The Homa Files

Shocker: NY Times concludes that it’s all Trump’s fault…

April 13, 2020

Hindsight: “Woulda, coulda, shoulda”
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Now, that Drs. Fauci & Birx are telling us that the pandemic is nearing its apex, the New York Times thought it was the perfect moment to let a worried nation know that they had broken the case: it’s all President Trump’s fault.

click to read the article

Cutting through the political rhetoric, the Times appears to have 5 main beefs with the way Trump has handled the situation:

He didn’t run around yelling “FIRE! FIRE! FIRE!” in January.
He was slow to pull the trigger on the Chinese travel ban.
He didn’t move quickly enough to place replenishment orders for medical supplies and equipment.
He botched the roll-out of the testing system.
He waited too long to order social distancing and shut-down the economy.

OK, let’s drill down on those one at a time.

WaPo: Nope, Trump didn’t call coronavirus a hoax …

April 13, 2020

Biden said he did … and it got him 4 Pinocchios.
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Seems like this one just won’t go away…

Fortunately, the fact-checkers at the Washington Post — not exactly a right-wing, Trump-loving rag — looked into the “said it was a hoax” claim when Crazy Joe started running it in a campaign ad.

What did they find?

Let’s start with the ad’s “manipulation”:

The video shows a montage of intentionally unflattering clips of President Trump.

So far, it looks like a standard Internet campaign ad.

At the 10-second mark, the camera shows a tight shot of the president saying “coronavirus” and then cuts to a wide shot where he says, “this is their new hoax.”

What’s wrong with that?

The fact-checker explains….

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19, Trump, President Donald J. | Leave a Comment »

April 13: Covid-19 UPDATE

April 13, 2020

Recommended Reading:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Remember when Cuomo (and the media) trashed Trump for not believing the models?

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TODAY”S DATA

1,635 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
2 Consecutive decreasing days
1,055 in NY+NJ+CT 65% of Total US

Pivotal question: Past the apex?

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
1,983 on April 10 Prior forecast 2,212

Cumulative U.S. Deaths
22,215 Worldometer
22,109 JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 130 on 4/12

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STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Summary

NY+NJ+CT = 12,289 55% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 18,745 84% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 117 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
MD 235 Total Deaths 29 DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

Remember when Cuomo (and the media) trashed Trump for not believing the models?

April 12, 2020

Now, the Gov. says all of the models and projections were wrong (but it’s not his fault)
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You could see this one coming a mile away…

A couple of weeks ago, Gov. Cuomo repeatedly (and loudly) sounded the alarm that New York needs 30,000 ventilators from the Feds .. and urged President Trump to use the Defense Production Act to force companies to make more ventilators, pronto.

Trump pushed back, saying that the numbers just didn’t pass the smell test.

Countering that was easy pickings for Cuomo, who immediately shot back.

Gov. Cuomo defended the state’s request for 30,000 more ventilators to save coronavirus patients.

After all, he gathered predictions from Weill Cornell Medicine, the CDC and blue chip consulting firm McKinsey and Company.

“All the predictions say you could have an apex needing 140,000 beds and about 40,000 ventilators. We only have 11.000.”

Upping the ante, Cuomo decided that he could use the situation to school the seat-of-the-pants President.

April 12: Covid-19 UPDATE

April 12, 2020

Recommended Reading:

How strictly are you complying to stop the spread?

What you need to know about the IHME Model…

Why have the model’s forecasts dropped so much?

===============

TODAY”S DATA

1,819 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
5 Consecutive days ~ 2,000 DND
1,,077 in NY+NJ+CT 59% of Total US

Pivotal question: An apex or a plateau?

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,212 on April 12 Revised DOWN 918 on 4/7

Cumulative U.S. Deaths
20,580 Worldometer
20,608 JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 21,351 on 4/7

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STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Summary

NY+NJ+CT = 11,304 55% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 17,371 84% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 109 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
MA, IL moving up in ranking
Indiana is #13 with 330 Deaths +30 DND
MD 206 Total Deaths 35 DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

April 11: Covid-19 UPDATE

April 11, 2020

Recommended Reading:

Why is New York ablaze while California is just simmering?

Why have the model’s forecasts dropped so much?

What you need to know about the IHME Model…

How strictly are you complying to stop the spread?

