The LA Times poll – 4th most accurate in 2012 – had the race tied a week ago.
Now, it’s Trump 47, Clinton 43 …
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Archive for October, 2016
LA Times: Trump +4 post-FBI announcement.
October 31, 2016Stop saying that Comey’s action is unprecedented …
October 31, 2016There was an election season DOJ action that’s partially responsible for the mess we have now.
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My conclusion in July was that Comey ruled illogically because he didn’t want to be responsible for tilting a potentially historic election.
But, WikiLeaks revelations and an internal agents’ revolt left him no choice but to re-open the case. It was becoming clearer by the day that he (not the FBI agents!) blotched the case.
Now, left-leaners are crying “foul” … asserting that the DOJ shouldn’t get involved in cases involving high profile candidates in the run-up to an election … especially if the charges are as “trivial” as carelessly handling our nation’s top secret information.
Say, what?
Memo to Comey: It was DOJ action that changed the course of our nation in 2008 — giving us, for example, ObamaCare.
Flashback to 2008 … you know, the year that Barack Obama was elected.
Well, the DOJ didn’t indict Sen. John McCain for anything … or, overtly pave the way for Obama’s election …. but the DOJ did tilt the scales in a defining way.
Who did they indict?
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The DOJ indicted Alaska’s Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican senator in U.S. history. He was indicted during his 2008 re-election campaign.
What were the charges, what were the implications, and how was the case ultimately resolved?
Our poll-of-polls: Dead heat !
October 31, 2016Bottom line: Trump seems to have gotten a 2 to 3 point bounce from the FBI action … pulling even with Clinton.
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Recap: WaPo & IBD have Clinton still up by 1 point … LA Times has Trump up 2 … average = dead heat.
LA Times / USC
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Alt + Control + Undelete <= updated
October 30, 2016Quick takes on the FBI re-opening Hillary-gate ….
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Irony
Ironic that somebody who BleachBit 33,000 subpoenaed emails is now ranting the virtues of transparency.
Also ironic: a campaign that has centered on an opponent’s sexual indiscretions is rocked by revelations from another sexual indiscretion case involving a Weiner (that isn’t Bill’s).
P.S. Reports are that many of the 10,000+ emails are from the deleted 33,000 … perhaps, in the spirit of transparency, Hillary should release the 33,000 … gotta believe that there’s a stash of them somewhere.
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U-turn
After months of praising Comey’s impartiality and courage … Team Hillary now is complaining that he’s a political hack.
I guess that the original Grandma Homa was right: what goes around, comes around.
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Conspiracy
Conspiracy from the left: Predictable rants that Comey was just lying in wait to pounce at the right time and help Trump
Score that one far-fetched.
Conspiracy from the right: Chatter that the FBI action is simply to draw attention away from bigger sins, e.g the “Bill Clinton, Inc.) revelations of egregious pay-to-play – shaking down countries & companies for special state department treatment.
Score that one fetched.
Conspiracy from right: AG Lynch trying to squash investigation to protect Hillary.
Score that one certain since multiple sources report it.
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The Issue
Finding more classified info doesn’t move the case forward.
So, Comey must think there’s either evidence of intent … or lying to the FBI.
Remember, it was the latter that put Scooter Libby in jail during the the Watergate fiasco.
Update: Huma told FBI that she had turned over all personal devices with the Hillary emails.
Oops.
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Likely outcome
Huma will get thrown under the bus (or, jump under the bus) and take the fall for mis-handling classified info … clear proof that she moved classified info to a non-secure system … and proof that she fibbed to the FBI.
That won’t close the investigation … don’t forget that a video emerged of Hillary lecturing State Department personnel that using personal email for State business is a violation of policy and a crime if there’s classified info. No number of “can’t recall” claims neutralize that one. She knew it was a crime and did it anyway. Comey can’t ignore that.
Hillary Clinton will be the first candidate to be elected President while under FBI investigation.
President Obama will pardon her on or about November 9 “for the good of the country”.
Keep in mind that Wiki revealed that Obama emailed Clinton on her private server address … sometimes using a Carlos-Danger-like alias. OK, maybe he didn’t notice the email address, but … using an alias? It’s in the President’s to pardon Hillary and stop the investigation.
