Archive for June, 2012
June 30, 2012
Remember the “Chinese Professor” commercial that ran during the 2010 elections cycle?
click to view
It was generally considered to be a very effective execution.
The GOP’s stated strategy for 2012 is is to use President Obama’s own words and actions against him.
“Operation Hot Mic” is the work of American Crossroads — Karl Rove’s Super Pac.
I think the commercial is very well crafted … it combines the feel of “Chinese Professor” with the guts of “Own Words”.
Worth watching whether conservative or liberal …
click to view
Thanks to JC for feeding the lead
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Tags:2012 Campaign, American Crossroads, Chinese professor, hot mic, more flexible, Obama, political ads
Posted in Campaign 2012, Obama, Obama - Promises Made & Kept, Political ads | 1 Comment »
June 29, 2012
I know it’s getting a bit tedious … but, , here’s this week’s unemployment claims headline:
“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000.
The prior week’s figure was revised up to 392,000 from the previously reported 387,000.”
Said differentlt: Unemployment claims (386,000) decreased by 1,000 from last week’s reported number (387,000) … but last week’s reported number (387,000) was revised up by 5,000 to 392,000 … so, this week’s number is not a decrease of 1,000, it’s a decrease of 6,000.
C’mon man.
My bet: this week’s number 386,000 will be revised upward next week.
That’s a safe bet, since the BLS has under-reported initial unemployment claims for 67 out of the last 68 weeks.
Here’s the recap for the past 7 weeks:
Bottom line: a consistent bias – maybe statistical, maybe political – that provides Obama with jobs’ headlines more favorable than reality
Either the BLS has the worst statisticians on the face of the earth, or they’ve become political hacks.
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Tags:BLS, cooking the books, political bias, statististical bias, unemployment claims
Posted in BLS, Employment - Jobs, Unemployment | Leave a Comment »
June 29, 2012
According to the U.S. Trust Insights on Wealth and Worth Survey …
Only 55% of boomers (those 47 to 66 years old) consider it important to leave a financial inheritance to their children or other heirs.
The top reasons cited for not leaving an inheritance to children were:
- “Each generation should earn its own wealth.”
- “It’s more important to invest in my children’s/heirs’ success while they’re growing up.”
- “I worked hard for my wealth and will want to enjoy it myself.”
- “I would rather give the money to charity.”
- “My children/heirs will have enough money and don’t need an inheritance.”
- “My children (heirs) can’t handle wealth.”
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Tags:baby boomers, charity, inheritance
Posted in Finance, Financial Analysis | Leave a Comment »
June 28, 2012
Trick question.
CVS operates about 550 in store clinics under the the Minute Clinic brand umbrella.
More broadly, there are about 1,200 total in-store clinics … run by CVS, Walgreen, Wal-Mart, Kroger and Target.
Ken’s Take: These are great providers of routine health care … I’d like to see them spread like wild fire … and, I’d be all for government run “free clinics” in under-served urban and rural area.
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Tags:Disruptive Innovation, health care, Minute Clinics
Posted in Disruptive Innovation, Health & Nutrition, Health Care / Medical Insurance | 3 Comments »
June 28, 2012
Punch line: adidas is under fire after debuting an athletic shoe that contains rubber ankle shackles. adidas calls the shoe quirky and lighthearted, but consumers liken the shoe to slavery shackles. Despite initially defending the shoe, adidas has pulled the shoe from the Fall/Winter 2012 line, bowing to the power of consumers.
* * * * *
Excerpted from brandchannel.com’s, “Adidas Sparks Uproar with Shackled ‘Slavery Shoe’”
adidas is under fire after posting a picture of its upcoming JS Roundhouse Mids on the adidas Originals Facebook page, designed by Jeremy Scott.
It’s not the colors or name that’s offending, but the rubber shackles attached to them that remind some observers (such as the Rev. Jesse Jackson) of the ankle chains that imprisoned African American slaves. That the “adidas” name is also part of the “shackles” is raising hackles (and heckles).
Even so, the brand defended the design and the designer. “Jeremy Scott is renowned as a designer whose style is quirky and lighthearted … Any suggestion that this is linked to slavery is untruthful.”
Nevertheless, despite initially defending the designer, adidas is pulling the shoe, stating: “We apologize if people are offended by the design and we are withdrawing our plans to make them available in the marketplace.”
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Tags:adidas, fashion, running, shoes
Posted in Mktg - Product & Innovation | Leave a Comment »
June 27, 2012
Last week, the Fed releases its triennial report on consumer finances.
The headline was “Family net worth drops 40% to $77,000”
My first reaction: is the median net worth of American families that high? I would have expected the median to have been way, way lower.
Reading through the FRB report I stumbled on an interesting factoid:
The median net worth of college graduates is just short of $200,000.
The median net worth of non-college graduates with HS diplomas is about $60,000.
If you attribute the difference — $140,000 — to earning a college degree …. then, it looks like college at least pays for itself over time … and arguably, provides a positive return.
Hmmm.
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Tags:college economics, FRB Survey of Consumer Finances, net wort
Posted in Education - Academics | Leave a Comment »
June 26, 2012
Punch Line: Start-ups are pitching software to retailers that, with the use of in-store Wi-fi, will be able to track shoppers’ path and movements through the store. Retailers would also get information about which websites consumers are visiting while at different places in store – which would help explain which products consumers may be testing in-store, but buying online. Manufacturers will also be interested for the ability to directly target consumers with digital coupons or ads as they walk through the store. Shopper privacy is the one area that hasn’t been “thought through” yet.
