Archive for March, 2013
March 29, 2013
We’re talking higher long-run capitalizations, not trading profits.
Over the period 1983 to 2007, the S&P increased more than 7-fold. but …
According to Longboard Asset Management, over the period 1983 to 2007:
- 40% of stocks lost value
- 19% lost at least three-quarters of their value
- 64% underperformed the market
- 25% were responsible for all the market’s gains.
Conclusion: Statistically, successful stock-picking is more about avoiding awful investments than finding good ones.
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P.S. Tell me that you can look at the last 15 years on the above chart and not feel a little queasy about where the market is these days.
It sure looks like a pattern to me …
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Posted in Stock Market | 2 Comments »
March 29, 2013
Surprised me, but the answer is yes.
But, there’s more to the story.
Clinton’s (and Gingrich’s) initiative to pare the welfare rolls cut the number of people on welfare from about 5 million to under 2 million.
Surprising to me, the number has held pretty constant for the past 15 years or so.
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As I said, there’s more to the story …
(more…)
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Tags:Disabilty claims
Posted in Disabily insurance payments, Taxes, Welfare | Leave a Comment »
March 29, 2013
T-Mobile has ditched Carly Foulkes – the pink clad hottie that’s been the star of their ads for the past couple of years.
You’re probably wondering: why the heck would T-Mobile do that?
Blame it on the market research geeks …
(more…)
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Posted in Mktg - Advertising, Mktg - Brands | 1 Comment »
March 28, 2013
Preface: In class, we just finished doing a case called “Dewey the Cat” … Teams had to recommend a price to pay the author for the rights to the book, and develop a marketing plan for the book.
So, this real-life story is very timely.
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What’s it like, financially, to have the book go viral and be near the top of the bestseller list?
Patrick Wensink wrote a book titled ““Broken Piano for President”.
According to Wensink, writing in Salon:
Last summer, my novel, “Broken Piano for President” shot to the top of the best-seller lists for a week.
After Jack Daniel’s lawyers sent cease and desist letter (because of the book’s cover graphics), the story went viral and was featured in places like Forbes, Time magazine and NPR’s Weekend Edition.
The book was the No. 6 bestselling title in America for a while … selling more copies than “Hunger Games” and “Bossypants.”
So, how much do you think Wensink netted on the book ?
(more…)
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Posted in Books & Publishing | Leave a Comment »
March 28, 2013
Last week with Ryan & the Dems offering dueling budget plans, there was renewed chatter: “Why don’t they just implement Simpson-Bowles?”.
It’s usually stated in a way that it’s a painless gimme.
The convenient compromise.
My hunch: About as many people read the Simpson-Bowles Report as read the ObamaCare law.
I expect that S-B will become a template for any “grand bargain” … so I started refreshing my memory
Here’s what you need to know …
(more…)
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Posted in Budget - Deficit, Debt - Deficit, Simpson-Bowles | Leave a Comment »
March 27, 2013
Oh, really?
Tom Boswell – Washington Post sportswriter wrote an obligatory “what’s up?” column yesterday.
Most of it was pretty soft, in effect, insinuating that very lower seeds have a tourney advantage because they have nothing to lose … so, they can play at full throttle.
And, Boswell says that “exceptional coach JT3” may need to tweak his system a bit, but not too much.
Not exactly what I’d call hard hitting.
But, Boswell did raise a couple of interesting points:
John Thompson III, may have to reevaluate, tweak and adapt the teachings of his Princeton coach and mentor Pete Carril so that Georgetown teams in the future can play up to their ability in the NCAA tournament.
A methodical pace, offensive efficiency and, especially, limiting the number of possessions in a game — all smart Ivy League tricks that Carril conceived to help his team beat more talented foes — may not carry over to the sudden-death March format that’s decimated the Hoyas five times in six years.
At Princeton, Carril conceived a brilliant system that gave him the maximum chance to beat better teams outside the Ivy League and also to defeat teams of roughly equal ability within the league
Carril’s system … has functioned exceptionally well for Thompson at Georgetown in the regular season against Big East teams of roughly equal ability, when the Hoyas’ efficiency, discipline and defense have been decisive.
