The Homa Files

What do American cheese, cereal and golf have in common?

May 30, 2020

Hint: The coronaviris is changing consumer behavior
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Let’s start with a confession…

Several years ago — Oct. 2006 to be precise –our family travelled to Hawaii for a friend’s wedding.

As luck would have it, an earthquake hit — and, the Oahu power grids was shut down. With no electricity, hotels started emptying their refrigerators, piling food in the conference rooms and inviting guests to 24-hour all-you-can-eat buffet.

I made a dash to one specific table on which was piled the biggest hill of American cheese I’d ever seen.

I thought I had died and gone to heaven.

You see, as my family knows, American cheese is one of my favorite foods. Not just favorite cheese — favorite food.

I’m in what marketers call a micro-niche.

REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 30: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 30, 2020

1,208 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,168
> Peaked on April 21

320 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
104,542 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
403 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,168 = Current 7-day moving average
183,966 = Implied Aug 4 total @ current run rate

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click to see C-19 Key STATES Data, C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 30: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 30, 2020

Total US Deaths = 104,542 317 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 45,424 44% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 81,961 78% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 516 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 132 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge

I made the same mistake that Gov. Cuomo is making …

May 29, 2020

… but, in my defense, I was only 9 years old at the time.
============

Flashback many years to my earliest little league baseball days.

In our first game, the coach told us that — just like in the big leagues — he’d be flashing secret signs to us when we were batting:

If he touched his cap, the sign meant “take the next pitch” … don’t swing at it.

If he brushed his chest, it meant “swing away”.

Simple enough…

Here’s what happened…

REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Posted in Covid-19 Testing, Ken Memorabilia, Lessons for Life | 1 Comment »

May 29: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 29, 2020

1,227 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,202
> Peaked on April 21

255 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
103,334 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
414 = Implied Daily New Deaths average until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,227 = Current 7-day moving average
188,000 = Implied Aug 4 total @ current run rate

=============
click to see C-19 Key STATES Data, C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 29: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 29, 2020

Total US Deaths = 103,334 313 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 45,104 44% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 81,200 79% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 511 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 129 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12
PA up to #4 surpassing MICH

click chart to enlarge

I tested negative, so I’m not infected, right?

May 28, 2020

Yesterday, we reached into our toolkit and pulled out behavioral economics and Bayesian Inference.

Our big conclusion in that post was that if C-19 tests are 90% accurate and 5% of the people in our reference group are walking around infected, then roughly 2/3’s of all people who get positive test results are not infected … they’re so-called false positives.

See our prior post If I test positive for COVID, am I infected? for an explanation of the method and a walk-thru of the analysis leading to that conclusion.

Now, let’s change one of our assumptions.

In the prior post, we assumed that we were asymptomatic, have been sheltering-in-place (i.e. minimal social contacts outside of our homes) and don’t work in a COVID-prevalent environment … and we used 5% as our base rate (of virus prevalence among our reference group).

Now, let’s assume that the reference group we’re working with is elderly, has a comorbid medical history of respiratory and heart problems and is experiencing COVID-like symptoms (high fever, persistent cough), have had contact with an infected person. That’s essentially the only group that initially qualified for coronavirus testing. Lets, assume that 75% of the people in that reference group are, in fact, infected with the virus.

Here’s the Bayesian results chart would look like:

The question: what is the likelihood that the people who fit this profile are correctly diagnosed as having the virus (or not)?

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19, Covid-19 Testing, COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »

May 28: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 28, 2020

Media reports Memorial Day spikes in cases … stay focused on Daily New Deaths. This post explains why…

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1,482 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,225
> Peaked on April 21

349 NY+NJ+CT 24% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
102,107 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
=============
click to see C-19 Key STATES Data, C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 28: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 28, 2020

Total US Deaths = 102,107 3309 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 44,500 44% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 80,429 79% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 523 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 123 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge

If I test positive for COVID, am I infected?

May 27, 2020

The answer may surprise you, and it has big implications for test & trace.
=============

In a prior post, we reported that “Asymptomatics” are not rushing to get tested and provided some subjective reasons why that might be (e.g. no doctor referral, high hassle factor, privacy concerns).

OK, let’s up our game a notch or two and throw some math & economics at the problem.