* * * * *
Excerpted from WSJ, “New Wi-fi Pitch: Tracker”
Companies that develop Wi-Fi networks have a new pitch for retailers and marketers: Use the technology to keep tabs on customers, just as Amazon.com Inc. tracks online shoppers … Venues like stores, malls and airports are installing Wi-Fi networks to please smartphone-toting shoppers, who use them to get faster Internet access and avoid cellular-data charges. Wi-Fi lets the network operator keep tabs on what users are doing—from where they’re standing to what websites they’re viewing. That lets retailers learn in what aisle shoppers are most likely to point their iPhone’s Web browser to Amazon.com. Mall owners have a new way to judge which storefronts attract the most foot traffic. And owners of Wi-Fi networks can turn their antennas into virtual billboards, charging a premium for ads sent to users’ phones in prime locations.
Other companies are developing technology known as “heat mapping,” which allows organizations with big Wi-Fi networks to identify customer locations and traffic patterns. It works by triangulating phone signals received by different Wi-Fi bases.
A start-up … goes even further. It offers software that will let retailers track which websites a shopper visits when using a store’s Wi-Fi network and then overlay that information with data showing where the shopper is in the store. The resulting “heat maps” could show which products are most vulnerable to being tried out in the store but ultimately bought for less online.
Retailers that find shoppers are navigating to a particular e-commerce website could buy additional advertising on that website. Meanwhile, a department store that learns many of its customers log on to Amazon.com while in the electronics department could move an additional store employee to that area. “We’re trying to understand not only physically where they’re going within the store but also where they’re going virtually within that shopping experience.”
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Thanks to GEA for feeding the lead
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Tags:digital tracking, shopping behavior
Posted in Mktg - Consumer Behavior | Leave a Comment »
June 25, 2012
First, a couple of disclaimers: it’s way early to put much stock in polls … and Rasmussen leans right.
That said, last week, for the first time, the percentage of folks who strongly disapprove of Obama’s job performance exceeds the total percentage of folks who approve – either somewhat or very.
Why this is significant: many researchers argue that only the”top box”, i.e. “strongly”, are all that have statistical merit … think “net promoter index”.
So, the fact the strong disapprovers out number total approvers is a big deal … at least statistically.
I bet Rasmussen will even miss this critical relationship …
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Tags:net promoters index, top box effect strongly disapprove of Obama's job performance
Posted in Obama, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »
June 22, 2012
OK, here’s this week’s unemployment claims headline:
“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 387,000.
The prior week’s figure was revised up to 389,000 from the previously reported 386,000.”
Said differentlt: Unemployment claims (387,000) increased by 1,000 over last week’s reported number (386,000) … but last week’s reported number (386,000) was revised up by 3,000 to 389,000 … so, this week’s number is not an increase of 1,000, it’s a decrease of 2,000.
C’mon man.
My bet: this week’s number 387,000 will be revised upward next week.
That’s a safe bet, since the BLS has under-reported initial unemployment claims for 66 out of the last 67 weeks.
Here’s the recap for the past 7 weeks:
Bottom line: a consistent bias – maybe statistical, maybe political – that provides Obama with jobs’ headlines more favorable than reality
Either the BLS has the worst statisticians on the face of the earth, or they’ve become political hacks.
You decide …
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Tags:BLS, cookin' the books, political bias, statistical bias, unemployment claims
Posted in BLS, Employment - Jobs | Leave a Comment »
June 22, 2012
Punch line: Dollar Shave Club is to shaving what Netflix is to renting movies. A disruptive business model and innovative launch in the digital space have made Dollar Shave Club a threat to the big wig razor brands who are still calling an additional blade innovation (see the Flashback link below for a view on blades’ innovation)
* * * * *
Excerpted from channelnomics.com’s, “Shaving and the Power of Viral Marketing”
… Dollar Shave Club, a disruptive idea … turns the expensive and drab process of buying men’s razors into a Netflix’s-like business model. For a set low-price per month, DSC sends members new high quality razors.
What makes Dollar Shave Club so unique is how it was launched. In March, DSC posted a video written by and starring company founder Mike Dublin. In going after personal hygiene giants like Gillette and Schick, Dublin had to get people’s attention out of the gate. His opening line – and every line thereafter – captured attention and have racked up 5 million views.
click to view video
After the video went viral, Dublin was featured in scores of mainstream news and business reports. So great was demand that DSC had to delay adding new members for weeks while it increased support capacity … This a great example of excellent marketing that came at a low cost and high returns.
Solution providers often see marketing as an expensive proposition only big vendors can afford. Even when they do engage in marketing, the products are rather stiff and unimaginative, which leads to unfulfilled expectations.
Other examples of companies who have taken advantage of viral marketing: Microsoft’s “Smoked by Window’s Phone” and CalNet’s Wally Cleaver videos. So before you dismiss the notion of marketing – viral, video or otherwise – think about what Dollar Shave Club, Microsoft and CalNet did. A little creativity can go a long way.
