July 17, 2015
Got to thinking about this since recently ….
Amazon Prime is pushing hard for sign-ups and online activity.
Conter-indicator: Recently, I’ve done more store-shopping than I have for a while.
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Bought a TV from Best Buy online and satisfied my need for instant gratification by picking it up at a local store.
Glad I did, because the TV had an “issue” and needed to be replaced … a quick 2nd trip to the store got me up & running with virtually no hassle.
Bought a new boat motor at West Marine.
Shopped for one online, wanted to touch the real thing.
Glad that I did because I ended up having a seasoned pro salesman introduce me to a motor technology that I didn’t even knew existed – eco-friendly propane powered outboards.
Bought one.
That said, my 30-something kids scoff that they by everything online.
Sound familiar?
OK, so what’s the answer?
What percentage of retail sales are now being done online?
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Posted in eCommerce, Online Marketing, Retailing | Leave a Comment »
July 16, 2015
The Obama-friendly MSM has been trying its best to hype the deal as the most consequential foreign policy act in history … or at least the past hundred years.
Republicans and Israelis are ranting doom and gloom. The former largely for political reasons; the latter with legitimate concerns that they’re toast.
So, I’ve been feeling a bit guilty that I can’t get revved up on the issue
Thought Obama’s press conference yesterday might get me interested.
For what it’s worth, here’s my take …
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Posted in Iran, Israel, Obama, Obama Administration | 3 Comments »
July 14, 2015
Time for a little shameless retro self-promotion.
Here’s the back-story …
The year was 1988.
We were living in Connecticut, so I took my then young sons to the Princeton-Yale basketball game … hoping to hook them on Ivy League colleges.
Walking in, some students were signing up volunteers for the half-time shooting contest.
Urged on by my family, I threw my name into the ring.
They called my name … I beat 2 other contestants … and was invited to the “Finals” to compete for 2 round-trip tickets on American Airlines.
Lay-ups were worth 1 point, free throws were worth 3, and shots from the 3-point line were worth 7.
I figured that 18 points would win it.
My strategy: rapid-fire 8 free throws … and make 6 of them.
I practiced and knew I could do it.
Under game day pressure, i missed 4 of 7 free throws, and had no choice but to head for the 3-point line.
Bottom line: SWOOSH ! 7 points … for a total of 16.
Just enough to win the crown and a trip to Las Vegas.
Best of all: my sons were in the stands to see it all.
Since you probably weren’t there, click the pic or link below to see the most exciting 45 seconds in sports history.
click to view video
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Best part of all: my sons were in the stands to see it all.
Worst part: It’s been downhill since …
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Posted in Gona Fides, Ken Memorabilia, Sports & Athletics | 1 Comment »
July 13, 2015
In a CNBC round-up of analyst stock picks, one dude was high on Lulumon because of its product “innovations” like the “Stuff Your Bra”.
That caught my eye, of course.
At first, I thought this post was going to be about false advertising … not by Lulumon, by its customers.
Turns out that Lulumon’s “innovation” isn’t about faux-enhancement… it’s about practicality.
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Posted in Clothes - garments, Innovation - Creativity, Sports & Athletics, Yoga | 1 Comment »
July 10, 2015
The Inspector General for the Social Security Administration released a report on the SSA’s track record for detecting and collecting overpayments – amounts paid to people in excess of what they’re entitled to receive.
Here’s the good news …
“Generally, SSA attempts to collect overpayments regardless of the amount.”
Here’s the bad news …
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Posted in Gov't Waste & Inefficiency, Social Security | 1 Comment »
July 9, 2015
Want to see your credit reports?
Some companies provide almost free peeks at your credit reports. Typically, you have to sign up for a credit checking or identity theft program …. and then cancel your subscription within 7 or 30 days to avoid getting billed.
There’s also a low hassle way …
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Posted in Credit Bureaus, Credit Reports, Hacked - Hackers | Leave a Comment »
July 8, 2015
According to a Google Consumer Survey reported in the NY Times …
Just over 1 in 5 first-marriage brides keep their maiden names rather than take their hubby’s surname.
The trend has been slowly inching up for the past couple of decades.
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What’s driving the trend?
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Posted in Marriage - families, Names, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »
July 7, 2015
First, some background …
The tests I give my students always include some questions that can reasonably be tagged “memorization”.
Some students are repulsed by them them and shout the cultural refrain: “Don’t memorize anything that you can look up.”
The apparent thinking: You’ve only got a limited amount of space in your brain, so don’t clog it with an overload of information … only store the stuff you can’t look-up.
What’s wrong with that argument?
