve, the other didn’t … which is which might surprise you.
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Let’s start with the basic concept that has been the basis for the slow-the-spread lockdown and other covid mitigation initiatives: flattening the curve.
The concept is simple and intuitively appealing: Try to contain the spread of the virus so that the hospital system isn’t overwhelmed … and to “buy time” for the development of vaccines and other therapeutic drugs and treatment protocols.
Makes sense, right?
OK, so let’s throw some actual data against the problem and see what we get…
167,562 Deaths-to-Date
1,370 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,050 (peak 2.229 April 23)
52,539 New Cases
> 7-day average 54,403
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Details below…
Not a surprise according to Bayes’ Theorem
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According to the NYT and many other sources…
As part of a screening by the White House, Mr. DeWine first received an antigen test, a newer type of test that provides faster results but is less accurate than traditional laboratory testing.
He tested positive for Covid-19
He was later twice-tested using a more standard procedure known as polymerase chain reaction, or P.C.R., an accurate but time-intensive method that requires samples to be processed at a laboratory.
That test result was negative for the Covid-19.
DeWine’s experience is a classic “false positive” … to be expected based on Bayes’ (Statistical) Theorem.
Let me explain…
166,161 Deaths-to-Date
538 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,025 (peak 2.229 April 23)
48,932 New Cases
> 7-day average 54,344
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Details below…
Data indicates that the worst may be behind us … at least for now.
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The 7-day average for new cases has been trending down for more than two weeks, from more than 67,000 on July 22 to 47,849 on Sunday.
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There are 49,039 Covid-related patients currently hospitalized. Hospitalizations are trending down and are below the 60,000 peaks reached on April 21 and July 27.
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The 7-day average for new reported deaths has also apparently peaked., trending from 1,246 on July 31 to the current 1,036, which is less than half of the peak reached on April 23 (2,229).
==============
The arrows are pointing in the right direction!
165,617 Deaths-to-Date
535 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,036 (peak 2.229 April 23)
47,849 New Cases
> 7-day average 54,289
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Details below…
165,070 Deaths-to-Date
980 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,025 (peak 2.229 April 23)
54.199 New Cases
> 7-day average 54,459
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Details below…
164,076 Deaths-to-Date
1,272 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,047 (peak 2.229 April 23)
62,541 New Cases
> 7-day average 55,063
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Details below…
Finally, some C-19 “prevalence” estimates…
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Loyal readers know that I’ve been frustrated by the lack of practical, personally-relevant data that the public health “experts” have been gathering, analyzing and disseminating.
For example, I’d like to know how likely I am to bump into a person who is infected with C-19 if I leave my house.
Reasonable question, right?
In infectious disease speak, that number is called the “prevalence rate” … the percentage of people in an area who are infectious-likely at a specific point in time.
Current testing procedures don’t answer the question (see: Why is COVID testing still so haphazard?) … so, the “experts” fixate on metrics that are muddled and potentially misleading (see: Birx: “Key metric that I watch is the positivity rate”).
Finally, I’ve stumbled on some “machine learning” analyses that take a stab at answering my question: What’s the Covid prevalence rate?
OK, let’s get to work…
162,804 Deaths-to-Date
1,203 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,074 (peak 2.229 April 23)
58,611 New Cases
> 7-day average 56,258
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Details below…
Today, let’s drill down for some perspective…
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First, as oft-reported, NY & NJ lead the list for total deaths … the 2 states represent about 30% of the US total.
The Top 10 states account for 2/3’s of the US total.
Let’s dig deeper…
161,601 Deaths-to-Date
1,319 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,109 (peak 2.229 April 23)
56,148 New Cases
> 7-day average 57,681
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Details below…
Let’s compare NY (and its North East neighbors) to the spiking Sun Belt states.
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According to Gov. Cuomo, the fawning MSM and Dr. Anthony “First Pitch” Fauci:
Gov. Cuomo did a stellar job managing the covid crisis … and, all of the Sun Belt governors (except CA’s Gov. Newsome) are reckless dufasses.
Really?
I hate to ruin a good narrative with data, but since Gov. Cuomo says to follow the numbers…
Below is a current Covid recap for 4 North East states (NY, NJ, MA, CT) … 4 Sun Belt states (TX, FL, AZ, GA) … and California.
click to enlarge chart
Here are a couple of takeaways….
160,215 Deaths-to-Date
1,287 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,128 (peak 2.229 April 23)
52,055 New Cases
> 7-day average 59,220
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Details below…
The Homa Files 