STATE DEATHS Worldometer
State-by-State Data – Top 12
Are these scientists just making things up as they go along?
=============
I watched or listened to practically all of yesterday’s Senate hearing on the coronavirus.
Bottom line: My heart sank faster and deeper than the real-time stock market ticker.
On balance, I thought the the Senators did a pretty good job. With a couple of exceptions (think: Sanders and Warren), there was less political venom than I expected and more reasonable, relevant questions.
Unfortunately, the format worked against the hearing.
Just like it’s easier to say mean things to someone in an email than it is to mean-speak face-to-face. the virtual-remote environment minimized “constructive tension” between the participants.
And, as usual, the 5-minute time limits precluded deep-probe closure on any issue.
For example, Sen. Romney had an exchange that caught my attention:
Time ran out before Romney could ask the logical follow-up question:
“Well, Dr. Fauci, then who is responsible?”
My bet: The answer would certainly have been revealing … one way or another.
Let me explain…
Headline: Downward trend appears real.
1,630 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,593
> 3-day average 1,129
405 NY+NJ+CT 25% of US Total
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
83,425 Worldometer
39,757 NY+NJ+CT 48% of US Total
Note: JHU reporting 82,339
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12
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click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:
STATE DEATHS Worldometer
State-by-State Data – Top 12
Hint: Go back and ask people who have been tested or hospitalized.
=============
Finally, Gov. Cuomo has directed hospitals to ask new coronavirus patients for some demographic and behavioral information such as their occupation, usual transportation mode and neighborhood.
Cuomo says the early results from this info-seeking initiative and the state’s antibody testing have provided some confirming data and some “shocking” revelations, including:
Of course, these sample sizes are small and the results may or may not be projectably true.
The point is that “they” should have been recording this sort of information from the get-go.
The plan is to start asking a battery of questions when people are tested for the coronavirus (both diagnostic and antibody testing, I assume) and when they’re admitted to the hospital.
That’s fine, but I’ve got a better idea…
Headline: Downward trend appears real.
1,008 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,696
> 3-day average 1,060
309 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US Total
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
81,795 Worldometer
39,352 NY+NJ+CT 48% of US Total
Note: JHU reporting 80,378
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
137,184 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 2,709 on 5/10
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click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:
STATE DEATHS Worldometer
State-by-State Data – Top 12
USC’s Annenberg School of Communications surveyed Americans about how they are living and coping with the rapid changes wrought by the pandemic … and which changes will endure. Source
Based on the survey’s findings, there are at least 10 areas where the outbreak is likely to have permanent effects on our personal, professional and cultural lives.
Here’s their list…
STATE DEATHS Worldometer
State-by-State Data – Top 12
Headline: Here’s hoping, but numbers look too good to be true.
750 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,741
> 3-day trend 1,286
Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends with “catch-up” on Mon & Tues
222 NY+NJ+CT 30% of US Total
NY = 41 <= looks suspicious
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
80,787 Worldometer
39,043 NY+NJ+CT 48% of US Total
Note: JHU reporting 79,528
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
137,184 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 2,709 on 5/10
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click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:
More deaths than expected … new deaths on a plateau.
==============
Dr. Scott Gottleib is a former head of the FDA.
My view: He usually makes a lot of sense, so I listen to him.
In a WSJ columns, Gottleib observes:
Everyone thought we’d be in a better place after weeks of sheltering in place and bringing the economy to a near standstill.
Mitigation hasn’t failed; social distancing and other measures have slowed the spread.
But the halt hasn’t brought the number of new cases and deaths down as much as expected or stopped the epidemic from expanding.
And, there’s more to the story…
Whoa, Nellie …
=============
According to the Washington Post…
During a task force meeting this week, a heated discussion broke out between Deborah Birx and Robert Redfield, the director of the CDC:
Birx and others were frustrated with the CDC’s antiquated system for tracking virus data.
They worried (that he CDC system) was inflating some statistics — such as mortality rate and case count — by as much as 25 percent.
“There is nothing from the CDC that I can trust,” Birx said.
The flare-up came two days after it was reported that an internal government model, based on data from the CDC (via Johns Hopkins), projected the daily death count would rise to 3,000 by the end of May.