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Posted in Cognition, Cognitive behavior, Digital amnesia, Memory | Leave a Comment »
July 6, 2015
YouGov ran a poll asking a national sample which states were viewed favorably … and which were viewed unfavorably.
Then, they ranked states based on the net difference between favorable and unfavorable views.
The winner: sunny paradise Hawaii.
Interestingly, the rest of the top 10 is dominated by northern and mountain states.
Guess which state has the lowest favorability rating …
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Posted in Polls & Surveys, States, States - State Economies | Leave a Comment »
July 3, 2015
According to Chip & Dan Heath in Rotman Management article “The 4 Villains of Decision Making” …
“Research in Psychology over the last 40 years has identified a broad set of biases in our thinking that doom our decision making. If we aspire to make better choices, we must learn how these biases work and how to fight them.”
According to the Heath Brothers – academics & popular authors – there are 4 decision making villains that have to be confronted
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Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan | Leave a Comment »
July 2, 2015
A classic “framing” question from Kahneman’s Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow …
Here’s the situation:
A woman has bought two $80 tickets to the theater.
When she arrives at the theater, she opens her wallet and discovers that the tickets are missing.
$80 tickets are still available at the box office.
Will she buy two more tickets to see the play?
Most (but, not all) survey respondents answer that the woman will go home without seeing the show.
Let’s try another situation …
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Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Kahneman, Daniel, Kahneman, Daniel - Thinking Fast, Slow, Problem solving, Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow | Leave a Comment »
July 1, 2015
Everybody knows that Amazon’s free shipping program has been a resounding success.
So much so. that the company has announced that it will be moving the minimum qualifying order up from $25 to $35 … inducing shoppers to fill their carts fuller or switch to the highly profitable Amazon Prime program.
The free shipping program’s success was highly predictable based an an apparently inadvertent “matched market test” that Amazon did.
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Here’s the skinny on the Amazon’s inadvertent market test …
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Posted in Amazon, Free - Power of Free, ObamaCare, Price customization, Price elasticity, Prices | Leave a Comment »
June 30, 2015
Have you ever shelled good money for “free” air.
Bet you have.
It’s called “slack fill”.
Say, what?
Let’s start with a confession …
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Posted in Price customization, Price points, Price realization, Pricing | 1 Comment »
June 29, 2015
In this and a couple of preceding and subsequent posts, i’ll be excerpting the 13 reasons from:
Why We Make Mistakes, Joseph T. Hallinanm, Broadway Books
Today, we finish the list … ending with an old standby: The Grass Looks Greener …
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Posted in Decision-making, Problem solving, Psychology | Leave a Comment »
June 26, 2015
In this and a couple of preceding and subsequent posts, i’ll be excerpting the 13 reasons from:
Why We Make Mistakes, Joseph T. Hallinanm, Broadway Books
Today, we add reason #10 to the list. we all think we’re above average
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June 25, 2015
In this and a couple of preceding and subsequent posts, i’ll be excerpting the 13 reasons from:
Why We Make Mistakes, Joseph T. Hallinanm, Broadway Books
Today, we add reason #9 to the list. Men shoot first, then …
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June 24, 2015
In this and a couple of preceding and subsequent posts, I’m excerpting the 13 reasons from:
Why We Make Mistakes, Joseph T. Hallinanm, Broadway Books
Today, we add reasons 6, 7 and 8 to the list.
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June 23, 2015
In this and a couple of preceding and subsequent posts, I’m excerpting the 13 reasons from:
Why We Make Mistakes, Joseph T. Hallinanm, Broadway Books
Today, we add reason #5 to the list: the myth of multi-tasking…
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June 22, 2015
In this and a couple of subsequent posts, i’ll be excerpting the 13 reasons from a summer read:
Why We Make Mistakes, Joseph T. Hallinanm, Broadway Books
Today, the first 4 reasons on the list …
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June 19, 2015
As an economist by training and a political junkie by avocation, you’d think that the current hubbub re: TPA & TPP would be immediately clear to me.
Nope.
I’ve listened closely to the politicos (Paul Ryan included) talk about TPA and TPP … all they’ve done is muddle things.
After chatting with a pol-in-the-know, I think that I at least understand the questions … and the reasons for the dust-up.
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Posted in Congress - Senate, Obama Administration, TPA - TPP, Trade - Free Trade | 2 Comments »
June 18, 2015
Moneyball – the Oakland As use of data and metrics to ID undervalued players — was one of the major catalysts for the current rage around big data and data analytics.
The Houston Astro’s were one of the teams to adopt the Moneyball philosophy in a big way.
