Couple of charts – and conflicting interpretations — caught my eye.
First, Wall Street Daily posted their version of an analysis revealing that over 3-in-4 jobs created in 2013 have been part-time jobs.
Their conclusion: “it’s the scariest chart ever”.
Maybe a bit of hyperbole, but certainly worth watching
Here’s another take on the trend …
That’s 41% according to Gallup which has been scoring Obama higher than most polls for the past couple of months.
A majority now disapprove of the job the President is doing.
The trend is down … despite the recent campaign-like swing, an appearance on Leno and, finally, a press conference.
Looks like the “phony scandals” line – which has garnered most of the attention – isn’t exactly catching on.
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RealClear Politics’ poll-of-polls now puts Obama at 43.6% approve, 51% disapprove … putting the President underwater by 7.4 percentage points.
Several polls put the President underwater by more than 10 percentage points … only CBS has his approval higher than his disapproval.
Here’s a recap of all the polls in the average …
I think that practically everybody agrees that weight is a function of calorie intake …. offset by exercise and “normal” metabolic burn-off.
But, at our house at least, there has been an ongoing debate about whether calories consumed early in the day are more likely to be burned off than calories consumed later in the day.
You know, the “eat a big breakfast” thing … complemented with “late night calories turn to fat when you sleep”.
I skip breakfast most days, so I notice more articles saying “total calories are all that matter”
Technical note: It’s a known cognitive bias that people are selectively attentive to information that supports their existing points-of-view
Somehow, my eye caught an article with evidence to the contrary …
Everybody knows vaguely that so-called “credit bureaus” track your credit histories and report them to lenders.
Here are some specifics about credit bureaus that you might not know …
Don’t I wish.
Kim Ki-hoon earns $4 million a year in South Korea, where he is known as a rock-star teacher.
Here’s how he does it …
I used to be a big baseball fan, but my interest has waned.
So, I don’t really care whether A-Rod gets suspended or banned or whatever.
That said, a WSJ op-ed by Fay Vincent – a former MLB commissioner – caught my eye.
Vincent recounted that …
A recent Pew survey has captured a lot of headlines claiming that an increasing percentage and number of Millennials to move back with mom and dad due to the bad economy, rising college enrollments and declining marriage rates.
The headlines are technically true but, in my opinion, are very misleading.
Here’s why …
We’ve been frequently posting about the way employment is “down-mixing” from full-time to part-time jobs.
I personally think that the mix change is one of the most important trends in the economy.
Finally, the trend has become so significant that even the mass media has started reporting on it..
Last Friday … the BLS headline was “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.4 percent.”
High fives, right?
Not so fast.
Yep, total private employment went up 114.186 million … an increase of 162,000 jobs … that’s true.
And, though the job growth was below expectations and below the number usually cited as being required to keep the unemployment rate constant … the increasingly flakey unemployment rate dropped to 7.4%
That’s good news, too … right?
Not so fast.
Here’s the HomaFiles Employment Index … the way to cut to the chase on the employment numbers …
Let’s end “hacked” week with one from the “you can’t make this stuff” file.
LifeLock is one of the companies that monitors the credit applications and credit worthiness inquires.
Todd Davis became LifeLock’s CEO when the company’s founder was ousted for making repeated misleading statements about his shady past and the company’s origins.
For a couple of years, Mr. Davis was prominent in LifeLock’s ads … revealing his social security number and daring identity thieves to crack his code.
Bad idea.
Reportedly, Mr. Davis has had his identity stolen at least 13 times since his taunt-the-thieves commercials.
Yesterday, I told the said story about how some bad guys tried to steal my identity and open up credit cards and car loans in my name.
Bottom line: An ordeal that burned up a bunch of my time and caused plenty of angst … but, no serious damage (that I know of).
Now, as a public service, here’s what I learned that may help you …
Though I’ve on the case re: internet tracking, I’ve gotta admit that I’d been pretty cavalier re: identity theft on a personal level.
Not any more.
I’ve been hacked and “thieved”.
And, take it from me, it isn’t pretty.
Here’s what happened and what I’ve learned that might help you …
A question I’ve asked before: Have you ever listened to one of President Obama’s weekly internet-radio addresses?
I haven’t … and don’t know anybody who has.
More broadly … do you listen to his speeches?
The Wall Street Journal’s Peggy Noonan hit the nail on the head on ABC’s This Week Sunday.
“I think every president in the intense media environment we have now, certainly every two-term president, gets to a point where the American people stop listening, stop leaning forward hungrily for information.
I think this president got there earlier than most presidents. And I think he’s in that time now.”
That presents a context the President’s current speech tour aimed at bolstering support for ObamaCare and quashing the “phony scandals”.