Birx said in a statement:
Mortality is slowly declining each day.
To keep with this trend, it is essential that seniors and those with comorbidities shelter in place and that .
The Post also reports:
Whereas initially the task force found itself scrambling to deploy a whack-a-mole management effort, dealing with regular crises as they emerged — from coronavirus-infected cruise ships to the urgent need for ventilators — the administration now intends to shift its focus to what is says is more strategic longer-term planning.
1,422 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,798
> 3-day trend 1,746
376 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
80,037 Worldometer
38,821 NY+NJ+CT 49% of US Total
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<
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click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:
STATE DEATHS Worldometer
State-by-State Data – Top 12
WSJ says there are 5 reasons.
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This is an awkward post to write.
As much of the country is struggling to pay the rent and put food on the table, today I’m channeling a WSJ explanatory on why the stock market is doing as well as it is (down 9% from Feb. high, but up 30% from March low)
Putting my legacy of Catholic guilt aside… The WSJ offers 5 reasons:
Here are some supporting details & tidbits…
1,697 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,834
> 3-day trend 2,113
449 NY+NJ+CT 27% of US Total
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
78,615 Worldometer
38,445 NY+NJ+CT 49% of US Total
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<
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click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:
STATE DEATHS Worldometer
State-by-State Data – Top 12
From China to Europe to NYC to…
=============
Let’s start this story near the beginning…
By mid-March , it had become apparent that New York (more specifically, the NYC metroplex) was a blazing coronavirus hot spot.
It was also becoming apparent that the West Coast outbreaks had been “seeded” by travelers from China … and, that the NYC outbreak had been seeded from Europe.
At the March 24 Task Force Press conference, Dr. Birx casually mentioned that “60% of all the new coronavirus cases in the United States stem from the New York City metro area” and advised New Yorkers, wherever they were, to shelter-in-place. Source
It was commonly misconceived that Dr. Birx was saying that 60% of new cases were occurring in New York … ignoring the key words: “stem from”.
The governors of Rhode Island and Florida understood what she was clearly saying.
Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo’s directed state police to stop vehicles with New York license plates at the border, encourage them to u-turn … and if they demurred, to collect ID information from drivers and passengers and advise them to self-quarantine for 14 days to “stop the spread”. She also encouraged local law enforcement to go door-to-door looking for New York license plates and advise the car owners of the need to self-quarantine.
Following suit, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis started jawboning New Yorkers:
Then, fearing that New York travelers were “akin to international travelers bringing the disease from Europe and China”, DeSantis issued an executive order requiring fliers from the New York area be tested on arrival and advised to self-isolate for two weeks upon arrival in the Florida.
President Donald Trump floated a trial balloon that he might institute a ban on New Yorkers’ travel to others states amid the coronavirus.
Encouraged by the ACLU, Gov. Cuomo accused President Trump of “trying to start a civil war”, insinuated that Gov. DeSantis was a rube “playing to his rural constituency” and threatened to sue his Rhode Island neighbor.
President Trump let the matter drop, the Florida restrictions died under the weight of the heavy stream of New Yorkers fleeing to the Miami environs and Rhode Island caved to Cuomo’s threats.
OK, now let’s fast forward to today…
2,129 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,865 Level
> 3-day trend 2,334 Up Slightly
750 NY+NJ+CT 65% of US Total
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
76,928 Worldometer
37,996 NY+NJ+CT 49% of US Total
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<
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click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:
STATE DEATHS Worldometer
State-by-State Data – Top 12
Maybe it’s time for a national gut-check
==============
Earlier this week, there was a heart-wrenching story on TV.
A woman was telling the story of the Massachusetts state-run Holyoke Soldiers’ Home that had suffered over 80 C-19 fatalities. Her elderly father was one of the casualties.
She had been trying for weeks, to no avail, to speak with her father, or at least get a status report on his condition. Her first contact was when he was being wheeled to the coroner’s van.
click to see details
Of course, the daughter was heart-broken and observed “nobody seemed to care … they’re just old people”.
That struck a chord with me …
Of course, people who have loved ones in nursing homes are concerned about their level of care.