But there may be a weakness in the Carril method, as adapted by Thompson.
The fewer possessions in a basketball game, the more vulnerable the better team becomes to weaker teams because they have shortened the game.
By reducing the data sample, you introduce more outlier results.
I buy this part of Bowell’s argument: the NCAAs aren’t the Ivy League and a slow-motion offense is problematic against reasonably talented, and lightning fast teams .
As I posted earlier this week, it’s why the Moneyball Oakland As won in the regular season but usually got bounced early from the play-offs.
It’s simple statistics.
But, the problem is more than a few “outliers” …
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Like father like son … not
Another point that Boswell raised caught my eye:
Ironically, John Thompson Jr. had just the opposite philosophy to his son’s — end-to-end pressure defense … plus constantly pushing for a faster tempo.
The best Hoyas teams of that era thrived in a chaos that they had created.
John Thompson Jr. believed in the fast break, the spontaneous explosion of talent.
Hmmm.
Sounds like the FCGU coach.
And, sounds much more compelling than the outliers’ argument.
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Will Georgetown fire JT3 ?
(more…)
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Tags:NCAA Tournament
Posted in Georgetown, NCAA, Sports & Athletics | 1 Comment »
March 26, 2013
On Monday, there was an email blast from Lee Reed, Georgetown’s Athletic Director.
I thought it might be a mea culpa for the basketball team’s one-and-done in the NCAA tourney.
Nope.
Maybe another pep talk re: how awesome the CYO League (oops, I meant Big East) is going to be.
Wrongamundo.
Nope.
Lee had his fund-raising hat on and was trying to stir up buying interest for Gtown sports memorabilia.
Sports memorabilia … you know like #33 or #55 jerseys … Final Four t-shirts from 2007.
Lee, you mighta sat on this one for a couple of days.
You know, let the dust settle.
Or, haven’t you heard the news?
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Posted in Georgetown, Sports & Athletics | Leave a Comment »
March 26, 2013
OK, Cyprus is going to slap a tax on bank accounts over $100,000.
The world is aghast. The end of financial systems as we know them is in the balance.
Say, what?
It’s not the first time that a government – think, U.S. government — has seized (oops, I meant “taxed”) private assets
Here are a couple of examples from close to home …
(more…)
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Tags:asset=based taxes, Cyprus
Posted in Financial Crisis, Government & Politics, Tax burden, Taxes | 1 Comment »
March 25, 2013
Harrah’s is a poster child for “predictive analytics” … using hard numbers to make good decisions.
Why then – asks the IO Creative Group of tiny York, PA – did the Las Vegas big boy casinos lose over one billion dollars.
According to IOCG, casinos attendance is up, their hotel stays are up, their night club business is up, restaurant and bar sales are up.
How could their profits be down by one billion dollars???
It is because of their belief that new customers were in order – which attracted a lot more customers who are completely NOT PROFITABLE.
These new Vegas fans sleep all day, party all night and do not gamble. They don’t shop nor do they utilize the services and amenities of the buildings.
Vegas became married to the idea that their money should be invested in attracting new younger, hipper, sexier customers and they achieved that.
What they failed to do was to invest in their current very profitable customers who were actually making them money.
Casinos got caught up in the “shiny object syndrome” — the need to go after something new when their most profitable market was already right in front of them.
When they were going after completely new markets, they should have been further investing in the one they already had.
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IOCG offers up a couple of ways to increase current customer “monetization”:
(more…)
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Tags:Casinos
Posted in Customer profitability, Mktg - Customer Acquisition, Mktg - Customer Development | Leave a Comment »
March 25, 2013
I have a couple theories of the case re: the Hoyas string of one-and-done trips to the NCAAs.
And, they’re not the usual “too cocky” or “where was Otto?” kinda stuff.
First, the back story.
All the world knows that the Hoyas were upset by Florida Gulf Coast University.
Poll: Raise your hand if you heard of FGCU before last Sunday’s selection show.
Yahoo Sports cut to the chase Saturday morning:
March Madness: when the Georgetown Hoyas suddenly turn into the Washington Generals.
In five straight trips to the Big Dance, the Hoyas have been busted out by a double-digit seed.