When the pardon is issued, about half of the country will agree with Trump that the system is rigged.
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Another shoe to drop?
I’m still expecting WikiLeaks to drop a real show-stopper.
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You just can’t make this stuff up.
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WaPo: 12 => 6 => 4 => 2
October 29, 2016Latest poll results before FBI re-opening of the case …
English translation: WaPo has reduced over-weighting of Dems in their headline numbers.
So, the answer is …
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Alt + Control + Undelete
October 29, 2016Quick takes on the FBI re-opening Hillary-gate ….
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Irony
Ironic that somebody who BleachBit 33,000 subpoenaed emails is now ranting the virtues of transparency.
Also ironic: a campaign that has centered on an opponent’s sexual indiscretions is rocked by revelations from another sexual indiscretion case involving a Weiner (that isn’t Bill’s).
P.S. Reports are that many of the 10,000+ emails are from the deleted 33,000 … perhaps, in the spirit of transparency, Hillary should release the 33,000 … gotta believe that there’s a stash of them somewhere.
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U-turn
After months of praising Comey’s impartiality and courage … Team Hillary now is complaining that he’s a political hack.
I guess that the original Grandma Homa was right: what goes around, comes around.
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Conspiracy
Conspiracy from the left: Predictable rants that Comey was just waiting in hiding to pounce at the right time and help Trump
Score that one far-fetched.
Conspiracy from the right?: Chatter that the FBI action is simply to draw attention away from bigger sins, e.g the “Bill Clinton, Inc.) revelations of egregious pay-to-play – shaking down countries & companies for special state department treatment.
Score that one fetched.
Conspiracy from right: AG Lynch trying to squash investigation to protect Hillary.
Score that one certain since multiple sources report it.
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The Issue
Finding more classified info doesn’t move the case forward.
So, Comey must think there’s either evidence of intent … or lying to the FBI.
Remember, it was the latter that put Scooter Libby in jail during the the Watergate fiasco.
Update: Huma told FBI that she had turned over all personal devices with the Hillary emails.
Oops.
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Likely outcome
Huma will get thrown under the bus (or, jump under the bus) and take the fall for mis-handling classified info … clear proof that she moved classified info to a non-secure system … and proof that she fibbed to the FBI.
That won’t close the investigation … don’t forget that a video emerged of Hillary lecturing State Department personnel that using personal email for State business is a violation of policy and a crime if there’s classified info. No number of “can’t recall” claims neutralize that one. She knew it was a crime and did it anyway. Comey can’t ignore that.
Hillary Clinton will be the first candidate to be elected President while under FBI investigation.
President Obama will pardon her on or about November 9 “for the good of the country”.
Keep in mind that Wiki revealed that Obama emailed Clinton on her private server address … sometimes using a Carlos-Danger-like alias. OK, maybe he didn’t notice the email address, but … using an alias? It’s in the President’s to pardon Hillary and stop the investigation.
When the pardon is issued, about half of the country will agree with Trump that the system is rigged.
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Another shoe to drop?
I’m still expecting WikiLeaks to drop a real show-stopper.
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You just can’t make this stuff up.
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WaPo: “Err, let’s call it 4 points, not 6”
October 28, 2016Update to this morning’s post …
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Hot off the Washington Post presses …
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P.S. Amazon misses earnings forecast … and warns that operating income may fall to zero.
Not a good day for Jeff Bezos ….
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WaPo: “Forget 12 points, maybe it’s only 6″
October 28, 2016Can a race change that much in 3 days?
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Earlier in the week, we tried to make sense of the WaPo-ABC poll that had Clinton leading by 12 … while IBD – the most accurate poll in 2012 had the race tied.
The 12 points just didn’t smell right.
Well, guess what?
WaPo-ABC is out with new poll results halving the Clinton lead to 6 points.
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So, what happened between Monday and Wednesday?
Not much as well as I can tell, except ….
WaPo-ABC juggled with their party weightings.
A couple of days ago, only 27% of likely voters were Republican … now it’s 29%.
