Archive for January, 2013

JCP: deals or no deals?

January 31, 2013

Answer: deals.

Earlier this week we posted that JCP CEO Ron Johnson insisted at an investor conference that Penney’s “marketing is really starting to connect” with customers … and that in 2013, Penney will become “a happening place.”

That was 2 days ago.  Then yesterday …

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According to USA Today: CEO Ron Johnson announced a strategic evolution to its plan to offer everyday low prices that customers could count on rather than the nearly 600 fleeting discounts, coupons and sales events each year.

What sort of “strategic evolution”?

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Chicago murders: Where’s the outrage?

January 30, 2013

Here are some interesting nums …

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According to the Chicago Police Department

Chicago had 513 murders in 2012 … about average for the past 5 years …  but – on the bright side – only about half the number common 20 years ago.

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Though  murder rates were even higher 20 years ago, police “cleared” more two-thirds of Chicago’s homicides then, i.e. arrested & prosecuted somebody.

The clearance rate has dropped below 1 in 3 … largely due to “no snitch” rules of the street.

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Dopes: A-Rod on juice; Ray Lewis on deer spray … say, what?

January 30, 2013

OK, let’s start with the garden variety doping allegation.

Several news sources reported that Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees was “ensnared in a doping investigation once again when an alternative weekly newspaper reported baseball’s highest-paid star was among a half-dozen players listed in records of a Florida clinic the paper said sold performance-enhancing drugs.”

Technical question: What the heck is an “alternative weekly newspaper”?  What is it an alternative to?

The Miami New Times said the three-time AL MVP bought human growth hormone and other performance-enhancing substances during 2009-12 from Biogenesis of America LLC, a now-closed anti-aging clinic in Coral Cables near Rodriguez’s offseason home.

Another technical question: What the heck is an “anti-aging” clinic?  Glad to see it closed.

The New York Yankees third baseman issued a statement denying the allegations.

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Now let’s move to the jaw-dropper: Raven’s LB Ray Lewis Accused of Using Performance Enhancing Deer Spray.

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Econ: Better to be accredited and wrong … or not accredited and right?

January 30, 2013

First. my stake in the game: I consider myself an economist … at heart and by schooling … majored in econ … grad work in applied econ … worked for awhile doing econometrics.

Econ still permeates my marketing strategy work.

So, I was naturally drawn by an article in the UK Independent:

“Fraudster  fools a whole nation: Portuguese economics pundit exposed as conman.”

Just looking at this dude has gotta set off some alarm bells …

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Here’s the story and my take on the question ….

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Bias: How you do depends on who interviewed before you …

January 29, 2013

According to the HBR Daily Stat …

MBA applicants may be at a disadvantage if they interview on a day when several others have already received positive evaluations

Specifically, the 4th Great MBA applicant interviewed on a given day Is less likely to get a high interview score

 

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Study results and what to do about them …

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Cats-to-Go: "That little ball of fluff you own is a natural born killer"

January 29, 2013

Strong language, eh?

This caught my eye because I’ve never been a cat fancier,

We had one for over 20 years.

When my sons asked for a cat, I said ok.

Nobody told me it would be hanging around for 2 decades.

The cat was so nasty that it used to pounce on and bite my mother-in-law … one of the most serene ladies the lord ever put on this planet.

That’s nasty.

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I guess I’m not the only cat non=lover.

A New Zealand environmental advocate launched a campaign to ban cats as pets entirely!

Why?

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JCP: Yeah, but where are the deals?

January 29, 2013

Despite dramatic reform and an attempted ‘retail revolution’, JCPenney has yet to make inroads with shoppers.

Will new in-store boutiques and a greater ‘connection with customers’ be enough for a turnaround?

54266-jcp-Womens-Shop-at-jcpenney-showcases-new-private-label-brand-dedicated-to-high-quality-fashion-basics-original

According to BrandChannel  

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Politics: Red, blue or green (as in money)?

January 29, 2013

When Obama was elected in November 2008, GE CEO Jeff Imment told his troops: “We’re all Democrats now”.