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* * * * * *
Flashback: Onion.com “We’re Going to 5 Blades”
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Tags:business models, Dollar Shave Club, Gillette, Innovation
Posted in Mktg - Product & Innovation | Leave a Comment »
June 21, 2012
The answer is obvious, right?
They take up more seats, require more server time, and eat more food.
Why do I ask?
Virtually all articles re: ObamaCare are saying “at least save the popular parts like allowing adult children on their parents’ policies until they are 26”.
First, the term “adult-children” gives me the creeps. But, that’s beside the point.
I don’t care if insurance companies have to carry 26 year olds on their parents’ policies, but I don’t understand why you & I have to pay for it … not the adult-children’s parents.
Now, practically all employer-sponsored health insurance plans charge premiums in tiers: employee only, employee plus spouse, employee plus children, and employee plus spouse and children. Note: it doesn’t matter if the employee has 1 child or a dozen children … same premium.
Say what?
For example, the United Healthcare plan through Georgetown — which is probably pretty typical — charges:
Note that it costs $7,346 to tack a spouse (or equivalent) — presumably an adult — onto an employee’s policy.
Then it costs an additional $5,746 to tack one or more children onto the policy.
Said differently, it costs $5,746 to add one child to the policy and nothing to add more kids to the policy.
So, those kids are free, right?
Only in Obama Land.
Each additional kid probably costs about the same as the first one — $5,746.
That unpaid cost simply gets spread across all policy holders in the form of higher premiums.
So, back to the 26 year old adult-children …. I’m ok if they get tacked onto their parents’ policies and pay $5,746 … but, I’m not ok being forced to pay for them.
All of which raises a broader issue: Why are children of any age riding free on health insurance policies? Why not charge $5,746 for all kids, not just the first one?
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Tags:adult-children, health insurance, kids go free
Posted in Health Care / Medical Insurance | 1 Comment »
June 21, 2012
Punch line: A UK online service matches budget conscience companies with eager-to-work MBA’s, creating an innovative solution to the economic challenges that companies and MBA’s are facing.
* * * * *
Excerpted from WSJ, “Short on Staff? Rent and MBA”
For just a few hundred dollars a day, you can rent an M.B.A.
Appealing to companies keeping a close eye on staff costs, online service MBAandCo.com allows firms to retain business-school graduates … to work on consulting gigs with minimal outlay and no long-term commitment.
Given the tight job market in Europe (and much of the rest of the world), the three-year-old website now boasts more than 10,000 members, all of whom have at least five years of professional experience and an advanced degree. The freelancers themselves must have graduated from a top-100 business school, as ranked by the Financial Times. Past clients have included Virgin Media, Stolichnaya Vodka and Ogilvy & Mather, as well as small venture capital-backed firms, the company says.
Workers are attracted by the promise of a flexible schedule and the opportunity to trade in days filled with meetings in favor of hands-on work. When the alternative may be no employment at all, it looks like a particularly good deal.
The company uses preferences and an algorithm to determine who might be most compatible, offering clients a shortlist of potential freelancers. Costs vary by experience and academic pedigree.
Would you consider “renting” an M.B.A. to work on projects? If you are an M.B.A. is this something you’d consider?
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Posted in MBAs | Leave a Comment »
June 20, 2012
I’m ambivalent about Obama’s decision to, in effect, implement the Dream Act despite it’s rejection by Congress.
I’m ok with parts of it — like legalizing those who serve in the military — but I’m not that keen on presidents completely ignoring the Constitution.
Immigration politics aside, I’m interested in the statistics … specifically, the impact of Obama’s move on the BLS’ reported unemployment rates.
Most sources are estimating that just short of 1 million illegals fall into Obama’s stick-around policy — over 16 years old, younger than 30.
Those people now — by the stroke of Obama’s pen — qualify as “in the American labor force” … the denominator of the unemployment rate calculation.
Let’s do some simple math …
The BLS says that there are currently 155 million people in the labor force … according to the last BLS report, 142.3 million were employed … 12.7 million unemployed … for an 8.2% unemployment rate.
What happens when the 1 million newly minted legals get thrown into the statistical mix?
Worst case: if all are currently unemployed … then the unemployment rate jumps to 8.8% … 13.7 unemployed divided by 156 million in the labor force.
Best case: if only 11% are unemployed — the current UE rate for Hispanics … then the unemployment rate increases slightly to about 8.25% … 12.81 unemployed divided by 156 million in the labor force.
Most like (statistically): somewhere between the best and worst cases … probably a 25% unemployment rate for the new legals … bumping the UE rate by about .1/10th of a percentage point.
Most likely (politically): the BLS will “forget” to add the new legals to the labor force until, say, January 2013.
That’s the case that I’m betting on … watch the labor force numbers to see if I’m right … they should bump up a million when June numbers get reported … but they won’t!
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Tags:Dream Act, Illegals, Obama, unemployment rate
Posted in BLS, Employment - Jobs, Unemployment | Leave a Comment »
June 19, 2012
Michael Francis helped make Target a roaring success. So, JC Penney CEO Ron Johnson offered him a $12 million signing bonus to jump ships. Francis took the bait.
Bad decision …except for the $12 million … which Francis gets before the tax rates jump on Jan. 1.
Now, Francis taking the fall for Johnson’s “no sales” strategy’s failure to ignite consumer interest.
Johnson’s still claiming that his idea is fine but it wasn’t marketed right. That there was a failure to communicate.