===============

TODAY”S DATA

Cumulative U.S. Deaths
18.761 Worldometer
18.777 JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 21,351 on 4/7

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2,064 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
4 Consecutive days ~ 2,000 DND
Pivotal question: An apex or a plateau?
1,,077 in NY+NJ+CT

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,212 on April 12 Revised DOWN 918 on 4/7

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State-by-State Detail …

Why have the model’s forecasts dropped so much?

April 10, 2020

The explanation is really quite simple
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Pundits are jumping all over the modelers – specifically, the team at Washington University’s IHME – accusing them of being inept or politically motivated.

I don’t think either of those accusations are true.

Here’s why…

Let’s start with the numbers.

The initial IHME projection, made on March 25, was 81,114 “deaths from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US.”.

At that time, the 95% confidence interval (in layman’s terms: the range of uncertainty) was 38,242 to 162,106.

For more detail on the IHME Model, see our previous post:
What you need to know about the IHME Model

Note that the confidence level was explicit … and admittedly very large.

The IHME forecast has been revised at least 5 times since March 25.

Note that he current projection (60,415) is well within the original confidence interval (38,242 to 162,106) … it’s not some sort of wildly whacky outlier.

Still, let’s drill down on the initial forecast (81,114) and the current projection (60,415).

How strictly are you complying to stop the spread?

April 10, 2020

Take the Gallup stay-at-home gut check and see how you compare.
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Drs. Birx & Fauci have repeatedly praised us for staying home to stop the spread … reassuring us that mitigation is working.

Well, how are we doing?

Gallup surveyed America to find out.

Before revealing the results, slot yourself along Gallup’s stay-at-home spectrum.

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“Thinking about everything you’ve done in the past 24 hours, which of the following comes closest to describing your in-person contact with people outside your household?”

Completely isolated myself, having no contact with people outside my household
Mostly isolated myself, having very little contact with people outside my household
Partially isolated myself, having some contact with people outside my household
Isolated myself a little, still having a fair amount of contact with people outside my household
Did not make any attempt to isolate myself from people outside my household

=============

OK, let’s see how you compare to other Americans….

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19 | 3 Comments »

April 10: COVID-19 Tracker

April 10, 2020

Recommended Background Reading:
Why is New York ablaze while California is just simmering?
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TODAY”S DATA

Cumulative U.S. Deaths
16,697 Worldometer
16,686 JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 21,351 on 4/7

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1900 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
3 Consecutive high DND days
1,104 in NY+NJ+CT

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,212 on April 12 Revised DOWN 918 on 4/7

=============

State-by-State Detail …

April 9: COVID-19 Tracker

April 9, 2020

Cumulative U.S. Deaths
14,797 Worldometer
14,808 JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 21,351 on 4/7

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1,940 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
Consecutive high days in DNDs
1,104 in NY+NJ+CT

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,212 on April 12 Revised DOWN 918 on 4/7

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State-by-State Detail

Why is New York ablaze while California is just simmering?

April 8, 2020

That’s a question that I’ve been pondering…
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The WSJ ran a piece titled “The Art of Coronavirus Modeling”.

Its main point was that statistical models are “tools, not oracles” … that the drastic recent changes in the IHME Model’s forecasts is evidence that models are, by their nature, imperfect and shouldn’t be used as sole determinants of policy.

I agree with all of that, but it’s not new news.

What caught my attention was that the article offered up some clues and conjecture about a question that has been on my mind: Why is New York ablaze with coronavirus while California is just simmering?

Here’s what the WSJ offered up on the question…

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19 | 3 Comments »

Some determinants of urban viral contagion…

April 8, 2020

In a prior post, we recapped the IHME Murray Model — the coronavirus forecasting model foundational to the Coronavirus Task Force’s thinking.

See: What you need to know about the IHME Model

And, in a subsequent post, we concluded that — given historical precedents — data modelers would be well served including some measure of urbanization in their models.

See: ‘“Pandemics naturally thrive most in big cities”

Digging a bit deeper, I came across a study by a group called Heartland Forward.

The study report has lots of data, charts and maps.

The study proposes determinants of high rates of contagious infection … some of which are directly related to urbanization.