So only one conclusion can be drawn: after going to the Final Four in 2007, Georgetown has simply been an atrocious NCAA team.
JTIII has been JTI and done.
You’ve got to beat somebody eventually, Georgetown. Seriously
Ouch.
Here’s what I think is going on …
(more…)
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Tags:basketball, FGCU, NCAA
Posted in Sports & Athletics | 1 Comment »
March 22, 2013
Yesterday we posted that Georgetown ranks #4 for having the “smartest & hottest” students.
Turns out that it’s not just the students.
The Georgetown Patch reports that Georgetown University has the #6 “Most Attractive Workforce” in DC.
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The rankings were done by some outfit called The Hinge “which accumulated more than one million ratings” … to see which local workplaces had the most attractive employees.
I can only assume that The Hinge was talking about the b-school faculty.
Giddy up.
Thanks to former Patch reporter SMH for feeding the lead.
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Posted in Schools, Workplace | 1 Comment »
March 20, 2013
Interesting infographic from www.informationisbeautiful.net both because of the info and the way the data is visualized.
Bottom line from the full chart:
1) Non-communicable diseases (including cancer)
2) Infectious diseases
3) Cardio-vascular diseases
4) Humanity-inflicted (e.g. murders)
click the picture below to view the full infographic with details
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Posted in Death - Causes, Health & Nutrition | 2 Comments »
March 20, 2013
Interesting piece on Forbes.com …
Punch line: There’s added pressure for the Hoyas in the Tourney this year.
They have to avoid the unfortunate early losses of past years and go deep into Tournament in order to protect the image of the New Big East (aka. Catholic 7)
Of course, my favorite parts of the article:
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Posted in Big East, Forbes, Mktg - Brands, NCAA, Sports & Athletics | 1 Comment »
March 19, 2013
According to a poll conducted by the CNN – not exactly the Conservative News Network” …
1) President Obama’s approval rating has gone underwater – 47% approve to 50% disapprove.
Q1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
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2) 54% disagree with the President on the issues that matter the most to them.
Q3. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with Barack Obama on the issues that matter most to you.
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Posted in Obama, poll, Polls & Surveys | 1 Comment »
March 19, 2013
Malcolm Gladwell gave us Tipping Point.
Now, Prof. Jonah Berger from Wharton hopes to catch a wave with a new book: Contagious: Why Things Catch On.
Berger says you need 6-elements – or STEPPS – to boost your odds of going viral:
- Social currency:, It’s all about people talking about things to make themselves look good, rather than bad
- Triggers, which is all about the idea of “top of mind, tip of tongue.” We talk about things that are on the top of our heads.
- Ease for emotion: When we care, we share. The more we care about a piece of information or the more we’re feeling physiologically aroused, the more likely we pass something on.
- Public: When we can see other people doing something, we’re more likely to imitate it.
- Practical value: Basically, it’s the idea of news you can use. We share information to help others, to make them better off.
- Stories, or how we share things that are often wrapped up in stories or narratives
One of the book’s examples is BlendTec – a blender company that we posted a couple weeks ago in an article worth reading (again): Marketing ROI: What you get for $300 million … and for $10.
For more, click to see a 15 minute interview with Prof. Berger.
Pretty interesting.
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Posted in Mktg - Buzz - Word of Mouth, Mktg - Internet, Mktg - Promotion | Leave a Comment »
March 18, 2013
According to the latest RealClearPolitics poll=of-polls …
President Obama’s 48.2% approval rating is still 1.9 percentage points above his disapproval rating (46.3%).
But, the 48.2% is less than a majority … and down 4.6 percentage points from Obama’s post-election high.
Time to redouble the charm offensive …
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Posted in Obama, Polls & Surveys | 1 Comment »
March 18, 2013
According to the WSJ, unmarried teenage pregnancies are declining … but 20-somethings who are delaying marriage aren’t delaying having children.
Say, what?
Here are some factoids from the WSJ article …
(more…)
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Posted in Birth rates, Marriage - families | Leave a Comment »
March 15, 2013
There was Administrative euphoria last week when the employment numbers were released … almost 200,000 jobs added.
In the words of former Obama economic guru Austan Goolsbee: “Whoo-hoo”
Yep. positive sign.