That accounts for some (less than 2) of the 6 points.
The rest?
Can’t tell … they don’t report the details for voter preference by party, gender, race, etc.
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What are the other polls saying?
Psst: Did you catch what Trump said about Amazon?
October 27, 2016During the preamble to his Gettysburg Address …
Trump lashed out at his “accusers” and said he was going to sue them.
Said he’ wouldn’t allow the AT&T – Time Warner deal to get approved … because of a concentration of power.
Of course, his opposition was not because CNN is a part of the deal.
I haven’t seen press mentions of a 3rd Trump lash out …
More about the 12 point spread between WaPo and IBD polls ….
October 26, 2016Bottom line: The devil is indeed in the details.
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Let’s get really numbers geeky today ….
To satisfy, my curiosity, I dug a bit deeper into the 12 point difference between the recent Washington Post – ABC Poll (Clinton +12) and the historically accurate IBD poll (race tied).
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Avid Trump supporters claim that WaPo over-sampled Dems … boosting Hillary’s numbers.
Break that into 2 parts: (1) Did WaPo over-sample Dems? (2) More generally, does over-sampling matter?
First, let’s draw a distinction between “over-sampling” and “over-weighting”.
Over-sampling means surveying more people in a particular group than their proportionate share of the population.
Over-weighting is disproportionately counting folks in a particular group when compiling an overall total.
Specifically, IBD says that it polls Democrats, Republicans and Independents in roughly the same numbers.
In other words, they over-sample Republicans and Independents since more than 1/3 of likely voters are Democrats (or, so they say).
But, IBD corrects for the over-sampling by re-weighting based on population proportions derived by separate studies called “enumeration surveys”.
Specifically, the IBD poll weights Democrats 36%, Republicans 30% and Independents 34%, assuming that mix is representative of likely voter turnout.
Note: overall, headline total numbers are highly sensitive to these turnout assumptions. Since roughly 85% of folks typically vote for their party’s nominee, each point shift in the turnout assumptions changes the weighted average by almost a point. And, these turnout ratios are derived outside of surveys based on the enumeration studies and political analysis.
As near as I can tell, the WaPo turnout weightings are about the same as IBD’s … maybe a couple of points more skewing to the Dems … maybe accounting for 2 or 3 of the 12 points.
No big deal.
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Digging deeper is where things start to get really interesting.
Holy WikiLeaks: Team Clinton has been dinking with the polls …
October 25, 2016If you get all of your news from the MSM, you might have missed this one.
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As loyal readers know, I’ve been trying to figure out why there is such a wide range in poll results.
At the extremes, the Washington Post has Clinton up by 12 … and IBD – the most accurate poll in the last Presidential campaign – is calling the race a dead heat.
I can understand a couple of points of difference … but, a 12 point spread ????
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Well, courtesy of WikiLeaks, here’s a partial explanation…
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According to ZeroHedge.com …
One of the leaked emails reveals that Team Clinton had an active program in place to consult with pollsters in an effort to “manufacture” data in order to “maximize what we (the Clinton campaign) get out of our media polling.”
Note the key word: “media” … as in Washington Post, ABC, NBC, Huff Post … the usual band of suspects.
Specifically, they coached media pollster how to “oversample” certain groups that tend to be more favorable to Clinton:
Think: Democrats, minorities, urbanites, West Coasters, Native Americans, etc.
The purloined email even attaches a handy, 37-page guide with poll-rigging recommendations.
Check out the ZeroHedge.com article to see the email, the attachment, the names of the key players and, most important, an analysis of why this matters.
Bottom line: if a candidate gets a large share of a specific group and that group is over-sampled (say more Democrats), then the candidate’s poll results get a bump.
I can understand why a campaign would want to juice the numbers – to build supporters’ enthusiasm and to get opponents discouraged.
But, I don’t understand why the media outlets would put themselves out on such a public limb.
Eventually, the actual results will be known and any shenanigans will come out in the wash.
Maybe these guys don’t care.
A classic case of ends justifying the means I guess.
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Past performance is no guarantee for future performance, but …
October 24, 2016The most accurate polls in the 2012 election have the race tied.