It wasn’t a political statement as much as a practical business reality.

Now, Forbes is asking “Are Apple, Whole Foods and Google Democrats or Republicans?”

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Forbes’ central thesis:

Welcome, in short, to a new, neutral … U.S. corporate environment — thanks in no small part to the increasingly polarized politics of this country.

“Companies know if they align too much with one party or political view they will alienate one half of the buying public.”

Companies might lean Red or Blue in politics but in the end the only color that really counts is green.

Here are Forbes’ poster children of the new neutral …

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Buzz: Which brand generates the most?

January 28, 2013

According to the YouGov Brand Index annual survey, the winner is …

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YouGov BrandIndex’s Buzz score asks respondents:  “Have you heard anything about the brand in the last two weeks, through advertising, news or word of mouth?”

That’s a pretty wide net – can be positive or negative – but, it is certainly a measure of “buzz”.

Here are the rest of the Top 25 … many surprises …

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$$$: How much do MBAs make right out of school?

January 28, 2013

Answer: It depends on a person’s “major” (i.e. finance folks tend to make more), their background before MBA school, and the b-school they attend.

According to NerdWallet, the average MBA student will earn $113,730 straight out of graduation, which includes a signing bonus of $18,764.

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Stanford University leads with an average total compensation of $146,677.

Check out Nerdwallet’s Top 20 List … and rejoice, MSB is on it !

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Outta Here: Tina Turner bolts for Switzerland.

January 26, 2013

Last week it was Phil Mickelson … the pro golfer said he was considering relocation options to mitigate high tax rates.

Phil – a white, conservative, male – got blasted by the liberal press for his apparent unwillingness to be patriotic and pay his fair share.

Yesterday, the story got more interesting.

Rock icon Tina Turner announced that she’s renouncing her U.S. citizenship to become a Swiss-miss.

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As you may know – or can see above – Tina is not a white, conservative, male.

So the press coverage has been, shall we say, “gentle”.

To that point …

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Weather: Make it, don’t just report it.

January 25, 2013

A CEO I worked for used to oft say “ I pay you to make the weather, not just report it.”

I thought it was a clever line … and use it in class … to raise the old expectation’s bar.

Well, apparently former Mexican President, Felipe Calderon and his buddies at Davos heard the same admonition.

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According to sources, the Davos leaders are calling for an unprecedented investment of $14 trillion to green the global economy, to stop climate change and to preempt hurricanes.

Here’s more …

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Prices: How much for a bottle of Two-Buck Chuck?

January 25, 2013

In California, Two-Buck Chuck has been upchucked … from $1.99 to $2.49.

Is nothing sacred?

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Here’s what’s behind the end-of-an-era pricing move …

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Nums: Don’t ban assault rifles … ban hammers!

January 25, 2013

First, a couple of disclaimers: (1) I don’t own a gun, I’ve never fired a gun … and I don’t plan to do either in my lifetime (2) I’m pro-Constitution, so I hate it when Constitutional rights are stripped away … that’s a very slippery slope  (3) So, despite my personal aversion to guns, I’m not big on infringing other people’s right to own them (4) I love kids and I lived in Trumbull, CT … just down Rt.25 from Newtown … so, I took the school killings hard.

OK, with that out of the way, let’s look at the numbers to see how silly the DC debate has gotten.

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Practically all of the political effort is on banning law abiders from owning assault rifles and high capacity ammunition clips.

Below is some FBI data that may surprise you …

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Motivation: A compelling reason to shed some pounds …

January 24, 2013

A study reported by EurekAlert! – a science society — concludes that obese drivers are much more likely to die in car crashes than normal weight drivers.

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Here’s the skinny on the study …

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Marketing ROI: What you get for $300 million … and for $10.

January 24, 2013

According to George Parker of  AdScam ….

At a conference a couple of years ago. GE and their agency, BBDO, made a presentation of their new “Imagination” campaign.