But, let’s look a little deeper … a couple of charts I haven’t seen other places.
(more…)
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Tags:FRED
Posted in Employment - Jobs, Unemployment | Leave a Comment »
March 15, 2013
According to Channel 4 in DC …
A Maryland woman was shocked after she received a traffic ticket on Interstate 95 — because it wasn’t for speeding.
She was driving two mph under the speed limit … too slow said the trooper … by 2 MPH.
The driver was driving in the left lane of I-95 when she was pulled over..
According to the citation, she had been driving 63 mph in the left hand lane in a 65 mph zone.
The citation read, “Failure of driver, driving below speed limit, 63 in a 65.”
A retired state trooper said Tuesday that the ticket may not hold up in court.
“You can drive in the left lane in Maryland as long as you are doing the speed limit, or not impeding by going 10 mph under the speed limit.”
While police said they can’t comment on this specific ticket, they said that driving too slowly can impede traffic, and that anyone who wants to fight a citation can do so in court.
The driver has filed a complaint with Maryland State Police and plans to fight the ticket.
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Bottom line: Besides being a nitwit, the trooper didn’t even get the law right.
Now, this poor lady has to miss a day of work to go to court and get the charges dismissed … which they will be.
Think the trooper will be written up … or at least admonishe by the judge?
I’m betting the under.
Vroom, vroom ….
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Tags:Ticket for going too slow
Posted in Laws - Very Strange | 1 Comment »
March 15, 2013
Prof. Mark Perry of AEI crafted the below chart and observes …
Employment in temporary help services grew by 16,100 jobs in February, bringing the total number of temporary and contract workers to 2.58 million last month, the highest level since August 2007.
As a leading indicator of overall US labor market demand, the ongoing positive trend in temporary hiring is a sign that the labor market is gradually improving and suggests an increased pace of broader-based hiring for workers going forward in 2013.
It’s also likely that many employees who initially get hired on a temporary basis will be offered employment on a full-time permanent basis as the economy improves.
Prof Perry sees the glass as half full
Predictably, I see the glass as half-empty …
(more…)
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Posted in Economy, Employment - Jobs, Labor Economics, Labor Force | Leave a Comment »
March 14, 2013
According to the WSJ …
Tuition at public colleges jumped last year by a record amount.
The average amount that students at public colleges paid in tuition climbed 8.3% last year, the biggest jump on record.
In some cases, state tuition has risen so much that costs approach what students might pay at a private college.
Tuition revenue accounted for a record 47% of educational funding at public colleges last year.
Rising tuition costs are “another example of the bind that public institutions are in,” said Sandy Baum, an economist at Skidmore College.
“Unless we make public funding a higher priority, the funds are going to have to come from parents and students.”
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Ken’s Take:
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Posted in Education - Academics, Schools, Tuition & fees | 1 Comment »
March 14, 2013
With a puff of white smoke, Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina became Pope Francis.
Seems like a good guy …
1. In Argentina, rode around on buses instead of private limos
2. When elected, told Cardinals who voted for him “May God forgive you”
3. First Jesuit Pope … HOYA SAXA
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Tags:Jesuits, Pope
Posted in Religion | Leave a Comment »
March 14, 2013
First, a couple of disclaimers …
1) At heart, I relish conspiracy theories.
2) You probably know this already
But … the obvious has suddenly became clear to me.
Ben is in cahoots with Barack.
Here’s how and why it matters.
As loyal readers know, I’m bearish on the stock market.
Most companies have done a monumental job deleveraging and boosting profits by restructuring … i.e. jettisoning under-performing assets and employees.
Add QE1, QE2, QE3 … and you’ve got yourself a stock market rally.
What perplexed me is why Obama would tolerate monetary policy that makes the rich richer (way richer) and keeps the poor poor.
Didn’t make sense to me.
Until the light bulb finally illuminated.
Here’s what’s going on … (more…)
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Posted in Money & stock prices, Quantitative Easing - QE, Taxes | 2 Comments »
March 13, 2013
Remember Education Secretary Arne Duncan pitching the party line on Sequester, saying that 70,000 teachers would lose their jobs.
Implied: no place else to look for the savings.