How’s that working out?
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The RealClearPolitics poll-of-polls has Obama’s approval rating underwater … under the 45% Mendoza Line … and trending down.
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While Gallup & Rasmussen – the polls I average to read what’s happening — have Obama’s approval pegged at 45% and 46%, respectively ….
Two polls – Reuters & The Economist – peg Obama’s approval at only 41%.
Ouch
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Maybe Peggy Noonan is right …
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Couple of weeks ago, we posted that Business Insider ranked the MSB MBA program #14.
In a follow-up, Business Insider ranked the “most expensive” MBA program.
Most expensive: NYU Stern,
MSB’s ranking …
According to CNBC …
Driving in the U.S. reached a peak in 2004 and has been declining steadily ever since.
Apparently, high gas prices have registered in the American psyche and spurred some fundamental changes …
Last weekend, I was minding my own business – just tying my shoes – when one of my daughters-in-law exclaimed “You’re tying your shoes wrong!”
Say, what?
I figure that I’ve tied my shoes 10s of thousands of times … the way that the original Grandma Homa taught me.
Wrong way?
My daughter-in-law explained the difference between hard knots and soft knots … showed me the “right” way to tie my shoes.
Since I was, shall we say, skeptical, she linked me to a classic TED talk on the subject.
Here’s how to tie your shoes the right way …
Interesting analysis from the Wall Street Daily …
Residential Fixed Investment — aka. “housing” — has been trending upward in 2012 …
… albeit from a low post-crisis level
… and is still far below the historical average.
Conclusion: Trend is right … with plenty of upside.
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MarketWatch had a piece scolding folks who are saying that we’re becoming a part-time economy.
The essence of their argument:
1) Employment data is noisy and June was a blip
2) Since the bottom of the recession, FT jobs have been increasing fater than part-time jobs
Hmmm.
Let’s dig a little deeper …
Two related articles caught my eye …
First, the Washington Post editorialized that:
The only part of the Obama economy that has flourished is Wall Street.
Only the trickle-down from the wealthy financial players, who have thrived off the conveyor belt of money as it travels from Washington to Wall Street, has had much of a positive effect on the economy as a whole.
Let’s break down the economic fundamentals.
First, a chart showing the “conveyor belt of money” …
Note that the M1 money supply increased from about $1..4 trillion in 2009 to today’s $2.6 trillion.
Shouldn’t a cool $1.2 trillion more in supply of money get the economy cranking into overdrive?
Here’s the rest of the story …
If the answer is less than 366, then Annette Fredskov of Næstved, Denmark might think you’re a slacker.
According to the Copenhagen Post, 41-year-old Fredskov just completed a full year in which she ran a full marathon every single day.
That’s except for the 365th day … when she ran 2 marathons back-to-back … to up her total to 366.
She averaged about 11 minutes per mile for the 9,589 miles.
Here’s the really interesting part of her story …
The city of Detroit has lost more than half of its population over the last 60 years.
In 1950, the city was the fifth-largest city in the country with a population of around 1.8 million.
Today its population is estimated at just under 700,000.
Translation: a tax base that’s asymptotically approaching zero.
Last week, the inevitable happened: the city of Detroit filed for bankruptcy.
The bankruptcy petition seeks protection from creditors and unions who stake claim to $18.5 billion in debt and other liabilities – mostly bloated union pensions.
Here’s a short video that puts the Detroit situation in perspective.
Consider the following regarding the city of Detroit …
“You won’t find the colonel on the marquee or signage,” says KFC President John Cywinski, “but you’ll find more abstract references to our heritage.”
Say, what?
First KFC ditches the bones.
Now, it buries Colonel Sander’s bones …. and his goateed trademark pic.
Here’s the story.
According to a survey by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce ,,,
The answer has little to do with the Fed’s threat to tighten monetary policy.
Though 77% continue to think the U.S. economy is on the wrong track, most small businesses are optimistic about their local economy and individual business.
So, what’s up?
According to a Cato Institute recap …
A couple of economists at a German think tank put together a “tax attractiveness” ranking based on 16 different variables.
They looked at the statutory tax rate … and, they also considered policies such as “the taxation of dividends and capital gains, withholding taxes, the existence of a group taxation regime, loss offset provision, the double tax treaty network, thin capitalization rules, and controlled foreign company (CFC) rules.”
Drum roll …
Out of 100 nations, the German economists rated the U.S. #96 … in the pack with Indonesia, Philippines, Zimbabwe, Japan and Egypt.