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19 | Leave a Comment »

April 8: COVIDS-19 Tracker

April 8, 2020

Cumulative U.S. Deaths
12,857 Worldometer
12,911 JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 21,351 on 4/7

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1,970 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
See technical note at end of post
Big spike up in DNDs
1,031 in NY+NJ+CT

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,212 on April 12 Revised DOWN 918 on 4/7

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State-by-State Detail

Good news: dogs can’t catch coronavirus…

April 7, 2020

Bad news: cats can.

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With the coronavirus spreading rapidly around the world, some pet owners have raised concerns about whether their pets can become infected and pass the virus along to other animals and, oh yeah, people.

Posted in Cats & dogs, Coronavirus - Covid 19 | 1 Comment »

Raise your hand if you want to be in the placebo group…

April 7, 2020

We opted for a “doctor supervised off-label test” instead of a randomized control test. Here’s why.
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Dr. Fauci has consistently dissed the use of hydroxychloroquine because there hasn’t been a large-scale, double-blind control test proving its efficacy.

There are plenty of field reports, patient testimonials and doctors prescribing the drug “off-label” (or even using it themselves as a prophylactic).

But, Dr. Fauci advises that we all just chill for a year or so until the “proper” scientific testing is done.

That point-of-view hits close to home.

Here’s a very personal story…

April 7: COVID -19 Tracker

April 7, 2020

Cumulative U.S. Deaths
10,943 Worldometer
10,993 JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
81,766 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 11.765 on 4/4

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1,323 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
See technical note below chart
3-day average relatively level

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
3,130 on April 16 Revised UP 486 on 4/4

Technical note: Worldometer’s calculation of DNDs sometimes falls out of sync with their reporting of Total Deaths. Probably due to reporting issues on granular state data. We check the Worldometer Total Deaths against the JHU reporting … and do our own calculation of DNDs by comparing day-to-day Total Death numbers.

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State-by-State Detail

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19 | Leave a Comment »

“Pandemics naturally thrive most in big cities”

April 6, 2020

In a prior post, we recapped the IHME Murray Model — the coronavirus forecasting model foundational to the Coronavirus Task Force’s thinking.

See: What you need to know about the IHME Model

The model’s developers make clear that the model does not consider either population density or the utilization of public mass transit.

In other words, it doesn’t consider the effect of urbanization.

I expect that the model will be refined to consider the urbanization variable since Dr. Birx keeps saying “we’ll be drilling down to the county level” … and since some pandemic historians note that pandemics naturally thrive most in big cities.

Here’s what they’re talking about…

Fact Check: Cuomo was told in 2015 that NY would be15,783 ventilators short…

April 6, 2020

… and, he still hasn’t taken NY-based Remington Arms’ offer to make ventilators.
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It has become a daily ritual: Gov. Cuomo warns the NY needs 40,000 ventilators and the Federal Government (think: Trump) is letting him down.

He conveniently forgets to mention that his own public health task force told him that NY would be 15,783 ventilators short if hit by a “severe” pandemic … and provided him with “ethical” guidelines for rationing ventilators if faced with a shortfall.

More specifically …

April 6: COVID-19 Tracker

April 6, 2020

Cumulative U.S. Deaths
9,620 Worldometer
9,648 JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
93,531 by August 4

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1,166 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
See technical note below chart

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,644 on April 16

Dotted red line is 3-day moving average

Technical note: Worldometer’s calculation of DNDs sometimes falls out of sync with their reporting of Total Deaths. Probably due to reporting issues on granular state data. We are validity check the Worldometer Total Deaths against the JHU reporting … and do our own calculation of DNDs by comparing day-to-day Total Death numbers.

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State-by-State Data

Trump quadruples down on Hydroxychloroquine…

April 5, 2020

… and broaches the “elephant in the room” re: ventilators
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Just in case you missed yesterday’s Task Force press conference …

As usual, there was lots of repetition — from prior days and within the news conference. Reporters asked the same questions. Trump gave approximately the same answers and the medical scientists gave the same dignified but elusive answers.

There were a couple of very noteworthy takeaways:

1. Trump kept cycling back to Hydroxychloroquine.

His basic line of reasoning: Now that we have “millions of doses” available, a lengthening list of positive “anecdotes” and small-scale studies, decades of safe usage … and nothing else in our therapeutic quiver … “what have we got to lose”.

Fauci’s repeated answer: because there haven’t been large-scale, closely supervised, double-blind randomized, controlled tests … is, in my opinion, sounding increasingly out-of-touch with the realities of this war.