Well, the Milton Friedman Foundation crunched some nums, and guess what?
In 25 states, the number of bureaucrats and administrators now outnumber teachers in public schools.
Whoa, Nellie.
Here are the 10 states will the worst staff to teacher ratios.
Start looking there, Arne.
Source: Carpe Diem
Grieves me to see my home state of VA at the top of the list … almost 2 to 1 admin to teachers.
Ouch.
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For state-by-state details, check out the cool interactive chart the the Friedman folks put together … everything you need to know about public schools,
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Tags:Sequester
Posted in Education - Academics | Leave a Comment »
March 13, 2013
According to a McClatchy-Marist poll, President Obama’s approval rating has dropped to the lowest level in more than a year … putting him underwater 45% to 48%
The pollsters opine that “At least some of the president’s fall to Earth lies in the fact that voters no longer see him in the context of an election. He has to stand alone in the eyes of voters.”
That is, it’s not a matter of better or worse than Romney … it’s a matter of doing the job effectively or not.
The poll also reports that “Obama’s personal popularity also has declined, with 48 percent of voters having favorable impressions of him and 48 percent having unfavorable impressions.
That was down from 53-44 in December. It also was the lowest since November 2011, when it was 47-49.”
Hard to believe that name-calling and whoppers would nick a guy’s nice guy image …
The poll also queried “Who has the better approach with the budget deficit?”
(more…)
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Tags:McClatchy-Marist Poll
Posted in Obama, Polls & Surveys | 1 Comment »
March 12, 2013
Oops. Got the stories crossed.
It’s John Paulson moving to PR.
Flaaco just signed a contract making him the highest paid NFL player ever.
Well, kinda … more on that below.
It’s
being reported that hedge fund legend John Paulson is considering leaving New York to go to Puerto Rico, where a tax loophole would let him reduce taxes on the $9.5 billion he has in his own hedge fund.
Bloomberg reports that several wealthy Americans have already taken advantage of the year-old Puerto Rican law that lets new residents pay no local or U.S. federal taxes on capital gains.
Note: The marginal tax rate for affluent New Yorkers can exceed 50 percent.
Back to the Flacco story … (more…)
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Tags:Puerto Rico, Tax loopholes
Posted in Sports & Athletics, Tax Loopholes, Taxes | 1 Comment »
March 12, 2013
This chart can not be shown too often.
It shows the commitment the Obama Administration made to secure the trillion dollar faux-stimulus funding.
We were supposed to be around 5% unemployment now.
Oops
Source
Here’s the second chart …
(more…)
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Posted in Employment - Jobs | Leave a Comment »
March 11, 2013
On the road this week … savoring the joys of air travel.
Stop #1: Southwest’s curbside check-in.
Guy in front of us had one of those “c’mon man” moments.
His bag weighed in at a couple of pounds over the 50# limit.
The skycap – a very nice guy – explained that he’d have to take a few things out of his bag to sneak under the weight limit or shell out 75 bucks – roughly $25 per pound – for the excess.
The guy started rifling through his bag and made weight.
Of course, the incident got me thinking …
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Tags:airlines charges, overweight bags
Posted in Airlines, Mktg - Pricing | 5 Comments »
March 11, 2013
Let me get this straight …
The Sequester is causing unprecedented Fed fiscal heartburn.
So bad, the public tours of the White House have been cancelled … saving a reported $75,000 weekly.
No place else to look for scratch.
Not to worry, though, the party lights will still be shining bright at the White House.
Here’s what’s going down …
(more…)
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Tags:Adele, Beyonce, Michelle Obama
Posted in Budget - Deficit, Debt - Deficit, Sequester | 1 Comment »
March 8, 2013
Liberal economists say not to worry since interest rates are so low … take all the cheap money you can get.
So, the Feds have been piling on debt … at an average cost of about 2%.
Doing some arithmetic, the cost to service the debt is about $350 billion annually … about 10% of Federal spending.
Here’s the rub …
About half of the debt is short-term … less than 3 years.
Source: Strategic Research Partners
So what?
What if interest rates were to jump back to more historical levels …. say 6%.
Boom.
Suddenly, servicing the debt would have an annual downstroke of over $1 trillion.