Here are the rankings for all nations assessed …
It may not have the tradition and cachet of the the Business Week or US News rankings, but …
Business insider has ranked Georgetown’s McDonough School of Business MBA program #14 in the world.
click to see the complete Business Insider rankings
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The Feds keep reporting steady job growth.
What gets obscured by the headline is that t there’s a fundamental shift happening in the workforce.
Source: ZeroHedge
Here’s what’s going on …
OK, here’s a test for you …
Rank the the following by the odds that somebody who is in the group or who is exposed to the risk is likely to die.
Make #1 the highest risk of dying in the next year; make #7 the lowest risk circumstance
And the answer is …
There are a lot of indicators bandied about to ‘prove’ how well or poorly the economy is doing.
There’s GDP, unemployment, CPI, and many, many other metrics.
Sometimes they provide a consistent view of the economy … sometimes they contradict.
Well, I’ve stumbled on the Ultimate Economic Indicator. An indisputable measure of economic activity …
According to a recent Pew poll, folks perceive that …
Military and teachers contribute the most to society … with doctors, scientists & engineers in the hunt.
Lawyers and business execs contribute the least … with less than 1 in 5 people perceiving that lawyers contribute to society’s well-being.
Here are some of the details that caught my eye …
It’s summer and I’m back to watching America’s Got Talent.
Finally, an act got me amped.
An 11-year old girl who channels Carrie Underwood … only better.
Guaranteed to make you to smile … and probably say “wow”.
Run-up is cute, but skip to the 2:15 mark if you just want to hear the song
On Twitter @KenHoma >> Latest Posts
In an interview with HBR, RHR executive David Astorino said that “one of the biggest and most consistent regrets from new CEOs is that they don’t fire people fast enough.”
That’s not to say that heads aren’t on the chopping block when a new CEO lands.
Some senior positions are particularly vulnerable …
Here are some takeaways …
It’s been a while since we’ve posted on Twinkies near-death experience.
You probably remember that Hostess Brands – Twinkies parents – filed for bankruptcy after one of its unions balked at a new contract … concluding that no wages were better than low wages.
The company’s brands and assets were bought by Metropoulos & Co and Apollo Management Group.
The new owners are consolidating operations, ditching the high wage unions and … deep-freezing Twinkies.
Short answer: After-taxes … if you’re talking no income Red state (think Texas) and a high tax Blue state (think California).
Just ask former Laker Dwight Howard as he packs to head to the Houston Rockets.
Here’s the skinny and some nums…
There were high fives last Friday when the BLS reported a level unemployment rate and – based on the employer survey– 195,000 new jobs.
The numbers from the household survey were less rosy … a gain of 120k jobs.
Still, positive job growth.
Here’s the rub …
The new jobs (and more) were part-time jobs … up 360k on the population survey.
In fact, full-time jobs declined in June by 240k jobs.
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Let’s put those numbers in a historical context …
Yesterday we posted Thunderbird on the rocks? …. citing an Economist article that reported sharply declining enrollments in Thunderbird’s MBA program.
We received a polite reply from Thunderbird’s Associate VP of Admissions and Student Affairs:
There were some incorrect statements made in the recent Economist article.
It is true that we are spinning off a few of our more Executive Education areas into a joint venture, but Thunderbird stands much as it always had.
In fact, the numbers quoted are not represented correctly either as our student body has changed significantly.
In the past years, Thunderbird, like many other great schools, has opened online MBA programs, Masters Programs (Finance, Marketing, etc.), and Executive programs both on campus and abroad.
The actual student body size of Thunderbird is still very similar to what it was 10 years back.
I just wanted to make sure that our friends at Georgetown know Thunderbird is alive and well – though the unfortunate recipient of mal-interpreted data from the media.
Couple of points:
1) Nice to hear that T’bird is, in fact, alive and well … and innovating
2) Hats off to T’bird for their rapid response program … a lesson re: how to handle bad PR
3) Proud to welcome T’bird’s administration to the ranks of HomaFiles readers … now, follow us on Twitter
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Not the cheap wine … we’re talking higher education.
An article in the Economist caught my eye: “The higher-education business – Honours without profits?”
The thrust of the article was that not-for-profit schools are starting to hook-up with for-profit schools … ostensibly to frame a more sustainable business model … merging the intellectual capacity of universities with the content delivery efficiency of the for-profits.
.
.
Interesting, but that’s not what caught my eye … here’s what did.
We’ve previously posted about Samoa Airlines novel pricing programs – charging heavier than average passengers higher fares than average girthed passengers – to offset higher fuel costs to haul them and protect other passengers from “seat encroachment”.
Suffice it to say that readers’ scale tilted away from the idea.
For background, see:
Samoa Air: Pricing by weight is the ‘concept of the future’
Why don’t airlines charge more for these bags?