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I’m really intrigued by the wide variance in polling results for this year’s election.
The most publicized polls – usually associated with MSM or university sponsors — have Hillary up by 5 or 6 points.
That feels about right to me.
But, there are a couple of outliers that have Trump either tied or marginally ahead.
Those polls are usually dismissed by the MSM as “unscientific” since they might not use “pure” random sampling or might not have a live call center person asking the questions or use some form of rolling sample technique (vs. a fresh start with each poll).
Rather than looking at methodologies – all of which have issues – I thought I’d look at past performance ….
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Nate Silver is the polling darling of the left – largely because he boldly predicted Obama’s win in 2008 – early, often and loud.
His FiveThirtyEight group did an analysis of pollster accuracy in the 2012 election.
Results are revealing …
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For starters, note that 4 of the top 7 pollsters – based on actual 2012 performance — use the much blasphemed internet polling methodology.
Pollsters using the RoboCall method (“press 1 for Hillary, 2 for Trump”) fared in the middle of the pack.
Traditional phone call surveys were sprinkled throughout the standings … and landed in 5 of the bottom 6 spots.
Also note that a couple of the most often reported “scientific” polls – Quinnipiac, Marist, Washington Post / ABC – are in the middle of the pack
Two of the current “outlier” polls – IBD and LA Times (nee. Rand Corp poll) were #1 and #4 in accuracy.
Hmmm.
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Let’s dig a bit deeper …
What’s Nate Silver saying about the election?
October 23, 2016Answer: Not looking good for the Trumpster.
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Nate Silver is the left-leaning pollster who made his mark being early, often and loud predicting Obama’s 2008 victory.
These days, he’s saying that Hillary has an 87% of winning the election … based on an average of polls tracked and massaged by his FiveThirtyEight group.
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More specifically, Silver says that there’s a:
- 2 in 3 chance that Clinton wins by the same margin as Obama did … or better
- 1 in 3 chance that Clinton wins in a blow-out
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Looks pretty bleak for The Donald based on Silvers recap.
But … tomorrow, we’ll use some of Silver’s own numbers to paint a different picture of the race.
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DNC chair hits the the economy nail on the head …
October 22, 2016Despair: Only adding low wage jobs … rent half of what people make.
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Courtesy of Donna Brazile (via WikiLeaks) …
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Couldn’t have said it better myself …
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Proof: Foreigners are disrupting the election process …
October 21, 2016Psst: It’s not the Russians
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Let’s start with a couple of caveats and disclaimers:
1. Breitbart is real far right … very pro-Trump.
2. This isn’t a “scientific” analysis
3. This certainly doesn’t answer the question: who won the debate.
That said, I thought this was pretty interesting.
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Most overnight “click polls” had Trump winning the first 2 debates.
So, a cottage industry developed to trash those polls as “unscientific”.
Now that didn’t stop CNN from gleefully reporting “even far-right website Breitbart’s overnight poll had Hillary Clinton winning the final presidential debate by 6 percentage points”.
Kudos to Breitbart for reporting the numbers; shame-shame to CNN for reversing course legitimizing click-polls.
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Well, Breitbart dug into the numbers to figure out what was going on.
Here’s what they found …..
About the “accept results” dust-up …
October 21, 2016OK, Trump made a tactical mistake by being bluntly truthful on the question: “Will you commit today to accept the results of the election?”
He should have said: “Sure, just like Gore in 2000. Once all the related legal processes are settled and the results are certified, I’ll abide by the election results.”
But, he didn’t … so, Dems and the MSM got challenge his patriotism, commitment to the Constitution, blah-blah-blah.
Sample, the Atlantic:
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Too bad, because it would have been great to have had coverage of the other big issues that surfaced during the debate: open borders, free trade, 2nd amendment, tax & spend, pay-to- play, tiered justice system, religious freedom, partial-birth abortion, etc.
The best part of the debate (my opinion) was that Chris Wallace got Trump & Clinton to stake out their positions on most of those issues.
Of course, there was bobbing & weaving, but the sharp contrasts in positions were laid out.
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Now, back to the concession dust-up ….