This week, the NY Times broke the story that the St. Louis Cardinals had hacked into Astro’s proprietary database.
Big news.
In fact, this hack seemed to get more media time than the Chinese jacking the personal info of all government employees.
Hmmm.
Baseball competition aside, here’s why I think there’s a big teaching point in the story …
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Posted in Baseball, Big data, Competive Advantage, Data analysis, Sports & Athletics | 2 Comments »
June 17, 2015
The most recent Census Bureau data … sorts households by income quintile … the highest quintile are “rich” households and the lowest quintile are “poor” households.
A fundamental conclusion drawn from the data: if you want to be rich, it helps to have a job and be married to someone who has one, too.
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Let’s dive into some of the details …
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Posted in Census data, Income Inequality, Jobs - Unemployment, Wealth & Riches | Leave a Comment »
June 16, 2015
During her campaign re-launch rally on Saturday, Hillary Clinton decided to take a swat at fat cats (with the present company excluded, of course).
Her applause line:
“The top-25 hedge fund managers making more than all of America’s kindergarten teachers combined.”
Really?
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Since I didn’t hear the media do much fact-checking, I took a shallow dive into the numbers.
The answer may surprise you …
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Posted in Clinton, Hedge funds, Hillary, Metrics | 3 Comments »
June 15, 2015
This came up in conversation over the weekend, so I thought a reprise was in order …
Awhile ago,, I was invited to do a radio interview on NPR.
When I told my daughter-in-law, she suggested that I request sparkling water and green M&Ms.
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I thought that was pretty funny, but didn’t know the story behind it Read the rest of this entry »
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June 12, 2015
According to ChinaSmack.com, most Hong Kong elementary school applicants are able to answer this admissions test question in the allotted 20 seconds.
Can you?
Psst: It’s ok to use scratch paper and a pen or pencil.
Stumped? Here’s the answer and the teaching point …
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June 11, 2015
Of course, it’s a trick question.
I started thinking about this a couple of weeks ago.
Heard a commercial for ‘3-Day Blinds’.
My thought: not a very compelling selling proposition when you’re up against NextDay Blinds
Then, we had a set of mini-blinds break.
Of course, being instant gratification folks, we called NextDay Blinds.
What an eye-opener …
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Posted in Brand, Branding - logos, MARKETING | Leave a Comment »
June 10, 2015
A friend reported an interesting – and very ironic – breach of credit card security.
She had one of the fancy new cards with an embedded chip intended to confound cyber-thieves.
In “normal” operations, no problems.
But, she encountered a truck-sized hole in the program .
Here’s what happened …
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Posted in Credit Cards, Cyber-security, Identity Fraud, Smart chips | Leave a Comment »
June 9, 2015
OK, I love conspiracy theories … and, here’s one for you.
According to the Baltimore Sun, “Baltimore State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby plans to seek a protective order that would block the release of Freddie Gray’s autopsy report and other “sensitive” documents as she prosecutes the six police officers involved in his arrest.”
Not surprisingly, “an attorney for one of the officers said the effort shows that “there is something in that autopsy report that they are trying to hide.””
What’s going on?
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June 8, 2015
There’s a trite sports adage:
“When these teams get together, you can throw out the record book.”
Same holds for American Pharoah … the first horse to win the Triple Crown in 44 years.
The betting odds were in AP’s favor … part wishful excitement, part herd mentality, part “uniqueness bias” that stipulated that this horse is really different from past Triple Crown contenders.
Let’s look back at the pre-race punditry …
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Posted in Horse racing, Settled Science, Sports & Athletics, Triple Crown | Leave a Comment »
June 5, 2015
In prior posts we reported how history is against American Pharoah — How often do Derby & Preakness winners nail the Triple Crown? — and how bettors like long-shots — Biases: The favorite-long shot bias … ».
Today we’ll wrap up Triple Crown Week, excerpting an interesting piece in Wired titled “Science says that American Pharoah won’t win the triple crown”
Here’s the essence of the scientific argument …
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Posted in Base Rates, Cognitive biases, Horse racing, Sports & Athletics | Leave a Comment »
June 5, 2015
In gambling and economics, there’s an observed phenomenon favorite-long shot bias.
Here’s how it works …
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Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision-making, Problem solving, Statistical Bias | 1 Comment »
June 4, 2015
On Saturday, American Pharoah will try to win the Belmont — capping off his Derby & Preakness wins to capture the oft-elusive Triple Crown.
Based on Triple Crown history, what are his chances?
The simple – but very deceiving answer is 35%.
31 horses have won both the Kentucky Derby & the Preakness …
11 of them have won the Belmont and the Triple Crown.