I was waiting for some reporter to ask Fauci: “Have their been randomized controlled tests on the effect of locking down a country?” Of course, that didn’t happen.

Somewhat exasperated, Fauci resorted to “Doctors can prescribe it if they want.” … which is only partially true since Cuomo and a couple of other governors have limited HC prescriptions to hospitalized patients.

Cutting to the chase: Oddly, Trump’s presidency is now largely dependent on the success of hydroxychloroquine. If it works to substantially blunt the pandemic’s impact, he wins. If it doesn’t, he loses.

===============

2. Trump explicitly broached a very sensitive question regarding ventilators.

April 5: COVID-19 Tracker

April 5, 2020

Cumulative U.S. Deaths
8,454 Worldometer
8,503 JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
93,531 by August 4

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1,051 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
See technical note below chart

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,644 on April 16

Technical note: Worldometer’s calculation of DNDs has fallen out of sync with their reporting of Total Deaths. Probably due to reporting issues on granular state data. Starting today, we are validity checking the Worldometer Total Deaths against the JHU reporting … and doing our own calculation of DNDs by comparing day-to-day Total Death numbers.

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State-by-State Data

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 1 Comment »

State-by-state COVID19 Deaths – Total and Per Capita

April 4, 2020

A reader asked “What happens when state-by-state numbers are normalized to per capita?”

So, we pulled the numbers together…

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Below are the 16 states with the highest number of cumulative COVID19 deaths to date.

The right-hand column normalizes the numbers to “Deaths per Million” based on population.

Technical note: As loyal readers know, I think the oft-mentioned death rate (Deaths divided by Confirmed Cases) is very problematic. The denominator should be Total Cases … but, that number is unknown because of the untested, asymptomatic cases.

The current total U.S. Deaths Per Million (DPM) is 22.6.

Obviously, NY is in a world of its own at 165.5 deaths per million (DPM).

The other high rankers (highlighted in red) are LA (79.7 DPM) and NJ (72.3 DPM).

The low ranking states (high cumulative deaths but low DPM) are highlighted in green: CA (7.1 DPM), FL (7.7 DPM) and PA (8.0 DPM).

My take: the standout states are CA – which was early infected but appears to have things relatively under control) and LA – which is high on the list in both total deaths-to-date and DPM.

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Let’s cut the data one more way … sorting by Deaths Per Million.

click to view a 30 sec. video

Why did Trump initially play down the coronavirus threat?

April 4, 2020

Let’s make this a multiple choice:

Because he’s a stupid, anti-science dufass
Because he’s a pathological liar
Because he that’s what his science advisers were telling him

Roughly half of the country would probably pick #1 or #2 because they hate Trump and get all of their news from the left-leaning MSM (which would likely go 100% for #1 or #2 ).

Well, it turns out that the real answer is #3.

We previously posted Dr. Birx recent admission that she “didn’t see this coming.”

See: Birx: “I didn’t see it coming”

What about Dr. Fauci – world renowned infectious disease expert, media-crowned truth teller, and key Trump science adviser?

Well, it turns out that circa late January and early February, Dr. Fauci was saying:

This not a major threat for the people of the United States, and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about.

Here’s a video clip of Dr. Fauci saying just that on January 21…

For more examples. see non-partisan RealClearPolitics mash-up of public statements by Dr. Faucii and other ranking members of the scientific community.

My point isn’t to trash Dr. Fauci … it’s just to provide a plausible explanation for why Trump initially played down the virus.

Perhaps, he wasn’t defying the scientists … he was listening to them and channeling their working hypotheses.

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Follow on Twitter @KenHoma

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Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19 | 4 Comments »

April 4 – COVID-19 Tracker

April 4, 2020

1,328 Daily New Deaths Worldometer

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,644 on April 16

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7,403 Cumulative U.S. Deaths Worldometer

NY = 3,218 43% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
93,531 by August 4

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State-by-State Data

click to view the video

Dr. Fauci gets grilled on Hydroxychloroquine…

April 3, 2020

This is the interview that I’ve been waiting for…

There is a growing list of anecdotal evidence, field tests and doctor sentiments in favor using Hydroxychloroquine (HC) to treat coronavirus patients.

See our posts for more detail:

The plural of “anecdotes” isn’t “data” … or is it?