After showing some nice TV spots and explaining that they’d spent $300 million on media over the last year, they proudly declared that brand awareness had increased substantially.

This generated polite applause.

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Next up was the Marketing Director of blender manufacturer Blendtec who proceeded to blend:

  • a brick
  • some ball bearings
  • an 8 ft garden rake
  • a Blackberry donated by a member of the audience

He then put up a single slide showing that every time they posted a self-produced, ten dollar video on YouTube in their long-running “Will It Blend” campaign (which to-date has had more than 220 million views,) sales went up by an accurately measurable percentage.

Understandably, the crowd went nuts.  

The point being, GE spent hundreds of millions and couldn’t quantify with any certainty what they had achieved for all that money.

Blendtec spent pennies and achieved consistently significant and measurable results.

Below are links to a couple of the Blendtec videos …  worth watching.

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Nums: Did more people watch Obama’s 2nd inauguration or Bush’s?

January 23, 2013

Of course, I wouldn’t be asking if the answer was Obama’s.

According to Gallup, 38% watched Obama get crowned on Monday (a national holiday) … back in 2005, 40% watched W. take the oath (on a regular workday Thursday).

Hmmm.

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It gets better …

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Gotcha: Using your own genes against you …

January 23, 2013

 NPR says …

“Getting the results of a genetic test can be a bit like opening Pandora’s box … you might learn that you’re likely to develop an incurable disease later on in life.”

There’s a federal law that’s supposed to protect people from having their own genes used against them, the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act, or GINA.

Under GINA, it’s illegal for health insurers to raise rates or to deny coverage because of someone’s genetic code.

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But the law has a loophole: It only applies to health insurance.

Some insurance can be denied or priced high because of a person’s DNA.

Here’s an example … and a prediction.

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Jobs: Get the %$#&@ off your resume…

January 23, 2013

Punch line: We can all agree that every word of your resume should be relevant, well-stated and interesting.

Leaving a few key things off will allow recruiters to easily check off their list of qualifications and get a sense of who you are.

 

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Here’s what to leave off …

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Gotcha: How long is a Subway footlong?

January 22, 2013

Forget Nenghazi … here’s a scandal for you.

According to the UK Telegraph

An Australian teenager measured his Subway “foot-long” sub and find it was an inch short.

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The picture-is-worth-a-thousand words is buzzing the internet.

Subway’s  corporate responses (two of them) are classics …

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Nums: Are there more singles or married people?

January 22, 2013

Answer: Married folks … but not by much and the curves are soon to cross,

At the end of 2012, singles accounted for a record 49.6% of the population aged 16 years or older.

That’s up from 37.6% at the end of 1976.

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Source

Here are some more nums and the ‘so whats’ …

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Uh-oh: College enrollments (and tuition revenues) declining …

January 22, 2013

According to the NY Times,  a growing number of colleges and universities are facing declining enrollment … and less revenue from tuition.

CollegeProtest

Here are some facts …

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Education: Does preschool matter?

January 21, 2013

Interesting article in Slate: The Early Education Racket … poses the question does preschool really matter

Research suggests that if you have the time and money to argue over the merits of different preschools and their philosophies, your kid isn’t going to suffer either way since upper-middle-class parents “tend to be choosing between all very good options

In fact, he/she probably doesn’t need to go to preschool at all.

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Here’s what the research says …

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Axe: Wanna be a chick-magnet-astronaut ?

January 21, 2013

Punch line: Taking a page from Red Bull’s book, Axe launches a ‘Space Academy’ campaign, with a contest that sends winners on a space ship to the moon.

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Excerpted from brandchannel.com’s, “Super Bowl Ad Watch: Axe Challenges Red Bull With Space Mission”

Axe has made its reputation with edgy advertising that makes no bones about why it believes young men should use it — to attract women to them as if they’re sexually magnetized.