==============

I’m a fan of “Freakonomics” … the popular call sign for a discipline called Behavioral Economics … the study of the rationality that underlies many seemingly irrational decisions that people sometimes make.

And, in my strategic business analytics course, I used to teach something called Bayesian Inference … a way to calculate probabilities by combining contextual information (called “base rates” or “priors”) with case-specific observations (think: testing or witnessing).

Today, we’ll connect Freakonomics and Bayesian Inference and apply them to the COVID testing situation…

Posted in Bayes - Bayesian Inference, Coronavirus - Covid 19, Covid-19 Testing, Statistics - Probabilities | Leave a Comment »

May 27: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 27, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, “catching-up” on Mon & Tues

Media reports Memorial Day spikes in cases … stay focused on Daily New Deaths. This post explains why…

=============

820 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,234
> Peaked on April 21

226 NY+NJ+CT 28% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
100,625 Worldometer

May 27: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 27, 2020

Total US Deaths = 100,625 305 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 44,500 44% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 79,430 79% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 516 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 120 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12
Ohio replaced Indiana in the Top 12 on May 25

click chart to enlarge

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 26, 2020

Stay focused on the number of Daily New Deaths!
==============

Cutting to the chase, I’ve concluded that the most reliable number being reported is the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.

According to Worldometers – the best data aggregation site that I’ve found so far – there have been almost 100,000 COVID-19 related deaths in the U.S. so far.

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From an analytical perspective, the chart of total deaths will, by definition, never crest and turn down. It’s rate of growth will eventually slow down, though, but that’s hard to read that from a chart.

So, I think it’s more useful to look at “Daily New Deaths” …. if that number keeps going up then, by definition, we haven’t turned the corner.

When Daily New Deaths start trending down then, by definition, we have turned the corner.

Here’s our charting of what Worldometers has reported since the first coronavirus cases were identified.

The dotted line is the 7-day moving average which smooths some of the day-to-day “noise” in the data.

Based on the 7-day moving average, it appears that the rate of growth of COVID-19 deaths trended downward since about April 21.

Bottom line: If you want to know if we’re starting to turn the corner, keep your eye on the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.

Choose the level of aggregation based on your specific interest … world, nation or state.

=============

More specifically, why “Daily New Deaths”?

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19, Covid-19 Testing, COVID-19 Tracking, Uncategorized | 2 Comments »

May 26: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 26, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, “catching-up” on Mon & Tues

Media reports Memorial Day spikes in cases … stay focused on Daily New Deaths. This post explains why…

=============

1,112 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,261
> Peaked on April 21

193 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
99,805 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18
=============
click to see C-19 Key STATES Data, C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 26: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 26, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 99,805 302 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 44,274 44% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 78,972 79% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 513 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 118 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

=============
State-by-State Data – Top 12
Ohio replaces Indiana in the Top 12

click chart to enlarge

Shocker: “Asymptomatics” not rushing to get tested.

Our slant on last week’s COVID news…

May 25, 2020

Here are links … just in case you missed any posts
=============

Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39
Which are the ones to watch?

UPDATE: Here we go again … “Science” takes still another u-turn.
It’s a bigger deal than whether we need to wipe down our counters and packages.

Would I take HCQ like Trump is doing?

NYU: Hydroxychloroquine cocktail cuts death rate 44%

COVID’s Impact: Geographically concentrated in only 30 US counties…
Great analysis from the researchers at the Heritage Foundation

Our slant on the prior week’s COVID-19 news … week of May 10

On this Memorial Day …

May 25, 2020

Remember all who gave their lives on our behalf
… and thank those who are serving us now.

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#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma >> Latest Posts

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Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

May 25: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 25, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, catching-up” on Mon & Tues

613 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,199
> Peaked on April 21

193 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
98,693 Worldometer
44,063 NY+NJ+CT 44% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 24, 2020

Which are the ones to watch?
=============

A loyal reader asked: The “Bottom 39” DND keeps rising, are there any particular states driving that?

So, I crunched some numbers looking at the past 3 weeks of data… May 3 until today (charts below).

During that period, there were 30,288 C-19 deaths in the U.S.

The Bottom 39 accounted for 8,601 of those deaths … that’s 28% of the total.

16 states (in the Bottom 39) had more than 200 deaths between May 3 and May 24.

Those 16 states accounted for 6,086 deaths … that’s 70% of the Bottom 39 total.