Hey, Dr. Fauci: Here’s a randomized control study for you…

But, the beloved Dr. Fauci says to hold off until there are closely controlled, large scale randomized tests of the drugs safety and efficacy, even though such tests would take several months at the best.

This morning he was “confronted” with the evidence and, in effect, asked to defend why he’s slow-rolling use of about the only therapeutic drug that’s currently in our coronavirus quiver.

Predictably, he trashed the studies (“not sufficiently robust’), dismissed the doctor surveys (“we don’t decide based on what doctors feel”) and rejected current usage patterns (“doctors can do whatever they want”).

The 5-minute segment is worth viewing.

Depending on where you stand on the Hydroxychloroquine situation, you’ll either think the guy is a champ or a chump!

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Follow on Twitter @KenHoma

>> Latest Posts

#HomaFiles

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19 | Leave a Comment »

Dr. Birx was asked about the reported “false negatives”…

April 3, 2020

… and, her answer made me very nervous
==============

Yesterday the WSJ reported that:

“Health experts now believe nearly one in three patients who are infected are nevertheless getting a negative test result.”

For details and links, see our post:
WSJ Shocker: 1 in 3 infected patients gets a ’false negative’ test result.

I expected that the story would send shockwaves around the DC science community and, for sure, be a reporter’s question at the daily Coronavirus Task Force press conference.

I was half-right … Dr. Birx was asked the question: “What about the report of 1/3 false negatives?”

Paraphrasing her answer:

1. We have to look into that – probably anomalies since….

2. Test results across sites are fairly consistent … and about what we’d expect.

3. If true, 1/3 false negatives would mathematically give an unrealistic incidence rate.

Let’s drill down on each of those answers:

April 3: COVID-19 Tracker

April 3, 2020

COVID-19 Deaths (Daily & To Date) Worldometer

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963 Daily New Deaths Down Slightly Worldometer

Projected Daily New Deaths IHME Model

Peak DND Projection: 2,644 on April 16

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6,075 Cumulative U.S. Deaths Worldometer

Projected U.S. Deaths IHME Model

Up 10,000 since 3/31/2020
NY = 16,261 17.5% of US Total

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State-by-State Data
(more…)

WSJ Shocker: 1 in 3 infected patients gets a ’false negative’ test result.

April 2, 2020

If this true, it explains why NY is still on fire.
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First, the basics.

Only people who are symptomatic are supposed to get a coronavirus test.

If a person tests positive, they are either given clear directions to self-quarantine, or if their symptoms are severe, they are admitted to the hospital for care.

If a person doesn’t have coronavirus but tests positive, the consequences are pretty minimal: the patient is hospitalized until recovered (or the docs detect the testing error) … or the person is sent home to self-quarantine for 2 weeks. That’s basically no harm – no foul.

But, on the other hand, if a person has coronavirus and test is negative (i.e. the test misses the coronavirus), the patient is sent home (i.e. denied hospital admittance) and sent back home, believing that they’re clean of coronavirus.

English translation: they’re back in circulation not knowing that they are infected … and, most likely, infecting other people.

==============

Here’s the showstopper …

The WSJ is reporting that:

“Health experts now believe nearly one in three patients who are infected are nevertheless getting a negative test result.”

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19 | 3 Comments »

Hey, Dr. Fauci: Here’s a randomized control study for you…

April 2, 2020

Its conclusion: Hydroxychloroquine helps patients!
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As reported in the New York Times …

Based on a randomized control study, Chinese researchers report that:

Coughing and fever eased a day or so earlier in the patients who received hydroxychloroquine, and
Based on CT scans, pneumonia improved significantly in 80.6% who received hydroxychloroquine, as opposed to 54.8% in the control group.
Only 2 patients had minor side effects from hydroxychloroquine: One had a rash and another had a headache.
The illness turned severe in four patients — all in the control group.

According to Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University:

“The findings strongly support earlier studies suggesting a role for the drug (hydroxychloroquine)”

Digging deeper…

April 2: COVID-19 Tracker

April 2, 2020

COVID-19 Deaths (Daily & To Date) Worldometer

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Daily New Deaths UP Worldometer

Projected Daily New Deaths IHME Model

Peak DND Projection: 2,644 on April 16

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Cumulative U.S. Deaths Worldometer

Projected U.S. Deaths IHME Model

Up 10,000 since 3/31/2020
NY = 16,261 17.5% of US Total

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State-by-State Data
(more…)