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Now, the Unilever brand is pushing the envelope just a bit more in two ways: …

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Nums: O drops below the Mendoza line …

January 19, 2013

After raising taxes on the rich … and, oh yeah, the not rich

… and after 23 executive orders signed with kiddies as the backdrop

… and, just in time for the inauguration ,,,

Gallup reports that President Obama’s approval rating has dropped to 49%

… which is , as you know, less than his oft cited election “mandate”.

Hmmm.  Wonder if the mainstream press will report it?

I’m betting the under.

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Follow on Twitter @KenHoma             >> Latest Posts

Happy Birthday from Facebook and your lazy friend …

January 18, 2013

Punch line: Facebook takes a crack at monetizing the site for retailers, adding a ‘Gifts’ feature that allows users to purchase and send an actual gift to friends. 

Facebook uses that friend’s profile to suggest gifts based on their interests and ‘likes.’ 

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Excerpted from Adweek.com’ “Facebook Unwraps Gift Products”

Remember when giving someone a gift on Facebook was like sending them a really intricate emoticon?

Yeah, people stopped doing that, and so did Facebook.

Now the social network is hoping people will start sending each other actual gifts.

Here’s how FB plans to do it …

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Does playing basketball make you taller?

January 18, 2013

Of course not … that’s silly.

OK let’s try a variant of the question: Does education make you smarter?

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I bet a lot of you would bet the over on that one.

Here’s what the researchers say …

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Pssst: Wanna buy a dissertation?

January 18, 2013

Here’s an academic shocker: Researchers found that many Russian doctoral students purchase their dissertations

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Here are the facts.

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Ouch: Dreamliners grounded … lithium battery concerns.

January 17, 2013

According to Reuters

The FAA has grounded Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner passenger jets while battery-related problems are investigated.

The plane has been plagued by recent electrical problems – raising concerns over its use of lithium-ion batteries.

Engineers and regulators are making checks – primarily to the plane’s batteries and complex electronics systems.

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Here’s my take on the situation ….

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Gotcha: Your willingness-to-pay is showing …

January 17, 2013

Punch line: Major retailers are customizing online prices for each user, using users’ information (such as location) to determine different prices for identical items. The goal”higher price realization and higher profits.

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Excerpted from WSJ’s, “Websites Vary Prices, Deals Based On Users’ Information”

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It was the same Swingline stapler, on the same Staples.com website.

But for Kim Wamble, the price was $15.79, while the price on Trude Frizzell’s screen, just a few miles away, was $14.29. 

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Getting financial houses in order … and not.

January 16, 2013

Here are a couple of charts that put things in perspective

Ask yourself: Which one doesn’t isn’t like the others?

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Consumers have been deleveraging.

The ratio of mortgage debt to disposable income has retreated by 20 percentage points and continues to fall.

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More broadly, the percentage of disposable income servicing household debt is at a historic low …

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Scales of justice: “You’re fat so you’re guilty, lady”

January 16, 2013

According to Slate: Male jurors are more likely to find fat women guilty.

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A team of Yale psychologists released a study indicating that male jurors were more likely to hand a guilty verdict to obese women than to slender women.

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Econ: How much of consumers’ assets are in their home?

January 16, 2013

About 29% according to JP Morgan Wealth Management …

I expected the number to be much higher

Financial assets are more than half.

Material “stuff” such as autos is less than 10%

In nominal terms, the aggregate consumer balance sheet has just about fought its way back to pre-crash levels.

So, why does it feel so bad?

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Source

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Follow on Twitter @KenHoma             >> Latest Posts

For Sale: Treadmill … Coke says to laugh off the calories …

January 16, 2013

Punch line: Coca-Cola is defending itself with a new TV Campaign that  focuses on the health benefits of Coca-Cola’s products. 

Say, what?

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Excerpted from brandchannel.com’s, “Coca-Cola Addresses Obesity Critics With U.S. TV Campaign”

The Coca-Cola Company on Monday evening began airing a two-minute spot on U.S. cable news networks.

The subject, in a first for the company: America’s obesity debate, in a bid to defend its brands ahead of looming beverage size controls.

Coca-Cola Coming Together Video

The world’s biggest beverage company debuted the “Coming Together” commercial in hopes of flexing its marketing muscle in the debate over sodas and their impact on public health.