After all, a sleek logo and aggressive “retail list price maintenance” worked at Apple … so why shouldn’t it work at a commodity rag place like JCP?
Excerpted from BrandChannel:
J. C. Penney ousted its JC Penney brand president, Michael Francis.
Francis was hired last October “at great expense” — a whopping $12 million signing bonus — from Target.
He is seen as taking the fall for his boss, company CEO Ron Johnson, the former Apple top retailer who oversaw JCP’s new brand strategy in January.
Johnson who championed the idea of killing coupons and sales in favor of “fair and square pricing” (a reference to its logo), so-called “month long value” and “everyday low” pricing.
JCP recently scrapped that strategy and is re-embracing the dreaded s-word — “sale.”
CEO Johnson “will assume direct responsibility and oversight of the company’s marketing and merchandising functions.”
Ken’s Take: If I were JCP, I would have fired the Apple guy and kept the target guy … eventually, they’ll fire the CEO, too … and probably promote their VP Finance to interim CEO … as soon as it becomes evident that the critical Christmas season is a bust
* * * * *
In case you missed it, I was on NPR a couple of weeks ago commenting on the JCP strategy.
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Posted in Mktg - Brands, Retailing | 7 Comments »
June 19, 2012
The airlines industry — in aggregate — hasn’t made money.
Think about that for a second.
There have been some brief periods of prosperity, but longer stretches of losses … some pretty deep.
Makes sense when you think about the number of airlines that that have consolidated, gone through bankruptcy or fallen off the radar screen (think, Pan Am, Eastern, TWA)
The irony is that we feel gouged by airlines … especially when they start charging us for bags and peanuts.
Side note: “ancillary revenue” supplements the flight by another $18 per person on a 100-passenger flight.
That includes fees for checked baggage, seat assignments, ticket penalties and revenue from cargo.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, baggage fees for the U.S. airline industry last year totaled a hefty $3.4 billion, or roughly $5 for every passenger boarded.
Cancellation and change fees totaled $2.4 billion, or more than $3 for every passenger.
Source: WSJ
What’s the problem?
First, there are pricing pressures.
In the past 15 years, fares haven’t come close to matching inflation.
In other words, “real” prices in the industry have stayed flat or declined.
That makes sense …
In the airlines, there’s a huge amount of capacity … something close to a commodity product … with high fixed costs and virtually no marginal costs.
Since one more passenger.doesn’t cost you anything except, maybe a cup of coffee, there’s great temptation to sell seats at rock bottom prices — just to fill them.
Further, there’s the Southwest factor. Legacy airlines (think United or American) have big infrastructures, huge hub-and-spoke networks, old fuel – inefficient planes, and high cost, unionized employees. Southwest’s cost-effective operations — point-to-point network, fuel-efficient 737s, happy employees — changed the pricing game.
Then, think about fuel costs — generally high, and subject to wide, unpredictable swings.
According to the WSJ, “fuel now is by far the biggest cost for airlines. , the tickets and fees of 29% of passengers pay just for the fuel to make the trip.
Airline gas mileage has improved over the years, the result of filling more seats on each flight, replacing multiple trips on small planes with fewer trips on larger aircraft and replacing older planes with newer, more fuel-efficient jets.
In 2000, U.S. airlines burned 28.6 gallons of jet fuel per passenger. Last year, that improved to 22.5 gallons per passenger. “
Add on maintenance that keeps the planes safe and government fees and taxes (think TSA) and the bottom line is that there is very little wiggle room on the plane for profit.
Put it all together, and airlines — the well run ones — are only able to convert less than 1% of revenues into profits.
Source: WSJ
Probably not what Wilbur & Orville had in mind …
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Tags:airline economics, airlines, fuel costs, pricing
Posted in Airlines, PVP - Concepts, frameworks, examples | 2 Comments »
June 18, 2012
Team Obama says you shouldn’t give a bride & groom a toaster or impersonal cash … rather, you should make a donation – in their namse – to O’s re-election campaign.
Yeah, right …
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Tags:Obama 2012, wedding presents
Posted in Laughs | 1 Comment »
June 18, 2012
Punch line: Democrats and Republicans have wildly different taste when it comes to certain brands. Politicians are starting to see the value in understanding these differences, and the link to voters’ decision making process.
* * * * *
Excerpted from brandchannel.com’s, “Brand Decision 2012: Dems are from Starbucks, Republicans are from Dunkin’”
America is settling in for a long summer of campaigning between the Democratic candidate President Obama and the Grand Old Party’s Mitt Romney.
News of minor flubs by candidates and those who work for them will come up at bars, barbecues, and ice-cream joints across the land (or be completely avoided, for everyone’s safety).
… Members of the two political parties don’t just disagree on their candidates. They also mostly disagree on the brands they love, though there are three that help bring them together. Next time a president wants to have a bipartisan summit of some sort, he or she might want to involve Coke, Apple, and Visa.
Both candidates and brands have never fought harder for our affection and our votes, … It’s never been more important to understand why people make the choices that they do. Brands can learn a lot by having a deeper understanding of the deep-seated connections that drive our decision-making.
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Tags:Brands, Dunkin' Donuts, political parties, Starbucks
Posted in Mktg - Brands, Politics - General | Leave a Comment »
June 15, 2012
Yesterday, the BLS reported that it’s revising last week’s estimate of new unemployment claims up by 3,000 … or about 1%
We’ve been pointing out this glaring statistical bias for weeks.