ObamaCare has bent the cost curve …
October 20, 2016Unfortunately, it has bent it up, not down.
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Hillary’s lucky that the MSM is burying ObamaCare coverage, so she can continue to tout it as a resounding success.
Remember how ObamaCare was going to save each family $2,500?
Well, turns out to be just the opposite.
According to Federal Reserve data, once the full program kicked in, real personal healthcare expenditures — the “net total” of insurance premiums, deductibles and other out-of pocket spending, adjusted for inflation — has turned up, not down.
Her are some details …
If everything is going so good …
October 19, 2016… then why are so few folks satisfied with the way things are going?
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OK, Obama inherited a mess from Bush.
According to Gallup:
Under Bush, “satisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S.” dropped from the high-60s that Clinton handed over to him.
When he left office satisfaction was generally in the low 20s … a big drop.
No problem.
Prior Presidents got things back on track.
Reagan pulled us out of the Carter malaise … and Clinton turned things around after Bush, Sr.
Obama promised to usher in an era of hope & change, right?
How has that worked out?
Fine if you listen to him … or Hillary on the stump.
But, fact is, he didn’t move the needle much … a couple of points, at best.
So, tell me again, why are so many folks argue that we should stay the course?
Has dissatisfaction become the new normal?
As one candidate would say, “What the hell do you have to lose?”
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What do Americans fear the most?
October 18, 2016The answer may surprise you and, for sure, presents an ironic twist.
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Chapman University does an annual survey of Americans’ fears
Here’s some quick background ….
The study queries on 11 “Domains of Fear”:
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The study deep dives into specific fears within each domain:
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OK, make your pick from the above list.
What do Americans fear the most?
Will Hillary post for the 3rd debate?
October 17, 2016Here are some debate predictions prompted by Axelrod’s tweet .
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Late last week, Trump opined that both candidates should be drug tested before Wednesday’s debate … ostensibly, to make sure that Hillary’s not being propped up by chemical additives.
David Axlerod – Obama’s chief political strategist – countered with idea that Hillary should scratch from the debate card.
I don’t know which is the wilder idea: drug testing or scratching?
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At least the latter started me thinking …
What does Hillary have to gain by showing up … or not?
If she doesn’t show up, rumors will immediately surface that she has another bout of pneumonia … or worse.
Hmmm.
Or, all but the MSM will pound her: “How can we expect you to stand up to Putin if you can’t stand up to Trump … and Fox’s Chris Wallace?”
Double hmmm.
Advantage to to showing up.
But wait …
Let’s add one more piece and then connect the dots.
Which poll was most accurate in the 2012 Presidential race?
October 17, 2016The answer may surprise you … and, give some of you heartburn.
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The most reported polling result is probably the RealClearPolitics poll-of-polls … the average across the hal-dozen or so polls that RCP deems to be the most credible.
In 2012, the RCP average just before the election – the purple line below — pegged Obama’s lead at about 1 point.
Obama ended up winning by about 4 points.
That’s a pretty big miss.
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The poll that came the closest according to RCP was the Rand Poll … the aqua line above.
Rand had Obama as a 3 point favorite … within a point of the final tally.
So, how come we’re not hearing about the Rand poll these days?
Forget the polls … watch the ratings.
October 16, 2016News isn’t good for the Donald.
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The headline reads:
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That’s what the numbers say, but I don’t think that it’s the big story….
The Last Acceptable Prejudice …
October 14, 2016One of this week’s WiliLeaks certainly caught my attention:
Clinton’s senior staffers exchanged several emails that mocked the Catholic church, referring to it as a Middle Ages dictatorship”.
Hmmm.
Raises a couple of questions.
First, do they think that this guy a “Middle Ages Dictator”?
Seriously, the most liberal Pontiff in the history of the Catholic Church?
OK, he still preaches that partial births abortions are a no-no … but, on most issues, he has moved the Church towards most planks of the Progressive platform.
I thought they’d love the guy.
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Bigger question: if Islamaohobia is bad, how can Catholiphobia be OK?
In fact, no just OK, it’s socially fashionable.
I guess that isn’t really a surprise.
Many authors have referred to Catholicism as “the last acceptable prejudice”.