The theme ties into the company’s “Live Positively” and “Open Happiness” campaigns.

Another ad, which will run later this week during American Idol and before the Super Bowl, is much more reminiscent of the catchy, upbeat advertising people have come to expect from Coca-Cola.

It features a montage of activities that add up to burning off the ‘140 happy calories’ in a can of Coke: walking a dog, dancing, sharing a laugh with friends and doing a victory dance after bowling a strike.

The ads are intended to address “confusion” about the number of calories in soda.

Hmm.

Think “sharing a laugh with friends” can really burn off 140 calories?

Beats the old treadmill, for sure.

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Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

World View: Americans eat Chinese food, and the Chinese eat ..

January 15, 2013

You guessed it, Kentucky Fried Chicken.

Yum has been one of the most successful foreign companies in China.

Yum has more than 4,000 KFC outlets and more than 700 Pizza Huts.

Yum gets about 50% of its revenue from China.

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Nice to see the Chinese adopting a wholesome American diet …

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Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

$$$: The Federal budget on the head of a pin …

January 15, 2013

Nice recap courtesy of JP Morgan Wealth Management …

Easy facts to remember:

  • Feds take in about $2.5 trillion in taxes
  • Deficit is just over $1.1 trillion
  • Spending is over $3.6 trillion

Note that Social Security & Medicare spending is about twice what’s taken in via “Social Insurance” … aka. “payroll taxes”.

Also note how big that dashed Borrowing box is.

We don’t have a spending problem.

Yeah, right.

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Chart Tip: Being picky, but they should have put Social Insurance at the bottom of the sources’ stack so that it lined up with Social Security and Medicare.

Every list should have a logical order … and that order is rarely the order that you thought of things.

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Follow on Twitter @KenHoma           >> Latest Posts

Innovation: Gimme a bag of soup …

January 15, 2013

Excerpted from “Kicking The Can: Campbell’s CEO Bets On Soup-In-A-Bag For 20-Somethings”

Denise Morrison, Campbell’s new CEO, is determined to shake things up.

She was hired to stabilize the soup and simple meals businesses, expand internationally, grow faster in healthy beverages and baked snacks.

Dubbed “the savior of soup”, she’s driven Campbell’s innovators to launch more than 50 new products in her 1st year.

For example, Campbell’s launched Go Soups, a six-flavor line in plastic pouches meant to convey freshness while capturing millennials’ adventurous tastes.

campbells soup in a bag

Ken’s Take:

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Warning: Before you click the 1040 eFile button …

January 14, 2013

This one strikes close to home.

Article in this morning’s WSJ E-Filing and the Explosion in Tax-Return Fraud

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Over 80% of individual returns were e-filed last year.

As a direct result:

  • Tax fraud is now the third-largest theft of federal funds after Medicare/Medicaid and unemployment-insurance fraud.
  • Tax-identity theft exploded to more than 1.1 million cases from 51,700 in 2008.
  • Last summer, the Treasury “discovered” an additional 1.5 million potentially fraudulent 2011 tax refunds totaling in excess of $5.2 billion.
  • The IRS has a backlog of 650,000 identity theft cases, and it usually takes over a year to resolve each of them

Here’s why I don’t just shrug off those stats.

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My imagination, or did my middle class paycheck get smaller?

January 14, 2013

Even the lowest information voters should have realized by now that their paychecks have shrunk by 2% …  since the Feds didn’t renew the 2% payroll tax holiday.

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The big question for the economy as 2013 gets underway is how America will react to their smaller paychecks.

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Patagonia: “Don’t buy our stuff” … say, what?

January 14, 2013

Punch line: Cloaked in green, Patagonia’s proposition — that you not buy its clothes — is resulting in some of its best sales ever.

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Excerpted from Fast Company’s, “How Patagonia Makes More Money By Trying To Make Less”

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Instead of blasting sales prices and urging consumers to load up their virtual shopping carts, Patagonia encourages consumers to buy less.