Finally, some other media sources have finally jumped on the bandwagon and researched the issue historically.
Turns out that the weekly jobless claims number has now been revised up 20 weeks in a row and 65 out of the last 66 weeks.
Hmmm.
Why is it important?
Because it means the Feds are consistently under-reporting weekly unemployment claims’ changes … making things look rosier than they really are.
May be an innocent error but, geez, wouldn’t you think the statisticians would have caught on to the bias by now?
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Tags:BLS, cookin' the books, unemployment claims
Posted in BLS, Employment - Jobs, Unemployment | Leave a Comment »
June 15, 2012
Excerpted from Jones Lang LaSalle Retail Research: Digital Dynamics
With rising gas prices – many consumers are buying more products online, as a way to get low prices and save gas – especially when shipping costs are low.
But, the trend toward consumers researching products online, reading reviews and searching for the best deals locally, is growing.
The attractiveness of this practice lies in consumers’ desire for immediate gratification as well as the ability to save on shipping costs by buying local.
Researchers estimate that this trend – aptly called “web-influenced sales” – will generate almost $1.1 trillion in U.S. sales this year and by 2015 will represent approximately 44 percent of total retail sales, or $1.6 trillion.
The most important actions for local retailers are to ensure their products show up online, that the site reflects accurate availability, and that the online and in-store experiences are as seamless as possible.
The rewards are direct – not only do shoppers come in for the researched product, they also stick around to buy other items once in-store.
Forrester Research reported that 45 percent of shoppers interviewed said they bought extra items once in a store, spending, on average, $154 on additional purchases.
Side note: By coincidence, I just had a so-called “cross channel” experience.
My cable modem died and I didn’t want to wait a couple of days for an online purchase … so, I reluctantly trekked to Best Buy.
As expected, BB’s prices were a tad high … but, the salesperson was quickly authorized to meet Amazon’s online price … so, my cost adders above Amazon were gas to the store and Maryland’s 6% sales tax (ouch).
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Tags:Commerce 3.0, cross-channel commerce, JLL
Posted in Internet Marketing - eCommerce - | 1 Comment »
June 14, 2012
According to Michael Barone, writing in RCP:
President Obama recently attended his 150th fundraiser.
That’s more than the number attended by the last four presidents put together.
Imagine the upside if the guy focused on doing good, on attacking the country’s real problems …
You know, on being president instead of just running for president.
If he wants the job so badly, why doesn’t he try doing it?
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Tags:campaigning, fundraisers, Obama
Posted in 2012 Campaign, Obama | Leave a Comment »
June 14, 2012
Couple of charts posted by Prof. Mark Perry caught my eye …
In one post, Prof. Perry charted college enrollment rates and tuitions.
Both slope upward,
Supply and demand ?
Maybe.
* * * * *
Keep the above red line (tuitions) in mind as you glance at the chart below: grade inflation.
The grades’ line also slopes up.
Sure looks like — as tuitions are rising — colleges are dishing out more high grades.
Cause & effect or just a coincidence?
Hmmm
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Posted in Education - Academics | Leave a Comment »
June 14, 2012
These days, it’s popular to pile on Facebook because of its noteworthy IPO.
Amazing the number of people who knew that FB was overvalued.
Yeah, right.
An article last week in the WSJ harped that the Days of Wild User Growth Appear Over at Facebook … that Facebook’s user growth rate in the U.S. is slowing sharply.
May be true … but, it’s also true that “Facebook is already a dominant Web platform and they’ve got significant Internet penetration today. ”
Consider:
- Approximately 56% of Facebook’s 2011 ad revenue of $3.1 billion came from the U.S. … that’s about half of Facebook’s revenue.
- Facebook has already has 71% of all 221 million U.S. Internet users,
- In April, U.S. unique visitors to the Facebook website increased to 158 million, up 5% from a year earlier.
- Facebook users spend more than six hours a month on the site …. Google users spend about 4 hours per month on Google-related sites including YouTube.
- not all activity on Facebook takes place directly on Facebook.com … there are other websites and apps linked to FB accounts.
- Facebook is experiencing substantial growth in countries such as India and Brazil
I’m not a big Facebook fan, but you gotta be impressed by the numbers that they’ve put on the board.
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Tags:engagement, Facebook, users
Posted in Internet - Soc Networking | Leave a Comment »
June 13, 2012
Punch line: Claiming the title of the first user to hit 25 Million followers on twitter, Lady Gaga has an army of fans who rely on social media.
Gaga is now launching her own social media site, LittleMonsters.com.
The site will be similar to Pinterest and Tumblr, and will eventually be monetized.
Advertisers will be able to use LittleMonsters.com to reach Gaga’s 25 Million global followers with products and services specifically targeted at these consumers.
In the never-ending world of social media trends, this innovation opens up new opportunities for marketers around the world.
*****
Excerpted from brandchannel, “Lady Gaga Gets Ready to Unveil Little Monsters Social Network.”
Lady Gaga is launching her social network, LittleMonsters.com this summer, as her fame catapults to 25 million followers on Twitter — the first user to hit that milestone.