Makes the Sequester look like a walk in the park, doesn’t it?
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Posted in Debt - Deficit, Economy, Interest rates | Leave a Comment »
March 7, 2013
Seems like many folks have lost interest, but tomorrow, the official BLS employment numbers come out.
Initial unemployment claims are still hovering around 350,000 per week … suggesting that the employment picture is staying pretty stable.
As a cross-check to the government numbers, I like to compare them with Gallup’s daily tracking poll.
Hmmm.
Since mid-February , Gallup’s measured unemployment rate has been rising and, in the past week or so, has broken back up above 8%
Wonder what the BLS will report tomorrow.
I’m betting the under …
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Posted in BLS, Employment - Jobs, Gallup, Unemployment | Leave a Comment »
March 7, 2013
Last Saturday, my son forwarded a friend’s Tweet to me:
Hmmm.
Started me thinking … Sequester announced on Friday … slow down on Saturday … coincidence?
Then, Obama announces that he’s shutting down White House tours because of the Sequester – the Presidential version of taking his bat & ball and going home.
Wait a second: I’ve seen this play before … bat & ball, Operation Shutdown.
Of course.
It’s the Derek Bell story.
The year was 2002.
(more…)
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Tags:Sequester
Posted in Debt - Deficit, Gov't Waste & Inefficiency, Gov't Spending, Sports & Athletics | 1 Comment »
March 7, 2013
News scoop from Business Insider:
“JC Penney Has Color-Coded Employees To Prepare For Future Firings”
More scoop from the Insider:
JCPenney has split up its associates into categories based on their performance and abilities, according to sources inside the company.
Sources told us that … they were to categorize their associates into one of three categories:
- Red — Remove from company
- Yellow — Coach up or out
- Green — Go forward
Managers were told to “be prepared to make decisions” in the months ahead.
Managers were also instructed to let them know if they weren’t performing up to par.
Workers are afraid that more job cuts are on the way, on top of the 19,000 workers eliminated since CEO Johnson started at the company.
“Is that really the best way to be ‘America’s Favorite Place To Work?'”
Question to Business Insider: This is news?
Well run companies have been sorting employees into ability and performance tiers fro decades … maybe centuries.
Remember Jack Welch’s policy of jettisoning the bottom 10% every year?
It would be more newsworthy if JCP didn’t have a performance management system.
Or, if JCP’s management just whined like the Obama’s Cabinet Secretaries that absolutely no cuts could be made with Armageddon.
See, that’s the difference between the private sector and the public sector …
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Tags:JC Penney
Posted in Private sector, Public Sector, Public Sector - Private Sector, Retailing | Leave a Comment »
March 6, 2013
Here’s an interesting play ….
Northern Virginia schools are closed today because of the threat of a snow storm.
So, Pizzeria Uno sent an email announcing a special “Snow Day Deal” … free meals for the school-cancelled kids … (with a matching adult paying full fare, of course).
Question: Wonder if Uno’s will get sued if some jabrone drives off a slippery road coming to score some free chow for his kid?
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Tags:snow days, Uno's Pizzeria
Posted in Mktg - Internet, Mktg - Promotion | Leave a Comment »
March 6, 2013
Hot off the wire …
Despite the Administration’s dire warnings, the release of jailed criminal immigrants and the slower-than-usual TSA checks …
The Washington Post is reporting survey results indicating that 61% of folks support the Sequester’s budget cuts overall … though 60% oppose the cuts to military spending.
Said differently, folks overwhelmingly support the non-military donestic spending cuts.
That’s huge!
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Here are some interesting details …
(more…)
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Tags:Sequester
Posted in Debt - Deficit, Gov't Waste & Inefficiency, Gov't Spending, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »
March 6, 2013
It’s snowing in DC today … err, kinda.
Not much on the ground … temp is 34 degrees … roads are clear … but those AccuWeaterher folks are saying more snow is coming.
Good enough for the Feds … to shut the government down.
Archive phote … not from today!
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Just heard my absolute favorite public service message on TV:
Due the inclement weather, non-essential Federal government workers do not have to report for work today.
Maybe the Feds can use the snow storm to solve the Sequester bruhaha … here’s how.