Well, now GoAir – an Indian airline – has initiated a weight-based program that rolls back the clock to the 50s and 60s.
The theme of the New Yorker article –- titled “Truth Wears Off” –was that most (academic) research was flawed and not able to be replicated. This is, the results were at best true under some special circumstances at a specific point in time, but can’t be replicated. At worst, they’re just plain bull.
Hmmm.
Challenging the integrity of publication-driven academics?
Turns out that the New Yorker wasn’t the first mag on the beat.
Here are the details ..
Earlier this week we posted Nums: Why’s the Fed so bad at forecasting?
We cited Nate Silver’s thesis that economists’ forecasts are generally poor for 4 main reasons:
On cue, the Feds released released their revision to Q1 GDP …
Based on revised data, the economy grew at a 1.8% annual rate in the first quarter, well below previous estimate of 2.4% growth.
The biggest change was a cut in the government’s estimate of consumer spending which is more than 70% of the economy.
Consumer spending growth dropped to 2.6% from 3.4% growth.
Source: USA Today
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The revision — .6% – may initially sound like loose change, but it’s a 25% miss.
So, economic models that operating on the original (higher) estimate have a starting point that is off by 25%.
The error compounds over time.
It’s a version of what theorists call chaos theory … how a seemingly small variation at a starting point can compound into a major effect over time.
= = = =
Side note: And, in the “new normal” economy, the downward revision was good for the stock market since it puts pressure on the Fed to continue pumping money into the economy … the bulk of which is flowing straight to the stock market.
Go figure.
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We’re not talking NSA tracking, we’re talking ordinary old cyber-criminals intercepting messages, seizing account numbers and passwords, and taking remote control of cell phones.
According to Knowledge @ Wharton …
By 2015, more Americans are expected to access the Internet through a mobile device than a PC.
And, 45% of surveyed users do not see cybersecurity on their mobile devices as a threat in the same way as they see it on their computers.
The 55% couldn’t be more wrong.
Here’s why …
What’s the last book you read?
What’s the last book you read just for fun?
A journalism prof mused in the WSJ: “I’m worried that few of my recent students are reading for fun.”
According to a new study from the Mayo Clinic …
Nearly 70 percent of Americans are on at least one prescription drug – up from 44% in 2000 … and more than half take more than one prescription drug..
Here are some details from the study …
Interesting chart from Calculated Risk … plotting the unemployment rat – by state – from high to low.
Here’s the chart … below are some highlights.
Highlights:
Wash Post had an interesting analysis this week titled “This graph shows how bad the Fed is at predicting the future
The crux of their argument: the Fed has a clear recent tendency to mis-forecast economic growth … not by a little, by a lot … forecasting almost twice as rapid growth as is ultimately realized.
For example, in 2009 the Fed was predicting 4.2 percent growth in 2011. But then in 2010 it revised that down to 3.85 percent growth. And in 2011 they revised it further to 2.8 percent growth. And when all was said and done, the economy only grew about 2.4 percent that year. The Fed projected growth almost twice as fast as what actually happened.
What’s going on?
Everybody knows that Blackjack is a game of probabilities and that card-counting can get you kicked out of casinos – because it helps slightly with the odds.
Did you know that math and statistics can also improve your odds in Monopoly?
Business Insider posted a fun (and thorough) pitch re: how to win in Monopoly … a great practical (?) application of math and statistics.
Here are a couple of takeaways and a link to the entire pitch … worth browsing, even if you’re not a Monopoly aficionado.
Useful compilation from Forbes … some no-brainers, some new (to me).
Ranges from clearing browser cookies & history frequently to masking IP addresses.
Worth browsing.
click to view
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According to the WSJ …
The FAA is going to relax rules for electronic “gadgets” used in flight … allowing them to be used at low altitudes … sometimes even during take-off and landing.
Unfortunately, the change won’t apply to cellphones which will still restricted to high altitudes use.
Here are some details …
According to a new Gallup poll, not many people … less than 1 in 4
That’s down from 46% in 1993 … twenty years ago.
Old folks (30%) cut the most slack; college educated folks (15%) cut the least.
Not surprising, liberals (26%) trust TV news more than conservatives (18%)
All of which leads to a bigger question: if folks don’t trust government, corporations, media … what’s left?
Who to trust?
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According to USA Today …
The marriage rate is at its lowest point in more than a century, and the number of marriages across the USA fell more than 5% during the recession.
In 1980 there were about 10.5 marriages per 1,000 population.
That rate is down to about 6.5 per 1,000.
And, almost 1/3 of all people who married are remarrying … 2nd and 3rd timers.
What about shacking up?
The Homa Files 