35% … about 1 out of 3.
That’s not bad, right?
Let’s slice the numbers a little finer …
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Posted in Cognitive biases, Horse racing, Sports & Athletics | Leave a Comment »
June 3, 2015
This is a truly amazing story of our tax dollars at work …
In case you missed the headlines, the TSA’s Inspector General dispatched an audit team to try to sneak simulated bombs and guns past the crack TSA teams at several high traffic airports.
The good news: the TSA agents sniffed out 3 of the fake weapons.
The bad news: they missed 67.
That’s a failure rate of 95.7%.
Not exactly 6-sigma performance.
Here are a couple of story snippets that got my attention …
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June 3, 2015
I used to heap high praise on Amazon. Not so much any more.
First, some background …
Free shipment time from Amazon used to be one of my primary economic indicators.
If a free shipping order arrived in 2 or 3 days, I concluded that the economy wasn’t doing so well.
Why?
Free shipments essentially fly stand-by,
If there’s space on planes & trucks then they get loaded.
If there isn’t, then the orders sit on the docks.
So, in a slow economy, orders come fast.
In a hot economy, orders take longer.
At least, that’s the way things seemed to work.
Not so predictable these days.
What’s up?
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Posted in Amazon, Customer Service, Logistics | 1 Comment »
June 2, 2015
Answer: Definitely not a Kentucky Fried Chicken.
When I heard a news blurb talking about KFC genetically raising chickens with 8 legs and 6 wings, I bought in.
I figured: smart move.
Kids devour drumsticks and wings are still one of the hottest bar foods around.
My thought: good operations move … improve the “yield” from each chicken.
Turns out that my read wasn’t the story at all …
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Posted in Brand, Brand equity, Food & Drink, KFC, Trademarks | Leave a Comment »
June 1, 2015
From the “had to see this one coming department” …
In the old days, folks who who banged computer keyboards day in and day out suffered nerve damage in their hands & wrists called carpal tunnel syndrome.
More time on tablets and phones may have abated that problem a bit … but, of course, new problems have cropped up.
Here are the son and daughter of carpal tunnel …
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May 29, 2015
The above is from the Daily Kos (except the “oh, really?” part).
I beg to differ with the reliably lib rag.
I think Carly landed some punches and precursored what the summer might look like …
Here’s what caught my eye … why I think it’s important … and, a prediction.
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Posted in 2016 Campaign, Fiorina, Carly, War on women | Leave a Comment »
May 28, 2015
According to a YouGov.com survey reported by NBC News …
Survey says: 4 in 10 Americans wouldn’t mind being publicly weighed at the airport.
Source
The results suggest that a once-unthinkable concept of differential fares based on size could become a fact of life for fliers.
Here are some verbatims:
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May 27, 2015
Over the weekend, a friend got squeezed on a flight from BWI to LAX.
Not “bumped” … “squeezed” … by a plump plus-sizer overflowing the adjacent seat.
My trim, yoga-inclined friend suggested that I reprise my posts about airlines’ pricing … hoping that the airlines would get the message this time around.
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It started awhile back when I posted Why don’t airlines charge more for these bags?
Specifically, I suggested that airlines charge passengers by weight: a base ticket price for the first 175 pounds and then $75 for each 50 pounds (or portion thereof) over the limit.
I thought I was on safe ground since a survey done for the travel website Skyscanner reported that 76% of travelers said airlines should charge overweight passengers more if they didn’t fit in a seat.
But, the idea went over like a lead-butted balloon.
Turns out that, as usual, we were just a bit ahead of the times.
Later, we reported that Samoa Air became the first airline to start charging by the pound.
For details, see Samoa Air: Pricing by weight is the ‘concept of the future’
Now, even politically correcct academicians are hopping on the scale. A Norwegian economist has suggested — in a prestigious academic journal — a “pay what you weigh” pricing plan that “would bring health, financial and environmental dividends.”
Here’s the skinny on his program …
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Tags: airlines charges, overweight bags
Posted in Airlines, Customized pricing, Mktg - Pricing | Leave a Comment »
May 26, 2015
OK, here’s a test for you …
Rank the the following by the odds that somebody who is in the group or who is exposed to the risk is likely to die.
Make #1 the highest risk of dying in the next year; make #7 the lowest risk circumstance
- For women giving birth
- For anyone thirty-five to forty-four years old
- From asbestos in schools
- For anyone for any reason
- From lightning
- For police on the job
- From airplane crashes
And the answer is …
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May 22, 2015
We’re not talking NSA tracking, we’re talking ordinary old cyber-criminals intercepting messages, seizing account numbers and passwords, and taking remote control of cell phones.
