219,695 Deaths-to-Date
600 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 728 (peak 2.229 April 23)
41,936 New Cases
> 7-day average 46,847
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Details below…
Archive for October, 2020
Oct. 12: C-19 Data Dashboard
October 12, 2020Oct. 11: C-19 Data Dashboard
October 11, 2020219,247 Deaths-to-Date
600 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 710 (peak 2.229 April 23)
47,886 New Cases
> 7-day average 45,377
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Details below…
Oct. 10: C-19 Data Dashboard
October 10, 2020218,617 Deaths-to-Date
879 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 728 (peak 2.229 April 23)
58,994 New Cases
> 7-day average 45,715
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Details below…
Obama: “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f–k things up.”
October 9, 2020Trump’s ace in the hole … or, just wishful thinking?
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Holy Smokes.
A couple of weeks ago,, hard-left Politico ran an article sub-titled “What Obama really thinks about Biden”.
I expected it to be typical Biden puff piece.
Suffice it to say that I was surprised.
In Obama-speak, the former President “took Joe to the hoop”…
Oct. 9: C-19 Data Dashboard
October 9, 2020217,638 Deaths-to-Date
857 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 711 (peak 2.229 April 23)
52,818 New Cases
> 7-day average 44,734
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Details below…
Even more unsettled (and unsettling) science…
October 8, 2020The CDC does another u-turn, turning a near-full 360 on how COVID is transmitted.
Spoiler Alert: It has to do with masks.
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So, how is COVID transmitted?
Initially, the science community (think: Fauci channeling China’s disinformation) told us not to worry … that COVID was not transmitted human-to-human.
Then, we were told that it was transmitted human to human (to human) … via large droplets that contaminate surfaces (think: countertops and doorknobs) and hands … and transfer by handshaking and face-touching.
We bought into that … we started washing our hands and cleared store shelves of hand sanitizers and surface disinfectants (which are still in short supply).
Then, we were told that COVID is transmitted via large droplets that are delivered when infected people cough, sneeze and spray-talk on us.
That conclusion ushered in social distancing and masks went from “won’t help, might hurt” to “best line of defense”.
That’s where we were, but a short-lived CDC guidance revision threatened to upset a big apple cart.
Here’s the back story…
Oct. 8: C-19 Data Dashboard
October 8, 2020216,784 Deaths-to-Date
932 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 721 (peak 2.229 April 23)
48,715 New Cases
> 7-day average 43,959
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Details below…
Did Trump “lie” and “cause” thousands of deaths?
October 7, 2020That’s likely to be a major charge that Harris will be repeatedly lobbing at Pence in tonight’s debate.
For background, let’s reprise a past “must read” post that drilled down on Woodward’s “bombshell” book … which provided fodder for Harris-Biden’s campaign mantra.
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Bob Woodward certainly set the media’s collective hair on fire with his “bombshell” that Trump “knew” that the coronavirus was more serious than he was telling the American people … and, that confusion and delay resulted in “thousands of unnecessary deaths”.
The Biden campaign quickly shifted gears from “Build Back Better” to “Trump lied, people died”.
Really?
Bottom line: Save for the dramatic impact of the audio tapes, Woodward’s “bombshell” is old news that has been debunked by the science (and scientists) … and the data.
Specifically, the NY Times ran an article dated April 11 that detailed practically all of Woodwards’s “scoops” … and subsequently “the science ” — voiced by none other Dr. Anthony Fauci — and “the data” provided context, explanations and refutations.
Let’s start by flashing back to our April 13 post that analyzed the Times’ story…
Note: Trust me, the analysis is as relevant today as it was in April. It’s long, but IMHO, well worth the reading time.
Which scientists to believe & to follow?
October 7, 2020Over 6,000 public health scientists and medical practitioners have declared for Focused Protection.
Their full Declaration is a MUST READ… and, it’s only 1 page.
Here are the key points being declared…
Oct. 7: C-19 Data Dashboard
October 7, 2020215,735 Deaths-to-Date
703 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 730 (peak 2.229 April 23)
39,013 New Cases
> 7-day average 42,529
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Details below…
“COVID tests are almost laughably unreliable”
October 6, 2020That’s the cut-to-the-chase observation of one pundit … and, the WH outbreak appears to support his conclusion.
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Loyal readers know that I’ve been harping from the get-go that the “testing, testing, testing” strategy was haphazard (wrong people being tested) … and potentially problematic (false negatives and false positives).
Well, the chickens have come home to roost … so, maybe the issue will start getting the attention it deserves.
This CNBC headline pretty much sums things up:
Specifically, the White House has relied on a COVID screening strategy intended to bubble-wrap Trump from the virus.
Staffers, guests and reporters have all been required to be tested for the coronavirus with Abbott Laboratories’ ID Now test before entering White House grounds.
That test is a rapid molecular test that can produce results in as little as 15 minutes.
So, how did the “bubble” get breached?