Still invite-only platform in beta with fewer than 100,000 users, sneak peeks at the site’s design show a highly visual interface that’s similar to Pinterest, with a collage of tiled photos that when scrolled over, link to each Little Monster’s user profile. Each profile page … includes a Calendar, Monsters (other members in their network), Messages, Events, What’s Hot and New on the site plus Gaga News, other exclusive content, and a link to the Monster Code (of behavior). Members can “like” someone else’s post, share it on other social networks, comment and help each other’s content go viral across the network.
The secret of Little Monsters … is how it’s aggregating a global network of digital identities, platforms and passions into one community, united by their passion for Brand Gaga — it’s as much about them and inspiring and connecting with each other, so not a platform for idolatry.
Naturally, it will also appeal to advertisers, and the community will be monetized. Founders believe there is strong advertising potential by using top influencers, instead of Lady Gaga herself. “The provocative and eccentric pop icon with her 50 million Facebook fans and 25 million Twitter followers, is the ultimate mediator and moderator for a generation that has never known a Web-free world.” After all, they were all born this way — digital natives to the core.
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Tags:Lady Gaga, LittleMonsters, social networking
Posted in Internet - Soc Networking | Leave a Comment »
June 12, 2012
Article in the NY Times concluded that Obama has a tailwind because shifting demographics work to his advantage …
This fall’s election will be a contest pitting “demographics versus economics.”
White working-class voters have gotten seriously squeezed by high unemployment and stagnant or declining incomes.
But, the number of working-class whites is shrinking and minority voters have edged up as a share of the population … the combined effects of immigration and disparate birthrates.
Comprising 89 percent of the electorate in 1976, whites had fallen to 74 percent four years ago. During the same period, Hispanics grew from 1 percent of the electorate to 9 percent.
In 12 battleground states, the proportion of votes cast by working-class whites, a group Mr. Obama lost lopsidedly in 2008, will drop by three percentage points this fall.
A number of states are urbanizing and losing their historically large rural conservative vote.
Somehow, it doesn’t seem like a good trend when “working class” people — regardless of their race — simultaneously get squeezed economically and lose their voting clout …
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Tags:demographics, Economics, Obama's tailwind
Posted in 2012 Campaign, Demograhics, Economics | Leave a Comment »
June 11, 2012
Yeah, I’ve been harping on this but it has my attention and I’m dismayed that the mass media hasn’t picked up on it …
Last Thursday’s BLS release on Unemployment Claims did it again … revised upward the prior week’s estimate.
Let’s look at the numbers for the past couple of weeks:
In each of the past 5 weeks — maybe longer, I just started tracking then — the so-called “Advance” estimate of weekly unemployment claims eventually got revised upward … by a fairly consistent 1%.
There’s a name for a consistent unidirectional error in forecasts.
It’s called SYSTEMATIC STATISTICAL BIAS.
So, you gotta wonder: why haven’t the crack statisticians at the BLS noticed the bias and started correcting for it?
Either they’re incompetent, or they’re as biased as they’re data.
Why does it matter?
Because the “headline numbers” each week are calculated by subtracting the advance number — which is consistently understated — from the prior week’s final number — which is consistently raised up.
In other words, there is a consistent bias to report bigger drops in unemployment claims than are real … and in 2 of the past 4 weeks, to report drops in weekly unemployment gains when there were actually increases.
Hmmm.
No wonder the President thinks the private economy is doing fine.
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Tags:BLS, cookin' the books, private economy is doing fine, weekly unemployment claims
Posted in BLS, Employment - Jobs, Unemployment | Leave a Comment »
June 8, 2012
According to Prof. Mark Perry …
Last year, Professor Rojstaczer and co-author Christopher Healy published a research article in the Teachers College Record titled “Where A Is Ordinary: The Evolution of American College and University Grading, 1940–2009.”
The main conclusion of the paper is illustrated by the chart below showing the rising share of A letter grades over time at American colleges, from 15% in 1940 to 43% by 2008.
Starting in about 1998, the letter grade A became the most common college grade.
Ken’s Take: Note the Bs, Ds and Fs have stayed relatively constant, but Cs have declined … mirroring the increase in As,
Back when I was in college, a grade of C was referred to as a “Gentleman’s C” …. not too good, not too bad … not a source of pride, nor a disgrace … just right for a gentleman who didn’t want to work too hard.
Think George Bush … and John Kerry.
Now, I guess even gentlemen are getting As.
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Tags:gentleman Cs, grade inflation
Posted in Education - Academics | 3 Comments »
June 8, 2012
According to Fidelity, a 65-year-old couple retiring this year on a $75,000 annual household income, will be getting about $29,970 in annual Social Security payments.
With an average life expectancy of about 80 years, that grosses up to about $450,000 in lifetime Social Security benefits.
Not bad,
Except …
Many retirees rely on Social Security benefits as their primary source of income, and …
Fidelity estimates that a 65-year-old couple retiring this year is will need $240,000 to cover medical expenses throughout retirement.
So, for most retiring couples, the majority of Social Security payments could go toward health care costs.
Bottom line: Start saving …
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Tags:healtcare costs, social security
Posted in Social Security | Leave a Comment »
June 7, 2012
First, the bad news … you may have missed it, but Ginger the Taco Bell Chihuahua died a couple of years ago … 2009 to be precise … here’s the obit.
The bug-eyed dog who pitched 2 tacos for 99 cents must be turning over in her grave.
click to view Ginger pitching
Why?