Not OK to raise your eyebrow at Jihadists who cut off people heads.
But, OK to trash Neanderthals who think that lives are sacred.
Go figure.
Only consolation for Catholics is that Team Clinton says that Evangelicals are even lower on the food chain.
Somehow, that doesn’t make me feel better,
Wonder what the priests will say at masses this Sunday.
My bet: it’ll be swept under the altar’s rug.
We’ll see.
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Score higher on the SATs … GUARANTEED!
October 13, 2016Just make sure that your parents went to college.
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The College Board has just released it’s “Total Group Profile Report” for 2016 college-bound seniors …
One set of numbers caught my eye:
SAT scores by the student’s parents level of educational attainment.
Note that about 2/3’s of the college-bound seniors taking the SAT came from homes with a degreed parent – either associate, bachelor or graduate.
Only about 1/3 came from homes with parents having only a high school education or less.
And, the performance differentials are substantial between the groups …
Some “interesting” SAT results …
October 12, 2016The College Board has just released it’s “Total Group Profile Report” for 2016 college-bound seniors.
A couple of sets of numbers caught my eye ….
Let’s start with math scores/
Two big takeaways:
(1) The gap between boys and girls narrowed from the 40 point difference in the 1970s to about 25 points … but has remained fairly constant at that level for about the past 20 years
(2) Scores for both boys and girls have been falling for the past dozen years or so.
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OK, boys outscore girls in math, but girls do better on the verbal part of the SATs, right?
Who is Dr. John Gruber?
October 11, 2016Trump referenced him in the debate as an ObamaCare architect.
Why the shout out?
Let’s flashback to a November 2014 post ….
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Even if you believe that “the end justifies the means”, this has gotta make your skin crawl.
Some background: Prof. Jonathan Gruber is an MIT economist who helped on RomneyCare in Massachusetts and was one of the primary architects of ObamaCare.
He was caught on video speaking quite frankly about the crafting of ObamaCare.
His basic message:
“The bill was written in a tortured way … to be sure that the CBO didn’t score the mandate as a tax … otherwise the bill would die … so, it was written to do that.
With regards to the subsides … if people figured out that healthy pay in to give sick people money, it wouldn’t have passed … lack of transparency is a huge political advantage.
Basically, call it the stupidity of the American voter or what … that was critical to getting the bill to pass … yeah, it would be better to be transparent, but I’d rather have this law than not.”
Watch the video … it’s even more chilling to hear Prof. Gruber say the words: Obfuscate and bank on American stupidity.
How do these guys sleep at night?
P.S. Another Gruber video will get wide play in the next couple of months.
He’s on tape saying that the specific language in the bill that only provided subsidies for folks going through state exchanges was intentional to motivate states to build exchanges,
Now, ObamaCare supporters are claiming it was just a typo that didn’t represent intent.
Well, the Supreme Court has signed on to settle the matter … with life & death consequence for ObamaCare.
This is gonna get interesting …
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Game on: Debate shines a light on another disgusting tape.
October 10, 2016This one has been hiding in plain sight for a long time.
I’d been wondering why this tape has largely gone unnoticed by folks.
Maybe, because it’s damning to Hillary, not Donald?
Well, it’s likely to get noticed now.
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In one of his tirades about Clintonian women abuse, Trump landed a body blow:
“One of the women, who is a wonderful woman, at 12 years old, was raped at 12,” Trump said. “Her client she (Clinton) represented got him off, and she’s heard laughing (on tape) on two separate occasions, laughing at the girl who was raped.”
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According to the Washington Post …
The attack on Clinton has less to do with the fact that she defended an accused rapist and more to do with how she did it and what she said about the case later
Specifically, it focuses on her efforts to attack the girl’s credibility and allegations that she spoke callously about getting the man a reduced charge, despite appearing to suggest he had been guilty.
The attack plays into twin allegations about Clinton’s character:
1) That she lacks a moral compass and will do whatever is advantageous to her, and
2) That she’s a hypocrite who says one thing today about sexual assault but did the opposite decades ago.
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Here are few more snippets from the Washington Post’s recap of the story …
Flashback: A debate so civil that people felt good about both candidates.