According to Knowledge @ Wharton …
Nowadays, more Americans are expected to access the Internet through a mobile device than a PC.
And, 45% of surveyed users do not see cybersecurity on their mobile devices as a threat in the same way as they see it on their computers.
The 55% couldn’t be more wrong.
Here’s why …
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May 21, 2015
As Gomer Pyle would say: “Surprise, surprise, surprise”.
The Baltimore Sun reports that Baltimore has logged 96 homicides so far this year … a 30% increase over last year.
To put that number in perspective:
Last year, Baltimore’s murder rate was 5th in the country … a rate higher than Chicago’s; trailing only Detroit, New Orleans, Newark and St. Louis.
During the same period, New York City logged 54 murders.
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Here’s a rhetorical question: What’s behind the surge?
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May 20, 2015
According to the Washington Post: Conservatives give better commencement addresses than liberals.
Drawing on a sample of 48 speeches — 30 by conservatives, 18 by liberals — the Post concludes that the right-leaning speakers stand out for five reasons …
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May 19, 2015
Hackers have figured out that anybody who is willing to shell out 5 bucks for a cup of coffee have money to burn.
So, shouldn’t be a big surprise that hackers are going right after Starbucks frequenters.
Here’s the scoop on the hack …
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Posted in Hacking - Hackers, Starbucks | 1 Comment »
May 18, 2015
At least one of them — which I tagged “hack & Done” — probably doesn’t sound as far-fetched today as they did a year ago. (The original post is reprised below)
Why?
Because sources have reported that:
Here’s the scoop …
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May 15, 2015
Since Baltimore has been in the news, here’s a flashback from the you can’t make this stuff up file …
There’s a notorious gang – the Black Guerrilla Family (BGF) — that is, one could say, well represented in the Baltimore prison population.
Well, court documents have been filed in a massive racketeering case accusing 13 female corrections officers of colluding with the BGF — seven male inmates and several outside gang members.
Colluding may be a gross understatement.
Corrections officers allegedly smuggled contraband such as cellphones, drugs, and weapons to BGFers, and turned a blind eye on the BGF leaders running the outside gang from prison.
You know, garden variety collusion between guards and prisoners.
But, it turns out that several of the guards are also accused of being literally “in bed” with the BGF inmates.
Four of the officers became pregnant with prison gang leader Tavon White’s baby.
One of them got pregnant twice.
Say, what?
The web of relationships got sufficiently complicated that the Baltimore Sun developed an extraordinary infographic.
Don’t squint, below I’ll walk you through it and give you the link.
OK, here’s a key to the info graphic …
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May 14, 2015
Back in the very old days, the Cleveland Browns had a placekicker named Lou “The Toe” Groza.
He didn’t kick soccer-style. He was an overweight “toe kicker” who played tackle when he wasn’t kicking.
Despite all of that, he earned another nickname: “Mr. Automatic” by rarely missing an extra point.
You see, kicking an extra point wasn’t a gimme in those days.
These days, every NFL kicker is Mr. Automatic.
In 2014, NFL kickers converted 99.3% of all extra point attempts.
NFL owners are looking to change that … to put some excitement back into the extra point.
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May 13, 2015
Of course, in this case, BYOB means Bring Your Own Balls
Yesterday, I posed the question: Why didn’t the NFL take the deflategate opportunity to ditch its wacky rule that allows each team to bring & use it’s own balls.
My argument, simply stated: The rule is nuts.
MLB pitchers don’t bring their own balls.
NBA shooters don’t call for their favorite balls when they step to the line.
The NFL rule is what nuns call an occasion to sin.
Put mere mortals in those situations, and guess what they’re gonna do.
You got it: SIN.
So, eliminate the temptation, right?
I got curious and searched for some background on the BYOB rule …
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Posted in Football, NFL, Rules, Sports & Athletics | 1 Comment »
May 12, 2015
In the words of Yahoo Sports:
The NFL took deflate-gate very seriously, hammering the New England Patriots with unheard of punishment in the matter of deflated footballs.
The league announced Monday that quarterback Tom Brady was suspended four games, the team was fined $1 million and will lose its 2016 first-round draft pick and a fourth-round pick in 2017.
That’s a huge punishment considering there was no evidence Brady was directly involved and the Patriots’ ownership and coach Bill Belichick weren’t involved.
Say, what?
Here’s why I think the punishment fits the crime (or, is maybe a tad on the light side) …
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May 11, 2015
Her are the top %, according to the National Center for Education Studies
Since my courses center on problem solving, I’m glad to see that it tops the list.
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