Well, according to the AP …Taco Bell, is going upscale.
The chain plans to rollout “gourmet Mexican” menu additions created by celebrity chef Lorena Garcia … venturing onto the turf of Chipotle and Qdoba which are known for higher-quality ingredients.
It’s a departure from such standards as tacos, burritos and chalupas that Taco Bell’s core young-adult customers crave.
But, the Cantina Bell line could find a niche between Taco Bell’s less-expensive core items and the more-expensive fare at Mexican restaurants such as Chipotle and Qdoba.
The menu additions are bigger than the chain’s regular burritos … and will take a bigger bite out of the wallet: The Cantina Burrito Bowl and Cantina Burrito, offered with chicken or steak, will sell for nearly $5 apiece.
Taco Bell executives acknowledged that the push for quality will draw some skepticism. … especially following a yearlong sales slump stemming from a lawsuit that raised questions about its meat filling.
Ken’s Take:
(1) C’mon man, you’re Taco Bell!
(2) Next, they’ll start using real meat.
(3) No quiero, Taco Bell … if it’s going upscale.
I’m taking the under on this repositioning.
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Tags:Chihuahua, Chipotle, repositioning, Taco Bell
Posted in Mktg - Positioning, Restaurants | Leave a Comment »
June 7, 2012
Punch line: Companies flock to social media, hoping that people will ‘like’ them and provide them with close-bud references.
Well, it didn’t take long for social network pool to start getting polluted.
Now, when you click that like icon, you may be signing up for spam or triggering a virus.
That might dampen some social media enthusiasm …
* * * * *
Excerpted from Business Week …
Two years ago, e-mail was the format of choice for spam peddling diets, sexual enhancement, and get-rich scams.
Better filters have since banished many of the unwanted missives from in-boxes.
Instead, scammers are turning to social media sites that are often poorly equipped to deal with the influx.
“Social spam can be a lot more effective than e-mail spam”
Spammers create as many as 40 percent of the accounts on social-media sites.
About 8 percent of messages sent via social pages are spam, approximately twice the volume of six months ago.
Spammers use the sharing features on social sites to spread their messages.
Click on a spammer’s link on Facebook (FB), and it may ask you to “like” or “share” a page, or to allow an app to gain access to your profile.
By clicking on a link, some users may unwittingly “like” the spam, a practice security experts call “likejacking.”
On Pinterest, spam often lurks in the embedded links attached to photos, making it tricky for users to spot.
Be careful who or what you ‘like’ …!
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Tags:Like, social media, social networking, spam, viruses
Posted in Internet - General, Internet - Soc Networking, Internet Marketing - eCommerce - | Leave a Comment »
June 6, 2012
OK, you gotta go way back to 1969, but then, 88% of the U.S. population was represented on a taxable return — either as a taxpayer or a dependent.
Now, according to the Heritage Foundation, that number is down to about 50%.
While Obama’s policies (and the recession) have ticked us to a non-taxpaying majority, the blame (or credit, depending on your perspective) belongs to Bush … when he took office in 2001, about 2/3s of the population were represented on taxpaying returns … when he left office in 2009, we were close to the 50 / 50 split.
While the Dems like to harp on the tax breaks to millionaires and billionaires, a whopping 15% of the population benefited by being taken off the tax rolls.
Maybe the economics are sensible, but the political dynamics aren’t …
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Tags:non-tax payers, What percentage of Americans don't pay Federal income taxes?
Posted in Tax Loopholes, Taxes | 2 Comments »
June 6, 2012
Certainly you’ve heard about Mayor Bloomberg’s action to ban take-out soft drinks bigger than 16 ounces.
Many folks have pointed out the obvious idiocies, e.g. will folks be allowed to buy more than one 16 ounce soft drink … or will their be a limit of one?
Hmmm.
I’m worried about a bigger issue: what happens to free refills?
Surely “infinite” is bigger than 16 ounces.
Will restaurants be required to stop giving free refills?
I’ve always put the free refill on the list with electricity and the 3-points line as the greatest innovations ever.
Banning free refills would get me to take to the streets, for sure.
* * * * *
Industry profitability?
While on the subject. I wonder what will happen to industry profitability.
The biggest sizes are the biggest profit generators … cups are a big part of the cost structure and cup costs are fairly constant across sizes … the soda itself costs only pennies … and the ice is essentially free.
So, making folks downsize will certainly hurt margins … unless, of course, prices are jacked up … which they will be.
* * * * *
Cola – not OK, weed – OK
Only in NYC
According to the NYTimes …
The New York Police Department, the mayor and the city’s top prosecutors endorsed a proposal to decriminalize the open possession of small amounts of marijuana, giving an unexpected lift to an effort by Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo to cut down on the number of people arrested.
You just can’t make this stuff up.
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Tags:Bloomberg, free refills, super-size ban
Posted in Beverages - Soft Drinks, Laws - Very Strange | Leave a Comment »
June 5, 2012
The chickens came home to roost last Friday when the BLS had to gulp and (1) revise downward March and April jobs data, and (2) boost their count participants to the job market — the statistical aberration that was making the unemployment rate look like it was going down
Last Friday’s dismal jobs report shouldn’t have been much of a surprise to loyal readers. As we’ve said often, CEOs are dismayed by Team Obama’s economic, regulatory and pro-union policies and won’t do any serious hiring while Obama is in power. Period.