(more…)
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Tags:non-essential employees
Posted in Debt - Deficit, Gov't Waste & Inefficiency, Gov't Spending | 2 Comments »
March 6, 2013
Yesterday was a day of stock market joy … the Dow hit a new high water mark.
Since halving itself during the financial crisis, the market has more than doubled … recouping its losses … and more.
But, what about the the technical factors … just reading the charts.
Yesterday, we posted the red section below … and asked the question: see the pattern?
To me, looks like we’re approaching a cyclical peak.
Today, look at the black line … and the trend line that I’ve added.
The chart deflates the S&P 500 … adjusting for inflation.
Hmmm.
Looks like the real value of the S&P 500 has been trending down for the past 15 years or so.
Think we’ll defy the trend line and keep heading up?
I’m betting the under.
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Disclaimers:
- I don’t give investment advice … I just observe stuff.
- I’m on record having predicted a significant market drop during Obama’s 2nd term
I’m still holding my ground.
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Tags:Dow record
Posted in Stock Market | 1 Comment »
March 5, 2013
Last week, Secretary of Education Arne Duncan was racking up Pinocchios, trying to whip up some Sequester hysteria.
He said that the world will end if the Fed’s Ed budget is cut by 2% … 40,000 will lose their jobs.
Hmmm.
His analysis was quickly debunked but, for me, it prompted a fundamental question: how is the Dept. of Education doing?
Today, let’s look at perceptions.
Bottom line: folks – you know, taxpayers – the Ed Dept’s “customers” — rate the Dept. of Education the lowest among Federal Agencies … and the agency with the sharpest decline.
A Pew Research poll reports that …
Despite spending hundreds of billions of dollars over the past couple of decades, the Department of Education gets the fewest favorability nods for Americans … only 40% give it a favorable rating … and its favorability rating is falling faster than any other agency.
The Education Dept’s low ratings aren’t that surprising since the U.S. is constantly reported to be trailing other developed nations in math, science and other basic skills … and since every politician lasers in on our need to fix public education (while protecting the sanctity of the teachers’ unions).
Want more analysis?
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Posted in Education - Academics, Gov't Waste & Inefficiency, Gov't Spending, Government & Politics | Leave a Comment »
March 5, 2013
OK, let’s role play.
You’re in a job interview or taking the GMAT or chatting with a shrink.
You’re presented with the following chart and asked to etch out the next couple of moves.
What’s your play?
Answer’s pretty clear right?
Looks like a recurring cycle that’s about to turn down.
Here’s the “so what?”
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Tags:7-year Cycles
Posted in Cycles - Business Cycles, Stock Market | 1 Comment »
March 4, 2013
Last week, Secretary of Education Arne Duncan was shrilling on behalf of the Chicken Little crowd that because of the Sequester 40,000 teachers would lose their jobs.
His claim was quickly debunked, but he left a lasting impression .. on me, at least.
“Dollars” don’t have emotional impact any more.
So, let’s start thinking in terms of full-time teacher equivalents (FTTEs).
Duncan got his estimate by assuming that an average teacher makes $70,000.
Maybe in Chicago they do.
But, according to PayScale.com the national average is in the mid-40s.
Let’s do a hard round for arithmetic convenience and call it $50,000.
Here’s what Kerry did, evaluated using the new metric full-time teacher equivalents (FTTEs) …
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Posted in Budget - Deficit, Debt - Deficit, Gov't Waste & Inefficiency, Gov't Spending, Obama | 1 Comment »
March 3, 2013
Maybe the President was right when he went around the country shouting that the Sequester would cause great damage.
He probably wasn’t thinking about his approval ratings, though.
The latest Gallup daily tracking poll (a 3-day moving average) reported that 47% approve of the job he’s doing as president.
Obviously, below the 50% Mendoza line.
More interesting: since it’s a 3-day moving average, the drop on March 1 must have been in the low 40s in order to drag the moving average down so precipitously.
Could be noise … or could be signal … reflecting reaction to the debunked catastrophe stories, the Woodward bruhaha, or turn-off to the non-presidential Chicken Little routine.
We’ll see.
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Tags:Sequester
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