Oct. 6: C-19 Data Dashboard
October 6, 2020214,970Deaths-to-Date
351 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 742 (peak 2.229 April 23)
38,566 New Cases
> 7-day average 42,002
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Details below…
Oct. 5: Election Odds & Polls
October 5, 2020Biden +23.6 in odds, +8.3 in polls
RCP – Betting Average of 7 books’ odds
Biden 61.0 Trump 37.5 Lead 23.5
Trump Best: 49.7 49.8 + .1 Sept. 2
Biden Best : 60.9 30.6 +24.3 July 23
Predict It online betting site
Biden 65 Trump 38 Lead 27 <= new high
Trump Best Aug 31: 53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best July 23 : 63 39 +24
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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 50.7 Trump 42.4 Lead 8.3
Undecided 6.9
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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.8 Trump 45.0Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.2
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538 – Chance of Winning Nate Silver
Biden 81 Trump 18 Lead 63
Oct.5: C-19 Data Dashboard
October 5, 2020214,602 Deaths-to-Date
323 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 736 (peak 2.229 April 23)
31,645 New Cases
> 7-day average 41,788
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Details below…
CDC: 95% survivability rate if over 70 … higher with no symptoms, no co-morbidities.
October 2, 2020Pres. Trump has tested COVID-positive… here are his medical odds.
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Last week, the CDC updated its so-called Pandemic Planning Scenarios.
English translation: They revealed the key parameter settings for their “Current Best Estimate” of COVID outcomes.
Buried in the details (and minimally reported by the MSM) were IFRs — “infection fatality rates” … the odds of dying of you get COVID-infected.
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Here’s the key exhibit from the CDC report.
There are 3 sets of numbers presented: a best case, a worst case and a “best estimate” (where “best” might be more appropriately called “most likely”).
Below, we’ll decode the numbers.
Let’s focus on the far right column — the “current best estimate” of the IFR — the “infection fatality rate”.
The rates are very low … indicating that the likelihood of dying from COVID is very, very low … even if a person gets infected.
Let’s make those numbers a bit more understandable…
The 3rd column is the ISR — the “infection survivability rate” … the inverse of the IFR.
For example, if you’re in the 50 to 60 age group and you get infected, there’s a 99.5% chance that you’ll survive … that you WON’T die.
Even in the most vulnerable age group (the over 70 crowd) the probability of surviving a COVID infection is over 95% … over 07% in the best case and over 91% in the worst case (see charts below).
The 4th column — the F-Odds — are read, for example, that the current best estimate is that 1 in 20 infectees who get infected succumb to the virus.
The grain of salt: COVID deaths are a reasonably accurate number .. but the number of infections is a wild guesstimate given the unknown number of asymptomatic infectees who don’t get tested.
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Flashback: Ohio Gov. DeWine tested negative … after testing positive.
October 2, 2020Not a surprise according to Bayes’ Theorem
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According to the NYT and many other sources…
As part of a screening by the White House, Mr. DeWine first received an antigen test, a newer type of test that provides faster results but is less accurate than traditional laboratory testing.
He tested positive for Covid-19
He was later twice-tested using a more standard procedure known as polymerase chain reaction, or P.C.R., an accurate but time-intensive method that requires samples to be processed at a laboratory.
That test result was negative for the Covid-19.
DeWine’s experience is a classic “false positive” … to be expected based on Bayes’ (Statistical) Theorem.
Let me explain…
If I test positive for COVID, am I infected?
October 2, 2020The answer may surprise you, and it has big implications for test & trace.
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In a prior post, we reported that “Asymptomatics” are not rushing to get tested and provided some subjective reasons why that might be (e.g. no doctor referral, high hassle factor, privacy concerns).
OK, let’s up our game a notch or two and throw some math & economics at the problem.
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I’m a fan of “Freakonomics” … the popular call sign for a discipline called Behavioral Economics … the study of the rationality that underlies many seemingly irrational decisions that people sometimes make.
And, in my strategic business analytics course, I used to teach something called Bayesian Inference … a way to calculate probabilities by combining contextual information (called “base rates” or “priors”) with case-specific observations (think: testing or witnessing).
Today, we’ll connect Freakonomics and Bayesian Inference and apply them to the COVID testing situation…
ANTIFA: I couldn’t believe my eyes…
October 1, 2020
Oct. 1: Election Odds & Polls
October 1, 2020Big post-debate bump for Biden in betting odds
… stock market shrugged off debate.
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Biden +18.6 in odds, +6.6 in polls
RCP – Betting Average of 7 books’ odds
Biden 58.6 Trump 42 Lead 18.6
Trump Best: 49.7 49.8 + .1 Sept. 2
Biden Best : 60.9 30.6 +24.3 July 23
Predict It online betting site
Biden 62 Trump 42 Lead 20
Trump Best Aug 31: 53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 : 63 39 +24
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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.7 Trump 43.1 Lead 6.6
Undecided 7.2
![image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb[2]](https://homafiles.info/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb2.png "image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb[2]")
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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6 Trump 45.1 Lead 3.5
Undecided 6.3
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538 – Chance of Winning Nate Silver
Biden 78 Trump 21 Lead 57
Oct.1: C-19 Data Dashboard
October 1, 2020211,688 Deaths-to-Date
903 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 733 (peak 2.229 April 23)
38,713 New Cases
> 7-day average 39,441
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Details below…
The Homa Files 