For the record, the Homa Files pitched this case over 2 years ago in a post titled: “Why private sector jobs won’t be coming back any time soon … Hint: it’s called passive aggressive resistance” … the punch lines:
Given the Administration’s anti-corporate rhetoric, actions, and proposed game-changing rules, I doubt that many CEOs will be taking on added costs and risks to boost the administration.
More likely, they will let unemployment continue to creep along, and will slow roll the process of rehiring.
Corporate chieftains will sit back and watch the President squirm and spin his “4 million jobs – saved or created”. As Rev. Wright would say “the chickens will have come home to roost”. Passively aggressive resistance at its very best.
Unfortunately, that means we’ll be seeing high unemployment for some time – at least through the 2012 Presidential elections.
The full original post is worth another read !
* * * * *
Ken’s current take:
Certainly there won’t be any meaningful hiring until the 2012. elections are in the book.
CEO heels are dug in. I’ve heard cocktail party chatter like “Each job added is a vote for Obama … Fool me once, shame on you … fool me twice, shame on me”
CEOs started to relent a bit when the Congress tilted GOP and Obama extended the Bush tax cuts. (Whatever happened to Immelt’s job creation task force?)
But, recent moves – e.g. stopping Boeing’s move to South Carolina, stumping again for higher taxes, especially on off-shore profits – have more than offset any momentum.
We’ll be stuck with unemployment in the 8s until 2013 … or until there’s a substantial policy roll-back .
And, the latter just ain’t gonna happen …
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Tags:BLS, Obama, unemployment
Posted in 2012 Campaign, Employment - Jobs, Obama | Leave a Comment »
June 5, 2012
Earlier this week, President Obama honored Bob Dylan with a Presidential Medal of Freedom award.
Brought back memories of my Princeton graduation.
It was during the Viet Nam War days … no academic robes, — just “together for peace” armbands … honorary degree recipient: Bob Dylan.
It was was a year of locusts in New Jersey .. and, they were chirping loudly.
That provided inspiration for Dylan’s commemorative song : Day of the Locusts:
As I stepped to the stage to pick up my degree
And the locusts sang off in the distance
Yeah the locusts sang such a sweet melody
Oh, the locusts sang off in the distance
Yeah, the locusts sang and they were singing for me.
I put down my robe, picked up my diploma
Took hold of my sweetheart and away we did drive
Straight for the hills, the black hills of Dakota
Sure was glad to get out of there alive
Man, that was a long time ago.
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Tags:Day of the Locusts, Dylan, Freedom Award, Princeton University
Posted in Ken - Misc., Personalities | Leave a Comment »
June 4, 2012
Don’t faint, I wasn’t talking politics.
The topic on Marketplace was JC Penney’s decision to supplement their “fair & square – no sales” strategy with Friday sales.
My predictable reaction:
Kenneth Homa: Well now their basic proposition is they’re not going to have sales, except for when they have sales.
Reporter: Ken Homa teaches marketing at Georgetown’s McDonough School of Business.
Homa: I don’t know how they can possibly communicate that clearly to any consumers
click to hear the 2-minute podcast or read the full transcript
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Tags:EDLP, JC Penney, NPR
Posted in Mktg - Promotion, NPR, Retailing | 1 Comment »
June 1, 2012
The BLS reports May’s unemployment number at 8:30 this morning.
If the headline is “Unemployment rate clicks down to 8%” … I’ll scream.
You may remember that job growth was anemic last month (under 125,000), but the unemployment rate dipped to 8.1% as more than 350,000 quit looking for jobs.
In advance of today’s BLS report …
The Commerce Dept revised down its Q1 GDP estimate to 1.9% … … its original report a month ago was an increase of 2.2%.
ADP reported 133,000 new jobs … after revising its prior month estimate down by 6,000.
Gallup’s mid-May unemployment rate rate hovered around 8.2%.
And, unemployment claims for last week increased by 10,000 … after revising the prior week’s claims up (of course).
My bet: miraculously, the unemployment rate will stay constant at 8.1% … though every other piece of data says it it should bump up.
We’ll see.
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Tags:BLS cookin' the books, employment, unemployment
Posted in BLS, Employment - Jobs, Unemployment | Leave a Comment »
June 1, 2012
According to AdAge …
JC Penney is ramping up its promotional messaging in the wake of a dismal first quarter.
The retailer has added "Best Price Fridays" to its calendar
Certain products are marked down on those days, and the lower prices are in effect until the product sells out.
"The additional Best Price Fridays equates to adding promotions and is a step away from the company’s pricing strategy, suggesting that the company is willing to forgo its original thinking."
Store associates also have been instructed to place stickers with new prices for best price and month-long value items next to, rather than on top of, original prices.
The new approach will better highlight savings for customers so that they can … "Do the Math" .
"The change in strategy is an admission that the company’s existing pricing strategy has flaws — less than 120 days since Ron Johnson’s new model took course on Feb. 1."
In discussing first-quarter results, executives admitted there has been confusion surrounding its pricing strategy and lack of coupons.
Shocker: Shoppers like deals and find it incredible (i.e. not credible) when a promotions-intensive retailer claims to have “seen the light”.
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Tags:coupons, deals, fair & square, JC Penney, promotions
Posted in Retailing | 1 Comment »
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The Homa Files 