Note that:

The states near the top of the list of 16 are relatively large in population
Texas and North Carolina still have relatively low per capita death rates
Rhode Island and D.C. are low on the list of 16 (but in the Top 28) and have relatively high per capita death rates
Minnesota, Arizona, Mississippi, Iowa and New Mexico have more than doubled their death count since May 3

Here’s another cut at the data…

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 25 Comments »

May 24: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 24, 2020

1,043 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,224
> Peaked on April 21

271 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
98,693 Worldometer
43,954 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May24: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 24, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 98,693 299 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 43,954 45% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 78,218 79% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 508 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 116 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge

UPDATE: Here we go again … “Science” takes still another u-turn.

May 23, 2020

It’s a bigger deal than whether we need to wipe down our counters and packages.
==============

After months of telling us that the coronavirus lives on door knobs, countertops, packages and whatever … and that we need to disinfect all surfaces:

On it’s own, this course reversal doesn’t trouble me.

Yeah, people have become more germophobic … and, store shelves have been emptied as consumers stocked up on disinfectants.

That’s OK. It’s good hygiene and consumers will eventually work off their overstock.

My issue: This course reversal fits a bigger, problematic pattern.

May 23: Key NATIONAL Data

May 23, 2020

1,277 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,305

327 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
97,640 Worldometer
43,683 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 23: Key STATES Data

May 23, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 97,640 296 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 43,683 45% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 77,488 79% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 504 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 114 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 1 Comment »

May 22: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 22, 2020

1,445 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,350

339 NY+NJ+CT 25% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
96,363 Worldometer
43,356 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 22: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 22, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 96,363 297 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 43,356 45% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 76,588 80% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 498 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 111 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge

Shocker: “Asymptomatics” not rushing to get tested.

May 21, 2020

Quick quiz: If you wanted to get tested for COVID-19, how would go about getting a test? What are your odds of actually getting tested?
==============

The Washington Post ran an obvious-became-evident exposé: “As coronavirus testing expands, a new problem arises: Not enough people to test.”

These days, COVID testing capacity is said to be exceeding demand in some (many?) locales.

So, why aren’t people rushing to get tested?

Posted in Covid-19 Testing | 5 Comments »

May 21: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 21, 2020

1,385 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,392

381 NY+NJ+CT 28% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
94,918 Worldometer
43,092 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

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click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 21: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 21, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 94,918 288 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 43,092 45% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 75,699 80% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 492 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 109 Deaths/Million
Bottom 39: Increasing share of DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Would I take HCQ like Trump is doing?

May 20, 2020

Yesterday, I gave readers a gut-check question:

I got an interesting challenge question from a reader:

It’s a good question. One that made me think harder about the HCQ issue.

Here’s my answer…

May 20: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 20, 2020

1,548 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,444

334 NY+NJ+CT 22% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
93,533 Worldometer
42,711 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 20: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 20, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 93,553 283 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 42,711 46% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 74,759 80% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 486 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 107 Deaths/Million
Bottom 39: Increasing share of DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

NYU: Hydroxychloroquine cocktail cuts death rate 44%

May 19, 2020

Oh yeah, and “Irresponsible” Trump is taking it.
============

Remember hydroxychloroquine?

It’s what the MSM likes to refer to as “an anti-malarial drug that is unproven as beneficial treating Covid-19 patients.”

It had kinda fallen off the radar, but it’s back.

President Trump caused a stir yesterday when he casually mentioned that he started taking HCQ as a preventative medicine.

The gathered reporters gasped: “Irresponsible!”

Before getting judgmental, consider these underreported promising developments …

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 3 Comments »

May 19: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 19, 2020

1,007 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,456

278 NY+NJ+CT 32% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
91,985 Worldometer
42,377 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 19: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 19, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 91,985 279 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 42,377 46% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 73,375 80% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 479 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 104 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

COVID’s Impact: Geographically concentrated in only 30 US counties…

May 18, 2020

Great analysis from the researchers at the Heritage Foundation …
=============

The spread of COVID-19 has been extremely concentrated in a small number of states — and among a small number of counties within all states.

To date, 10 states accounted for nearly 75% of all deaths (but only 52% of the population).

Together, New York and New Jersey (9% of the U.S. population) alone account for 44% of total COVID-19 deaths.