October 7, 2016Of course, we’re not talking about Clinton-Trump or Pence-Kaine …
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Every time that I watch one of these current day mud-slings, I think retro to the good old days when 2 contending candidates could share a stage, explain their contrasting positions so clearly that voters had a basis for choosing, and leave the stage as friends – just like they were when they walked in.
The year was 2000 and it was the Vice Presidential debate: Joe Lieberman and Dick Cheney.
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The nation was ideologically divided … maybe not a divisively as today … but, there were stark contrasts in positions.
Still the men were willing and able to conduct themselves as statesmen …
VP Debate: Déjà vu all over again …
October 6, 2016Anybody remember Biden vs. Ryan?
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As I was watching Tim Kaine make a butt of himself Tuesday night, a little voice was asking “Haven’t I seen this before?”
Answer: you bet … 4 years ago when sitting VP Biden went at it with Paul Ryan.
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Apparently, Biden is Kaine’s role model ….
Flashback: Wish Pence & Kaine were top-of-tickets …
October 5, 2016After the debate, it seems appropriate to reprise an old post.
First, he original post from July … then, some debate snippets.
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Both seem rational & hard-working with some degree of moderation … history of working across the aisle.
Sure, they’re boring … and my favorite (Pence) would probably lose … but I’d sure feel better about the election.
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Let’s update that a bit …
Flashback: Buffett says”increase taxes on estates (since mine is sheltered)”
October 4, 2016OK, he really didn’t say the last part … I added that nugget.
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The NYT dust-up on Trump’s tax loss carryforward reminded me that Hillary is proposing to jack-up the estate taxes on fat cats.
Of course, her favorite billionaire — Warren “I’m with her” Buffet — won’t be subject to the higher estate tax rates.
Why not?
Let’s flashback to my long ago proposed “Buffett Rule” … designed to get fat cats like him to stop whining about their too low taxes and pay their fair share.
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According to CNBC, Warren Buffett is one of several dozen wealthy people who have signed a statement calling for a “strong tax on large estates.”
Buffett & friends say:
- “Dynastic wealth, the enemy of a meritocracy, is on the rise. Equality of opportunity has been on the decline. A progressive and meaningful estate tax is needed to curb the movement of a democracy toward a plutocracy.”
- We (the wealthy) have “benefited significantly” by government investments in schools, infrastructure. and public safety, among other things, so it is “right morally and economically” to have a “significant” tax on large estates because it “promotes democracy by slowing the concentration of wealth and power.”
- “It is right to have a significant tax on large estates when they are passed on to the next generation … it is right morally and economically, since an estate tax promotes democracy by slowing the concentration of wealth and power.”
OK, so what constitutes a sizable estate and how much of it should the government take?
Is Hillary’s bump from the debates or Aleppo ?
October 3, 2016This stuck me as interesting …
Trump had a bad week … bombing the debate and chasing Miss Piggy around.
And, apparently, Hillary got a post-debate bump.
Note: The “apparently” … LA Times survey still has Trump up … and there has been a curious lack of so-called “scientific polls released since the debate. Hmmm.
Let’s cut numbers a slightly different way ….
Over the past week or so, Clinto has gained about 2 points in the 4-way polls.
During that same period, Johnson & Stein have fallen from a combined 12% to under 10%.
That’s roughly 2 points, right?
Hmmm.
Also during that time, Johnson plead the 5th on Aleppo and had trouble naming a world leader – any world leader.
Could Hillary’s gain be more Aleppo than the debates?
Counterintuitive, but maybe the debates didn’t really change the landscape very much.
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NY Times Bombshell: Trump had a tax loss carryforward … disqualifying?
October 3, 2016P.S. Hillary had one, too (but the NYT missed that one).
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This would be laughable except it will probably gain more traction with the MSM than Miss Piggy.
Here’s the “smoking gun”:
The New York Times obtained records from 1995 showing that Donald J. Trump declared a $916 million loss.
The figure is so substantial that it could have allowed him to legally avoid paying federal income tax for 18 years.
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Let’s unpack this journalistic gem …
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