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Price War: Targeting online retailers

January 11, 2013

Target is sick & tiered of being “showroomed”.

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According to USA Today

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When was the last time DC had a “real” snowstorm?

January 11, 2013

First, a definition: anything less than 2 inches doesn’t count as a “real” snow event …

According to the Wash Post, the frequency of 2” snow storms per year has been steadily declining.

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And, the answer to the question …

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Travel time: Remember when it took 6 weeks to go from Chicago to NYC?

January 10, 2013

Trick question.

Of course not.  None of us were around in 1800 .

Cool chart below from FlowingData.com …. reporting Census Bureau data massaged by researchers at the Univ. of Nebraska.

With NYC pegged as the destination, the isolines show how long it took to get from wherever to NYC.

Chicago is on the 6-week isoline.

Ouch.

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The bigger question: why did it take so damn long?

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Promo: Is that burger grease on your book?

January 10, 2013

Here’s a promotion that’s likely to cause some commotion.

click pic to view video
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The Telegraph reports that McDonald’s is about to become UK’s largest book distributor.

Say, what?

Yep.

Here are the details …

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Economy: Rays of optimism…

January 10, 2013

As loyal readers know, I’m a bear on the economy and the stock market.

That said, there are some indications that the economy’s water level is slowly rising … as evidenced in light vehicle sales (cars and small trucks) and housing starts.

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Source: JP Morgan Wealth Management

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So, why my pessimism?

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Gotcha: Here are the nasty 13 tax increases …

January 9, 2013

Here’s a great recap prepped by the Heritage Foundation with links to deeper details …

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Key takeaways:

  • Everybody is getting nicked … either directly or indirectly … not just the wealth-mongering 2%.
  • Biggest impact is elimination of the payroll tax holiday … which hurts the middle class the most

Read ‘em and weep …

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Gridlock: Why I missed the Hoya’s game

January 9, 2013

Georgetown was gridlocked yesterday.

A troubled dude was threatening to jump from the Key Bridge, so police shut down the bridge, M Street and many of the area’s side streets.

Virtually impossible to get out of G-town heading to the Verizon Center … or any place else.

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Source

Couple of thoughts:

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$$$: How much is a degree worth?

January 9, 2013

Answer: About a million bucks.

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Here’s the data …

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Financial math: Capital gains tax rates are going up 8.8% … So, how much will after-tax capital gains go down?

January 8, 2013

This is a relatively simple financial math question that most people I’ve asked have gotten wrong.

Answers have ranged from less than 8.8% – since only capital gains are being taxed (huh?) … 8.8% – because that’s how much the marginal rate is going up … to more than 8.8% – “otherwise you wouldn’t be asking the question”.

First, what’s magic about 8.8%?

Well, Obama did what he promised and jacked capital gains tax rates from 15% to 20% … and, don’t forget ObamaCare has a 3.8% non-payroll payroll tax on investment income starting in 2013.

So,  the effective capital gains tax rate is going from 15% to 23.8% … a delta of 8.8%.

That 8.8% increase will cut after-tax capital gains by 10.35% !

If you don’t believe me, here’s he math …

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Bid & Ask: Are new graduates ready for prime time?

January 8, 2013

Just read an interesting McKinsey study: Education to Employment – Designing a System that Works.

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The focus of the study:

Worldwide, young people are three times more likely than their parents to be out of work.

Paradoxically, there is a critical skills shortage at the same time.

In other words, there are two related global crises: high levels of youth unemployment and a shortage of people with critical job skills.

This report focuses on skill development, with special attention to the mechanisms that connect education to employment.

More specifically:

  • Seventy-five million youth are unemployed
  • Half of youth are not sure that their postsecondary education has improved their chances of finding a job
  • Almost 40 percent of employers say a lack of skills is the main reason for entry-level vacancies

An obvious conclusion: employers need to work with education providers so that students learn the skills they need to succeed at work

The pivotal finding: Employers, education providers, and youth live in parallel universes.

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