At a minimum, they want their loved ones kept safe and comfortable.
But, what do we as a nation really think?
2,524 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,881 trending down
> 3-day trend 2,066 DOWNWARD
1,117 NY+NJ+CT 44% of US Total
NY “found” 1,700 “presumed” cases.
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
74,799 Worldometer
37,246 NY+NJ+CT 50% of US Total
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<
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click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:
STATE DEATHS Worldometer
State-by-State Data – Top 12
In mid-April, we pointed out the obvious: the operative projection at the time (60,000 deaths by Aug. 4) — which was modeled by IHME, touted by Pres. Trump, and head-nodded by Drs. Fauci & Birx — was arithmetically unlikely.
Our simple logic: At the time, the US had already had about 40,000 deaths and was running at a rate of about 2,000 new deaths each day. To stay under 60,000, the average daily death rate would need to drop to 200. That didn’t seem likely.
And, we pointed out that IHME routinely reported a wide confidence interval (aka. zone of uncertainty) that ranged up to 140,000.
The new 134.475 projection falls within that confidence level.
Add to the mix some data mumbo-jumbo: There have been some definitional and procedural changes that have boosted the reported number of deaths.
Consecutive 5-day down streak ENDED
=============
2,350 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,875 trending down
> 3-day trend 1,858 DOWNWARD
678 NY+NJ+CT 29% of US Total
346 Pennsylvania
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
72,275 Worldometer
33,573 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<
Now, IHME forecasts for the US are based on a new hybrid model.
(The original model) is now combined with a disease transmission model.
The latest US forecasts are based on four key determinants estimated from data: mobility, population density, testing, and temperature.
The new model captures the impact of changes in social distancing mandates, changes in mobility, and the impact of testing and contact tracing.
It enables predicting a resurgence when social distancing mandates are relaxed.
Source: IHME
Note: The revised forecast implies that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4. Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.
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click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:
STATE DEATHS Worldometer
State-by-State Data – Top 12
Changed counting rules and an unintended consequence of hospital reimbursements?
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Early on, we concluded that coronavirus statistics are generally problematic and that “cutting to the chase, the most reliable number being reported is the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.
For details, see: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
I argued that if anything is discrete and countable, it’s a death (versus, say, a “confirmed case”).
I acknowledged the problem posed by the difference between “dies with” and “died because of”.
But, I assumed that the counting rules would stay the same and that there wouldn’t be incentives (intentional or unintended) to either over- or under-report.
Silly, me.
A couple of weeks ago, the CDC changed a counting rule.
The original rule: If a patient tests positive for the coronavirus and dies, put COVID on the death certificate.
The change: Doctors should also record “presumed” coronavirus deaths even if they aren’t “confirmed cases”.
In NYC alone, that change boosted the death total by almost 5,000.
That might be the right way to do it, but it did screw up the data series.
So be it.
==============
A second counting issue has to do with economic incentives…
Over the weekend, Gov. Cuomo reported final results from the NY antibody test program..
Key Data:
12.3% of the NY state sample tested positive for coronavirus antibodies.
Note: The rate in NYC was 19.9%
That extrapolates to 2.4 million New Yorkers.
Given the current number of cases (327,374), 2.1 million (86.3%) of the already infected people were, by definition asymptomatic — having no or mild symptoms.
The implied deaths to infections rate is (1.0%).
The implications…
Major upward revision of IHME forecast
=============
1,324 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 5 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,875 trending down
> 3-day trend 1,383 DOWNWARD
442 NY+NJ+CT 33% of US Total
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
69,925 Worldometer
35,451 NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<
Starting today, IHME forecasts for the US are based on a new hybrid model.
(The original model) is now combined with a disease transmission model.
The latest US forecasts are based on four key determinants estimated from data: mobility, population density, testing, and temperature.
The new model captures the impact of changes in social distancing mandates, changes in mobility, and the impact of testing and contact tracing.
It enables predicting a resurgence when social distancing mandates are relaxed.
Source: IHME
Note: The revised forecast implies that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4. Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.
=============
click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:
Geez, haven’t we been saying that for weeks?