And, the COVID-19 impact is even more concentrated than the state-level data indicate…

May-18 Key NATIONAL Data

May 18, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, catching-up” on Mon & Tues

865 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,456

366 NY+NJ+CT 42% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
90,975Worldometer
42,099 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 18: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 18, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 90,978 276 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 42,099 47% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 72,963 80% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 474 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 102 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Data: Over half of C-19 deaths in nursing homes.

George Carlin: How to build a strong immune system.

May 17, 2020

WARNING: Adult content – profanity-laced, politically-incorrect, totally insensitive to the current COVID situation and likely to offend practically everyone. Do not play in earshot of children, co-workers or sensitive adults. Hit delete now if you self-classify in that latter group.

In other word, this is classic George Carlin.

His prescription for building a strong immune system to battle germ attacks is a bit contrary to current conventional wisdom and CDC guidance.

click to view (if you dare <= you’ve been warned!)

Posted in Comedy - Jokes, Coronavirus - Covid 19 | Leave a Comment »

Our slant on last week’s COVID-19 news

May 17, 2020

Just in case you might have missed…
=============

Time to catch up on your HomaFiles reading:

“I was for hydroxychloroquine before I was against it”
… and other reasons that I couldn’t take the Dr. Bright seriously.

Oh my, what a disappointing Senate hearing…
Are these scientists just making things up as they go along?

COVID: How about squeezing the data and doing some old-fashioned profiling?
Hint: Go back and ask people who have been tested or hospitalized.

Survey: Some changes will endure post-coronavirus…

Gottleib: “We thought we’d be in a better place by now”
More deaths than expected … daily deaths on a plateau.

Birx: “Nothing from the CDC that I can trust”

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 1 Comment »

May 17: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 17, 2020

1,606 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,439

336 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
90,113 Worldometer
41,733 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 17: C-19 STATES Data

May 17, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 90,113 273 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 41,733 46% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 72,286 80% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 470 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 101 Deaths/Million
Bottom 39 Trend 4.2% > Top 12 1.2%

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 16: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 16, 2020

1,595 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,413

418 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
88,507 Worldometer
41,009 NY+NJ+CT 47% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 16: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 16, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 88,507 268 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 41,009 47% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 71,034 80% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 462 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 99Deaths/Million
Maryland 1,911 +45

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

“I was for hydroxychloroquine before I was against it”

May 15, 2020

… and other reasons that I couldn’t take the Dr. Bright seriously.
==============

Let, start at the beginning…

The “courageous” whistleblower walked into the hearing flanked by the same uber-partisan lawyers who represented Dr. Christine Blasey Ford in her failed attempt to torch Bret Kavanaugh.

I guess the signaling was supposed to be hash-tag “I Believe Him” but, at least for me, it signaled “Here We Go Again”

OK, that may be partisan-petty, so let’s get specific …

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 2 Comments »

May 15: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 15, 2020

1,740 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,426

449 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
86,912 Worldometer
40,591 NY+NJ+CT 47% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 15: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 15, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 86,912 263 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 40,591 47% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 69,935 81% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 455 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 96 Deaths/Million
Maryland 1,866 +57

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Data: Over half of C-19 deaths in nursing homes.

May 14, 2020

It’s now crystal clear that one of the great fails of the C-19 response was not recognizing that nursing homes would be underprepared hot spots … and then taking all-out action to contain the carnage among the most vulnerable subset of the population.

How bad has the carnage been?

According to an analysis compiled by the CTUP(The Committee to Unleash Prosperity):

Over half of C-19 deaths have befallen residents of nursing homes, veterans’ homes and other long-term care facilities … resulting in the death of over 2% of of the population in those facilities.

See the statistical note at the end of this post.

The percentage of reported long-term care (LTC) deaths ranges from a low of 20% in Nevada to over 80% in Minnesota.

The reported death rate (ratio of LTC deaths to the LTC population) is below 1/2% in about 1/2 of reporting states, but ranges as a high as 11.4% in New Jersey.

Here’s more state-by-state detail…

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May 14: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 14, 2020

1,747 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,482
> 3-day average 1,462

385 NY+NJ+CT 22% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
84,172 Worldometer
40,142 NY+NJ+CT 47% of US Total

Note: JHU reporting 84,059

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

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click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
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