==============
Dr. Scott Gottleib is a former head of the FDA.
In a WSJ columns, Gottleib observes:
Everyone thought we’d be in a better place after weeks of sheltering in place and bringing the economy to a near standstill.
Mitigation hasn’t failed; social distancing and other measures have slowed the spread.
But the halt hasn’t brought the number of new cases and deaths down as much as expected or stopped the epidemic from expanding.
What’s the key to getting the virus under control?
Tests, Confirmed Cases, Deaths
Cumulative Totals and Key Ratios
Data as of May 3, 2020
==============
Now that we seem to be heading down the backside of “the curve” and are starting to re-open the economy … I thought it would be a good time to heatmap where states stand relative to each other along the key variables: number of tests, confirmed cases and deaths … and, to “normalize” the data by adding some key ratios.
For example, here are the 10 states with the highest number of deaths per million … and the 10 with the lowest number of deaths per million:
>> Click for a PDF that displays all of the data <<
The reference guide includes sections sorted by:
All data is sourced from Worldometer as of May 3 2020.
1,154 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 5 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,884 declining slightly
Caution: Weekend reporting has tended to under-report,
catching-up on Mon & Tues
483 NY+NJ+CT 42% of US Total
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
68,602 Worldometer
35,029 NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29
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click for Key STATES Data
=============
Related Posts:
STATE DEATHS Worldometer
Summary
State-by-State Data – Top 12
Related Posts:
“Why do we have to have symptoms to get tested?”
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The Senate (but not the Congress) is scheduled to get back on the job this week.
Roughly half the senators are 65 or older … and, thus, officially in the coronavirus’ “vulnerable” group.
So, it’s understandable that they’re eager that all colleagues have a clean bill of health before returning to the Senate chambers.
Here’s the rub…
Below is the current list of the Top 10 HomaFiles posts.
WordPress — the blogging platform that I use — auto-generates the list based on total views since posting and which posts are trending.
Which is the goose among the ducks?
Yep, #1, the “How much house?” post.
It’s the all-time leader in cumulative views (by a lot), so it’s a near-permanent topic in the top 10 … but it’s usually buried in the middle of the list.
My hypothesis: The post gets a lot of “over the transom” views from folks who don’t follow the HomaFiles … mostly because the question in the title of the post sorts high on Google searches.
Over time, I’ve noticed that the housing post sorts higher on the list when the housing market heats up (e.g. when there’s a significant cut in mortgage rates). That makes sense.
Maybe the current coronavirus situation (i.e. some spots are particularly hot; everybody spending more time at home) has a lot of folks thinking about moving.
Hmmm.
=============
P.S. You can click on the links above if you’ve missed any of the trending posts.
1,672 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 4 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,883 declining slightly
600 NY+NJ+CT 35% of US Total
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
67,448 Worldometer
36,526 NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29
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click for Key STATES Data
=============
Related Posts:
STATE DEATHS Worldometer
Summary
State-by-State Data – Top 12
Related Posts:
1,905 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 3 consecutive days
> 7-day trend @ ~1,937 declining slightly
681 NY+NJ+CT 35% of US
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
65,776 Worldometer
33,946 NY+NJ+CT 52% of US
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29
=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============
Related Posts:
STATE DEATHS Worldometer
Summary
State-by-State Data – Top 12
Related Posts:
Warning: Read this before you apply for the job.
=============
Contact tracing & testing is front and center as a fundamental component of the Coronavirus Task Force’s plan to go forward.
Dr. Fauci has said (over & over again) that the process worked fine 30 years ago when he was fighting AIDs … and the media says that the test & trace model has been South Korea’s secret sauce fighting the coronavirus.
The essence of the process: Do diagnostic surveillance testing to ID people currently infected with the coronavirus, then trace back to ID the people with whom they’ve been in contact … then notify those people and test them … if they test positive, repeat the process … then again and again.
Sounds easy enough, doesn’t it?
But, it might not be as easy as it sounds.
Let’s run some numbers…
2,236 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend is level @ ~2,000
853 NY+NJ+CT 38% of US
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative U.S. Deaths
63,871 Worldometer
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29
=============
Related Posts:
The Homa Files 